捕鱼公司 A 有两种类型的渔船:“标准型”渔船和“大型”渔船。在一次典型的捕鱼航行中,各渔船捕获的鱼量均呈正态分布,其均值和标准差如表所示。 捕鱼公司 B 与捕鱼公司 A 在同一海域作业。 然而,公司 B 拥有公司 A 两种渔船的改进版本:“高级标准型”渔船和“高级大型”渔船。在一次捕鱼航行中,高级标准型渔船的捕鱼量是标准型渔船的 3 倍,高级大型渔船的捕鱼量是大型渔船的 2 倍。
- (a)
如果一艘标准型渔船返航时捕获的鱼量超过 400 kg,则称为“丰收”。丰收发生的概率为 8%。证明 。
- (b)
在一次特定的捕鱼航行中,公司 A 派出了 3 艘标准型渔船和 2 艘大型渔船,目标是捕获至少 2100 kg 的鱼。求这些渔船能够达到目标的概率。
- (c)
陈述你在部分 (b) 的计算中所需要的一个假设。
- (d)
公司 B 派出了 1 艘高级标准型渔船 and 1 艘高级大型渔船,目标同样是捕获至少 2100 kg 的鱼。求这两艘渔船能够达到目标的概率。
- (e)
已知在随机选择的 次捕鱼航行样本中,一艘大型渔船的平均捕鱼量小于 552 kg 的概率至少为 0.7。求 的最小可能值。
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完整解法
10(a)
1. Define the random variable and set up the probability equation using the given information
Let be the amount of fish caught by a Standard vessel in kg.
Given
2. Standardise the variable and express the probability in terms of $Z$
3. Use the inverse normal function to find the z-value and solve for $\sigma$
From the inverse normal distribution (or GC):
(shown)
10(b)
1. Define the random variable for the total catch and calculate its expected value and variance.
Let be the total catch of 3 Standard vessels and 2 Large vessels. Since the vessels are distinct, .
2. Determine the distribution of $T$ and calculate the probability of meeting the target.
Since and are normally distributed, is also normally distributed.
We want to find .
Using a graphing calculator,
10(c)
1. State the key statistical assumption made when combining the random variables for the different vessels.
The calculation of the variance of the total catch () relies on adding the individual variances, which requires the random variables to be independent.
The amount of fish caught by each of the vessels is independent of one another.
10(d)
1. Formulate the expectation of the new random variable $T$ for the total catch of the two Premium vessels.
Let be the total catch of the Premium-Standard and Premium-Large vessels.
Since the vessels catch 3 times and 2 times their standard counterparts respectively, .
2. Calculate the variance of $T$.
Using the more exact value of from part (a):
(Note: Using the shown value gives , which is also acceptable.)
3. Find the probability that the total catch is at least 2100kg.
We want to find .
Using the normal cumulative distribution function on a graphing calculator:
0.348
10(e)
1. State the distribution of the sample mean $\bar{Y}$.
Let be the amount of fish caught by a Large vessel on a typical trip.
We are given .
Let be the sample mean catch over randomly chosen trips.
Since the parent population is normal, the sample mean follows a normal distribution exactly:
2. Set up the probability inequality and standardise the variable.
We are given that .
Standardising the normal variable:
3. Solve the inequality to find the least possible integer value of $n$.
Using the inverse normal distribution, the -value corresponding to a cumulative probability of is approximately .
Since must be an integer (representing the number of fishing trips), the least possible value of is .
(Alternatively, by using a graphing calculator table to evaluate for integer values of : when , prob ; when , prob . Hence .)
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