一家面包店声称每个蛋糕的平均质量为 600 克。对 10 个蛋糕进行了随机抽样检验,并确定了每个蛋糕的质量 克。结果发现:
- (i)
求 的总体均值和方差的无偏估计。
- (ii)
结果发现,有显著证据表明蛋糕的质量与 600 克不同。陈述一个必要的假设,求该检验的显著性水平所满足的不等式。
- (iii)
在某个星期日,该面包店烘焙了 100 个蛋糕,样本均值为 克,标准差为 33 克。假设如下:
在 5% 的显著性水平下进行了另一次检验,结果发现没有充分的证据表明面包店夸大了蛋糕的平均质量。
求 的最小值。
说明理由,指出是否有必要对蛋糕质量的分布做出任何假设。
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完整解法
12(i)
1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.
2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.
Unbiased estimate of population mean = , Unbiased estimate of population variance =
12(ii)
1. State the hypotheses and the necessary assumption about the population.
Let be the population mean mass of the cakes.
Since the sample size is small (), we must assume that the mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.
2. Compute the test statistic and find the p-value.
From part (i), the unbiased estimates are and (so ).
Under , using the sample variance as an estimate for the population variance, the test statistic is:
Using a graphing calculator for a two-tailed test, the -value is:
3. Formulate the inequality for the significance level.
Let be the decimal significance level of the test.
Since there is "significant evidence" that the mass differs from 600 grams, the null hypothesis is rejected.
For to be rejected, the significance level must be greater than or equal to the -value:
Assumption: The mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.
Inequality: Significance level (or )
12(iii)
1. Set up the test statistic and state the condition for insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
The hypotheses are:
For a 1-tailed test at the 5% significance level, the critical value is .
"Insufficient evidence" means we do not reject . Therefore, the test statistic must be greater than or equal to the critical value:
2. Substitute the sample parameters to find the boundary for $m$.
Using the sample standard deviation as an unbiased estimate (or population standard deviation proxy due to large ), the test statistic is .
3. State the least value of $m$.
The least value of is (to 2 d.p.).
4. Determine if any assumptions about the population distribution are necessary, providing a valid reason.
It is not necessary to assume that the masses of cakes are normally distributed.
Reason: Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal.
Least value of is .
It is not necessary to make any assumptions about the population distribution. Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed.
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