XX is a normal random variable with mean 1 and variance 1, and YY is also a normal random variable with mean μ\mu and variance 2.

  1. (a)

    Given that P(0≤X+Y<3)>0.44P(0 \le X + Y < 3) > 0.44, find the range of possible values of μ\mu.

  2. (b)

    Given instead that μ=10\mu = 10 and the probability that the sum of nn independent observations of XX exceeds 2Y2Y by at least 10 is less than 0.03, find the largest possible value of nn.

  3. (c)

    State an assumption needed for the above calculations to be valid.

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Worked solution

7(a)

1. Find the distribution of the sum $X + Y$.

Assuming XX and YY are independent (as will be stated in part (c)),
E(X+Y)=E(X)+E(Y)=1+μE(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) = 1 + \mu
Var(X+Y)=Var(X)+Var(Y)=1+2=3\text{Var}(X + Y) = \text{Var}(X) + \text{Var}(Y) = 1 + 2 = 3
Let W=X+YW = X + Y, then W∼N(1+μ,3)W \sim N(1 + \mu, 3).

2. Set up the inequality for the given probability.

We are given that P(0≤X+Y<3)>0.44P(0 \le X + Y < 3) > 0.44, which means:
P(0≤W<3)>0.44P(0 \le W < 3) > 0.44

3. Solve the inequality for $\mu$ using a graphing calculator.

Using a graphing calculator to plot the probability function Y1=normalcdf(0,3,1+X,3)Y_1 = \text{normalcdf}(0, 3, 1+X, \sqrt{3}) against μ\mu, and the line Y2=0.44Y_2 = 0.44.
Finding the points of intersection:
μ≈−1.1012andμ≈2.1012\mu \approx -1.1012 \quad \text{and} \quad \mu \approx 2.1012
From the graph, the probability Y1Y_1 is strictly greater than 0.440.44 when μ\mu is between these two values.
−1.10<μ<2.10 (to 3 s.f.)-1.10 < \mu < 2.10 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

−1.10<μ<2.10-1.10 < \mu < 2.10

7(b)

1. Formulate the normal distribution for the sum of $n$ independent observations of $X$.

Let W=X1+X2+⋯+XnW = X_1 + X_2 + \dots + X_n.
Since each Xi∼N(1,1)X_i \sim \mathrm{N}(1, 1) independently:
E(W)=n×1=n\mathrm{E}(W) = n \times 1 = n
Var(W)=n×1=n\mathrm{Var}(W) = n \times 1 = n
So W∼N(n,n)W \sim \mathrm{N}(n, n).

2. Find the distribution of the difference between $W$ and $2Y$.

Given Y∼N(10,2)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(10, 2), let V=W−2YV = W - 2Y.
E(V)=E(W)−2E(Y)=n−2(10)=n−20\mathrm{E}(V) = \mathrm{E}(W) - 2\mathrm{E}(Y) = n - 2(10) = n - 20
Var(V)=Var(W)+22Var(Y)=n+4(2)=n+8\mathrm{Var}(V) = \mathrm{Var}(W) + 2^2\mathrm{Var}(Y) = n + 4(2) = n + 8
So V∼N(n−20,n+8)V \sim \mathrm{N}(n - 20, n + 8).

3. Standardise the variable and set up an inequality using the given probability.

We are given P(W>2Y+10)<0.03\mathrm{P}(W > 2Y + 10) < 0.03, which means P(V≥10)<0.03\mathrm{P}(V \ge 10) < 0.03.
Standardising the normal variable:
P(Z≥10−(n−20)n+8)<0.03\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{10 - (n - 20)}{\sqrt{n + 8}}\right) < 0.03
P(Z≥30−nn+8)<0.03\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{30 - n}{\sqrt{n + 8}}\right) < 0.03
From the standard normal distribution, if P(Z≥z)=0.03\mathrm{P}(Z \ge z) = 0.03, then z≈1.8808z \approx 1.8808.
For the probability to be strictly less than 0.030.03, the zz-value must be strictly greater than this critical value:
30−nn+8>1.8808\frac{30 - n}{\sqrt{n + 8}} > 1.8808

4. Solve the inequality to find the largest possible integer value of $n$.

We can test values of nn or solve the equation algebraically.
If n=20n = 20:
30−2020+8=1028≈1.8898>1.8808\frac{30 - 20}{\sqrt{20 + 8}} = \frac{10}{\sqrt{28}} \approx 1.8898 > 1.8808
If n=21n = 21:
30−2121+8=929≈1.6713<1.8808\frac{30 - 21}{\sqrt{21 + 8}} = \frac{9}{\sqrt{29}} \approx 1.6713 < 1.8808
Alternatively, solving the quadratic equation (30−n)2=1.88082(n+8)(30 - n)^2 = 1.8808^2(n + 8) yields n≈20.04n \approx 20.04.
Since we need 30−nn+8>1.8808\frac{30-n}{\sqrt{n+8}} > 1.8808, we must have n≤20.04n \le 20.04.
Thus, the largest possible integer nn is 2020.

Answer

2020

7(c)

1. State the assumption necessary for the calculation of the variance of linear combinations such as $X+Y$ and $\sum X_i - 2Y$.

XX and YY are independent.

Answer

XX and YY are independent.

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