在一个小镇上,有两家诊所,李氏诊所(Lee's Clinic)和希望诊所(Hope Clinic)。在李氏诊所,患者的等待时间服从均值为 25 分钟、标准差为 8 分钟的正态分布。希望诊所患者的等待时间服从均值为 37 分钟、标准差为 4 分钟的正态分布。

  1. ((i))

    随机抽取李氏诊所的 5 名患者。求这 5 名患者的平均等待时间与随机抽取的希望诊所的一名患者的等待时间相差至少 5 分钟的概率。

    阐述使你的计算有效所需的一个假设。

    1. (main)

      求这 5 名患者的平均等待时间与随机抽取的希望诊所的一名患者的等待时间相差至少 5 分钟的概率。

    2. (assumption)

      阐述使你的计算有效所需的一个假设。

  2. ((ii))

    在特定的一天,李氏诊所共治疗了 nn(其中 n>40n > 40)名患者。利用适当的近似,求最小的 nn 值,使得最多有 40 名患者的等待时间超过 25 分钟的概率小于 0.95。

  3. ((iii))

    在李氏诊所,平均每 5 名患者中就有 1 名接受流感治疗。选取 60 个每个包含 20 名患者的样本。求每个样本中接受流感治疗的平均患者人数大于 3.5 的概率。

  4. ((iv))

    给出理由,说明正态模型是否适合用于描述来自李氏诊所和希望诊所的合并患者群体中随机抽取的患者的等待时间。

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完整解法

10((i))(main)

1. Define the random variables and find the distribution of the sample mean for Lee's Clinic.

Let LL and HH be the waiting times (in minutes) at Lee's Clinic and Hope Clinic respectively.
L∼N(25,82)L \sim \mathrm{N}(25, 8^2) and H∼N(37,42)H \sim \mathrm{N}(37, 4^2)
Let Lˉ\bar{L} be the sample mean waiting time of 55 patients at Lee's Clinic.
Lˉ∼N(25,825)≡N(25,12.8)\bar{L} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(25, \frac{8^2}{5}\right) \equiv \mathrm{N}(25, 12.8)

2. Formulate the linear combination for the difference and determine its mean and variance.

Let D=Lˉ−HD = \bar{L} - H.
E(D)=E(Lˉ)−E(H)=25−37=−12\mathrm{E}(D) = \mathrm{E}(\bar{L}) - \mathrm{E}(H) = 25 - 37 = -12
Var(D)=Var(Lˉ)+Var(H)=12.8+16=28.8\mathrm{Var}(D) = \mathrm{Var}(\bar{L}) + \mathrm{Var}(H) = 12.8 + 16 = 28.8
Therefore, D∼N(−12,28.8)D \sim \mathrm{N}(-12, 28.8).

3. Set up the probability expression for a difference of at least 5 minutes.

The probability that the difference is at least 55 minutes is given by P(∣Lˉ−H∣≥5)\mathrm{P}(|\bar{L} - H| \ge 5).
P(∣D∣≥5)=P(D≤−5)+P(D≥5)\mathrm{P}(|D| \ge 5) = \mathrm{P}(D \le -5) + \mathrm{P}(D \ge 5)

4. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator.

Using a graphing calculator for D∼N(−12,28.8)D \sim \mathrm{N}(-12, 28.8):
P(D≤−5)≈0.90393\mathrm{P}(D \le -5) \approx 0.90393
P(D≥5)≈0.000768\mathrm{P}(D \ge 5) \approx 0.000768
Total Probability =0.90393+0.000768=0.90470≈0.905= 0.90393 + 0.000768 = 0.90470 \approx 0.905 (to 3 s.f.)
(Alternatively, 1−P(−5<D<5)=1−0.095299≈0.9051 - \mathrm{P}(-5 < D < 5) = 1 - 0.095299 \approx 0.905)

答案

0.9050.905

10((i))(assumption)

1. State the assumption required for combining the distributions of two different random variables

To calculate the variance of the difference Lˉ−H\bar{L} - H, we must assume that the random variables are independent.

Assumption: The waiting time of a patient at Lee's Clinic is independent of the waiting time of a patient at Hope Clinic.

答案

The waiting time of a randomly selected patient at Lee's Clinic is independent of the waiting time of a randomly selected patient at Hope Clinic.

10((ii))

1. Identify the probability of the given condition and define the binomial distribution.

Let WLW_L be the waiting time of a patient at Lee's Clinic. We are given WL∼N(25,82)W_L \sim \mathrm{N}(25, 8^2).
Since the normal distribution is symmetric about its mean, the probability that a patient waits more than 25 minutes is P(WL>25)=0.5\mathrm{P}(W_L > 25) = 0.5.
Let XX be the number of patients with waiting times of more than 25 minutes out of nn patients.
Then X∼B(n,0.5)X \sim \mathrm{B}(n, 0.5).

