Fishing Company A has two types of fishing vessels, the "Standard" vessel and the "Large" vessel. The amount of fish caught by the respective vessels on a typical fishing trip are normally distributed with means and standard deviations as shown in the table. Fishing Company B operates in the same seas as Fishing Company A. However, Company B has the improved versions of the two types of fishing vessels that Company A has: the "Premium-Standard" vessel and the "Premium-Large" vessel. In a fishing trip, the Premium-Standard vessel is capable of catching 3 times as much fish as the Standard vessel and the Premium-Large vessel is capable of catching 2 times as much fish as Large vessel.

  1. (a)

    If a Standard vessel returns with more than 400kg of fish, it is called a Bumper catch. Bumper catches occur 8% of the time. Show that σ≈71.2\sigma \approx 71.2.

  2. (b)

    On a particular fishing trip, Company A sends out 3 Standard vessels and 2 Large vessels, with a target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that the fishing vessels are able to meet their target.

  3. (c)

    State an assumption needed in your calculation in part (b).

  4. (d)

    Company B sends out 1 Premium-Standard vessel and 1 Premium-Large vessel, with the same target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that these two fishing vessels are able to meet their target.

  5. (e)

    It is found that, in a sample of nn randomly chosen fishing trips, the probability that the average catch of a Large vessel being less than 552kg is at least 0.7. Find the least possible value of nn.

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Worked solution

10(a)

1. Define the random variable and set up the probability equation using the given information

Let XX be the amount of fish caught by a Standard vessel in kg.
X∼N(300,σ2)X \sim \mathrm{N}(300, \sigma^2)
Given P(X>400)=0.08\mathrm{P}(X > 400) = 0.08

2. Standardise the variable and express the probability in terms of $Z$

P(Z>400−300σ)=0.08\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{400 - 300}{\sigma}\right) = 0.08
P(Z<100σ)=1−0.08=0.92\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{100}{\sigma}\right) = 1 - 0.08 = 0.92

3. Use the inverse normal function to find the z-value and solve for $\sigma$

From the inverse normal distribution (or GC):
100σ≈1.40507\frac{100}{\sigma} \approx 1.40507
σ=1001.40507≈71.171\sigma = \frac{100}{1.40507} \approx 71.171
σ≈71.2 (shown)\sigma \approx 71.2 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

σ≈71.2\sigma \approx 71.2 (shown)

10(b)

1. Define the random variable for the total catch and calculate its expected value and variance.

Let TT be the total catch of 3 Standard vessels and 2 Large vessels. Since the vessels are distinct, T=S1+S2+S3+L1+L2T = S_1 + S_2 + S_3 + L_1 + L_2.

E(T)=3E(S)+2E(L)=3(300)+2(540)=1980 kg\begin{align*} \mathrm{E}(T) &= 3\mathrm{E}(S) + 2\mathrm{E}(L)\\ &= 3(300) + 2(540)\\ &= 1980 \text{ kg} \end{align*} Var(T)=3Var(S)+2Var(L)=3(71.22)+2(1102)=15208.32+24200=39408.32\begin{align*} \mathrm{Var}(T) &= 3\mathrm{Var}(S) + 2\mathrm{Var}(L)\\ &= 3(71.2^2) + 2(110^2)\\ &= 15208.32 + 24200\\ &= 39408.32 \end{align*}

2. Determine the distribution of $T$ and calculate the probability of meeting the target.

Since SS and LL are normally distributed, TT is also normally distributed.
T∼N(1980,39408.32)T \sim \mathrm{N}(1980, 39408.32)
We want to find P(T≥2100)\mathrm{P}(T \ge 2100).
Using a graphing calculator,
P(T≥2100)≈0.27276\mathrm{P}(T \ge 2100) \approx 0.27276
P(T≥2100)=0.273 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(T \ge 2100) = 0.273 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.2730.273

10(c)

1. State the key statistical assumption made when combining the random variables for the different vessels.

The calculation of the variance of the total catch (S1+S2+S3+L1+L2S_1 + S_2 + S_3 + L_1 + L_2) relies on adding the individual variances, which requires the random variables to be independent.

Answer

The amount of fish caught by each of the vessels is independent of one another.

10(d)

1. Formulate the expectation of the new random variable $T$ for the total catch of the two Premium vessels.

Let TT be the total catch of the Premium-Standard and Premium-Large vessels.
Since the vessels catch 3 times and 2 times their standard counterparts respectively, T=3S+2LT = 3S + 2L.
E(T)=3E(S)+2E(L)\text{E}(T) = 3\text{E}(S) + 2\text{E}(L)
E(T)=3(300)+2(540)=1980\text{E}(T) = 3(300) + 2(540) = 1980

2. Calculate the variance of $T$.

Var(T)=32Var(S)+22Var(L)\text{Var}(T) = 3^2\text{Var}(S) + 2^2\text{Var}(L)
Using the more exact value of σ=71.171\sigma = 71.171 from part (a):
Var(T)=9(71.171)2+4(110)2\text{Var}(T) = 9(71.171)^2 + 4(110)^2
Var(T)≈45588+48400=93988\text{Var}(T) \approx 45588 + 48400 = 93988
(Note: Using the shown value σ=71.2\sigma = 71.2 gives Var(T)≈94025\text{Var}(T) \approx 94025, which is also acceptable.)

3. Find the probability that the total catch is at least 2100kg.

T∼N(1980,93988)T \sim \text{N}(1980, 93988)
We want to find P(T≥2100)\text{P}(T \ge 2100).
Using the normal cumulative distribution function on a graphing calculator:
P(T≥2100)=0.34773...≈0.348 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(T \ge 2100) = 0.34773... \approx 0.348 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.348

10(e)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean $\bar{Y}$.

Let YY be the amount of fish caught by a Large vessel on a typical trip.
We are given Y∼N(540,1102)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(540, 110^2).
Let Yˉ\bar{Y} be the sample mean catch over nn randomly chosen trips.
Since the parent population is normal, the sample mean follows a normal distribution exactly:
Yˉ∼N(540,1102n)\bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(540, \frac{110^2}{n}\right)

2. Set up the probability inequality and standardise the variable.

We are given that P(Yˉ<552)≥0.7\mathrm{P}(\bar{Y} < 552) \ge 0.7.
Standardising the normal variable:
P(Z<552−540110/n)≥0.7\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{552 - 540}{110 / \sqrt{n}}\right) \ge 0.7
P(Z<12n110)≥0.7\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{12\sqrt{n}}{110}\right) \ge 0.7

3. Solve the inequality to find the least possible integer value of $n$.

Using the inverse normal distribution, the zz-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of 0.70.7 is approximately 0.524400.52440.
12n110≥0.52440\frac{12\sqrt{n}}{110} \ge 0.52440
n≥0.52440×11012\sqrt{n} \ge \frac{0.52440 \times 110}{12}
n≥4.8070\sqrt{n} \ge 4.8070
n≥23.107n \ge 23.107
Since nn must be an integer (representing the number of fishing trips), the least possible value of nn is 2424.

(Alternatively, by using a graphing calculator table to evaluate P(Yˉ<552)\mathrm{P}(\bar{Y} < 552) for integer values of nn: when n=23n=23, prob ≈0.6995<0.7\approx 0.6995 < 0.7; when n=24n=24, prob ≈0.7034≥0.7\approx 0.7034 \ge 0.7. Hence n=24n=24.)

Answer

2424

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