永初农场(Eng Choo Farm)的业主声称,其农场生产的鸡蛋平均每只含有 μ0\mu_0 毫克的胆固醇。 健康促进局从该农场随机抽取了 16 只鸡蛋,并测量了每只鸡蛋的胆固醇含量 xx 毫克。结果汇总如下: ∑x=2848\sum x = 2848 且 ∑x2=509884\sum x^2 = 509884。

  1. (a)

    求在 5% 的显著性水平下,业主的声称不会被拒绝的 μ0\mu_0 的取值集合。

  2. (b)

    从该农场抽取了第二个包含 36 只鸡蛋的随机样本,并测量了每只鸡蛋的胆固醇含量。样本均值和样本方差分别为 185 毫克和 120 毫克2^2。

    将两个样本合并为一个样本,求该农场生产的鸡蛋胆固醇含量的总体均值 μ\mu 毫克和总体方差 σ2\sigma^2 毫克2^2 的无偏估计。

    使用该合并样本,在 5% 显著性水平下对原假设 μ=180\mu = 180 与备择假设 μ>180\mu > 180 进行检验。求该检验的 pp 值,并结合题目背景解释该 pp 值的含义。

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完整解法

9(a)

1. Find the sample mean and unbiased estimate of variance

xˉ=∑xn=284816=178\bar{x} = \frac{\sum x}{n} = \frac{2848}{16} = 178
s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)=115(509884−2848216)=294015=196s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1}\left(\sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n}\right) = \frac{1}{15}\left(509884 - \frac{2848^2}{16}\right) = \frac{2940}{15} = 196
So the estimated standard deviation is s=14s = 14 and sn=1416=3.5\dfrac{s}{\sqrt{n}} = \dfrac{14}{\sqrt{16}} = 3.5.

2. Set up the two-tail acceptance condition

The owner claims the mean is μ0\mu_0, so we test H0:μ=μ0H_0: \mu = \mu_0 against H1:μ≠μ0H_1: \mu \neq \mu_0 (a 2-tail test) at the 5% level. Assuming the population is normal and using Z=xˉ−μ0s/nZ = \dfrac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}}, the claim is not rejected when
−1.95996<178−μ03.5<1.95996.-1.95996 < \frac{178 - \mu_0}{3.5} < 1.95996.

3. Solve the inequality for μ₀

∣178−μ0∣<1.95996×3.5=6.8599|178 - \mu_0| < 1.95996 \times 3.5 = 6.8599
178−6.8599<μ0<178+6.8599178 - 6.8599 < \mu_0 < 178 + 6.8599
171.14<μ0<184.86171.14 < \mu_0 < 184.86
Hence the set of values is {μ0:171<μ0<185}\{\mu_0 : 171 < \mu_0 < 185\}.

答案

{μ0∈R:171<μ0<185}\{\mu_0 \in \mathbb{R} : 171 < \mu_0 < 185\} (more precisely 171.14<μ0<184.86171.14 < \mu_0 < 184.86).

9(b)

1. Find the sum and sum of squares of $x$ for the second sample.

For the second sample, n2=36n_2 = 36 and xˉ2=185\bar{x}_2 = 185.
∑x2=36×185=6660\sum x_2 = 36 \times 185 = 6660

Using the biased sample variance formula 1n2(∑x22−(∑x2)2n2)=120\frac{1}{n_2}\left(\sum x_2^2 - \frac{(\sum x_2)^2}{n_2}\right) = 120:
136(∑x22−6660236)=120\frac{1}{36}\left(\sum x_2^2 - \frac{6660^2}{36}\right) = 120
∑x22=36(120)+36(1852)=4320+1232100=1236420\sum x_2^2 = 36(120) + 36(185^2) = 4320 + 1232100 = 1236420

2. Calculate the combined unbiased estimates for the population mean and variance.

For the combined sample, n=16+36=52n = 16 + 36 = 52.
∑x=2848+6660=9508\sum x = 2848 + 6660 = 9508
∑x2=509884+1236420=1746304\sum x^2 = 509884 + 1236420 = 1746304

Unbiased estimate of population mean, μ^\hat{\mu}:
xˉ=950852=237713≈182.85 mg\bar{x} = \frac{9508}{52} = \frac{2377}{13} \approx 182.85 \text{ mg}

Unbiased estimate of population variance, s2s^2:
s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n} \right)
s2=151(1746304−9508252)=151(1746304−9040206452)s^2 = \frac{1}{51} \left( 1746304 - \frac{9508^2}{52} \right) = \frac{1}{51} \left( 1746304 - \frac{90402064}{52} \right)
s2=33812221≈153.00 mg2s^2 = \frac{33812}{221} \approx 153.00 \text{ mg}^2

3. State the hypotheses and find the $p$-value using a test statistic.

H0:μ=180H_0: \mu = 180
H1:μ>180H_1: \mu > 180

Under H0H_0, since the sample size n=52n = 52 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem the sample mean is approximately normally distributed. The test statistic is:
Z=Xˉ−180s/52∼N(0,1) approximately.Z = \frac{\bar{X} - 180}{s / \sqrt{52}} \sim N(0, 1) \text{ approximately.}

Using a graphing calculator (Z-Test) with μ0=180\mu_0 = 180, xˉ=237713\bar{x} = \frac{2377}{13}, sx=33812221s_x = \sqrt{\frac{33812}{221}}, and n=52n = 52:
z≈1.659z \approx 1.659
p-value≈0.0485p\text{-value} \approx 0.0485 (to 3 s.f.)

4. Explain the meaning of the $p$-value in the context of the question.

The pp-value of 0.04850.0485 is the probability of obtaining a sample mean cholesterol content of 237713\frac{2377}{13} mg (approx. 182.8182.8 mg) or more, assuming that the true population mean cholesterol content of the eggs is 180180 mg.

答案

Unbiased estimate of population mean =237713≈183= \frac{2377}{13} \approx 183 mg; Unbiased estimate of population variance =33812221≈153= \frac{33812}{221} \approx 153 mg2^2; pp-value ≈0.0485\approx 0.0485. The pp-value is the probability of obtaining a sample mean cholesterol content of 237713\frac{2377}{13} mg or more, assuming that the true population mean cholesterol content is 180180 mg.

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