2. State the suitable normal approximation.

Since n>40n > 40, np=0.5n>5np = 0.5n > 5 and n(1−p)=0.5n>5n(1-p) = 0.5n > 5, XX can be approximated by a normal distribution:
X∼N(np,np(1−p))X \sim \mathrm{N}(np, np(1-p))
X∼N(0.5n,0.25n)X \sim \mathrm{N}(0.5n, 0.25n) approximately.

3. Formulate the probability inequality using continuity correction and standardise.

We are given P(X≤40)<0.95\mathrm{P}(X \le 40) < 0.95.
Applying continuity correction for the approximation:
P(X<40.5)<0.95\mathrm{P}(X < 40.5) < 0.95
Standardising the variable:
P(Z<40.5−0.5n0.25n)<0.95\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{40.5 - 0.5n}{\sqrt{0.25n}}\right) < 0.95

4. Find the critical value from the standard normal distribution and simplify the inequality.

From the standard normal distribution, P(Z<1.64485)≈0.95\mathrm{P}(Z < 1.64485) \approx 0.95.
Thus, we require:
40.5−0.5n0.5n<1.64485\frac{40.5 - 0.5n}{0.5\sqrt{n}} < 1.64485
Since 0.5n>00.5\sqrt{n} > 0, we can multiply both sides by it:
40.5−0.5n<0.82243n40.5 - 0.5n < 0.82243\sqrt{n}
0.5n+0.82243n−40.5>00.5n + 0.82243\sqrt{n} - 40.5 > 0

5. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the least integer $n$.

Let y=ny = \sqrt{n}. The inequality becomes:
0.5y2+0.82243y−40.5>00.5y^2 + 0.82243y - 40.5 > 0
Solving the quadratic equation 0.5y2+0.82243y−40.5=00.5y^2 + 0.82243y - 40.5 = 0:
y=−0.82243+0.822432−4(0.5)(−40.5)2(0.5)y = \frac{-0.82243 + \sqrt{0.82243^2 - 4(0.5)(-40.5)}}{2(0.5)}
y≈8.215 or y≈−9.860 (rejected as y>0)y \approx 8.215 \text{ or } y \approx -9.860 \text{ (rejected as } y > 0)
So we need y>8.215y > 8.215, which means:
n>8.215\sqrt{n} > 8.215
n>67.48n > 67.48
Since nn must be an integer, the least value of nn is 68.

答案

n=68n = 68

10((iii))

1. Define the distribution for the number of influenza patients in a single sample.

Let XX be the number of patients treated for influenza in a sample of 20 patients.
Given that the probability of a patient being treated for influenza is 15=0.2\frac{1}{5} = 0.2,
X∼B(20,0.2)X \sim \mathrm{B}(20, 0.2)

E(X)=np=20(0.2)=4\mathrm{E}(X) = np = 20(0.2) = 4
Var(X)=np(1−p)=20(0.2)(0.8)=3.2\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p) = 20(0.2)(0.8) = 3.2

2. State the approximate distribution of the sample mean using the Central Limit Theorem.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the average number of influenza patients per sample for n=60n = 60 samples.
Since the number of samples n=60n = 60 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed.

E(Xˉ)=E(X)=4\mathrm{E}(\bar{X}) = \mathrm{E}(X) = 4
Var(Xˉ)=Var(X)n=3.260=475\mathrm{Var}(\bar{X}) = \frac{\mathrm{Var}(X)}{n} = \frac{3.2}{60} = \frac{4}{75}

Therefore, Xˉ∼N(4,475)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(4, \frac{4}{75}\right) approximately.

3. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is greater than 3.5.

We want to find P(Xˉ>3.5)\mathrm{P}(\bar{X} > 3.5).

Using a graphing calculator,
P(Xˉ>3.5)≈0.98480≈0.985\mathrm{P}(\bar{X} > 3.5) \approx 0.98480 \approx 0.985 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

0.9850.985

10((iv))

1. State the inappropriateness of the normal model and provide the reasoning based on the mixture of two distributions with different means.

A normal model is not likely to be appropriate.

The waiting times of patients at Lee's Clinic and Hope Clinic follow normal distributions with significantly different means (25 minutes and 37 minutes) and different standard deviations. The combined group will consist of a mixture of these two distinct distributions, which will likely result in a bimodal (two-peaked) or skewed distribution rather than the symmetric, unimodal, bell-shaped curve required for a normal model.

答案

No, a normal model is not likely to be appropriate because the distribution of the combined group is likely to be bimodal due to the two populations having significantly different means.

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