A bakery claims that the mass of a cake, on average, is 600 grams each. A random sample of 10 cakes is examined and the mass, grams, of each cake is determined. It is found that
- (i)
Find the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of .
- (ii)
It is found that there is significant evidence that the mass of the cakes differs from 600 grams. Stating a necessary assumption, find an inequality satisfied by the significance level of the test.
- (iii)
On a Sunday, the bakery baked 100 cakes, with a sample mean of grams and standard deviation of 33 grams. The hypotheses are as follows:
Another test is carried out at the 5% significance level and it is found that there is insufficient evidence that the bakery overstated the mean mass of the cakes.
Find the least value of .
Giving a reason, state whether it is necessary to make any assumptions about the distribution of the masses of cakes.
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Worked solution
12(i)
1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.
2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.
Unbiased estimate of population mean = , Unbiased estimate of population variance =
12(ii)
1. State the hypotheses and the necessary assumption about the population.
Let be the population mean mass of the cakes.
Since the sample size is small (), we must assume that the mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.
2. Compute the test statistic and find the p-value.
From part (i), the unbiased estimates are and (so ).
Under , using the sample variance as an estimate for the population variance, the test statistic is:
Using a graphing calculator for a two-tailed test, the -value is:
3. Formulate the inequality for the significance level.
Let be the decimal significance level of the test.
Since there is "significant evidence" that the mass differs from 600 grams, the null hypothesis is rejected.
For to be rejected, the significance level must be greater than or equal to the -value:
Assumption: The mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.
Inequality: Significance level (or )
12(iii)
1. Set up the test statistic and state the condition for insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
The hypotheses are:
For a 1-tailed test at the 5% significance level, the critical value is .
"Insufficient evidence" means we do not reject . Therefore, the test statistic must be greater than or equal to the critical value:
2. Substitute the sample parameters to find the boundary for $m$.
Using the sample standard deviation as an unbiased estimate (or population standard deviation proxy due to large ), the test statistic is .
3. State the least value of $m$.
The least value of is (to 2 d.p.).
4. Determine if any assumptions about the population distribution are necessary, providing a valid reason.
It is not necessary to assume that the masses of cakes are normally distributed.
Reason: Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal.
Least value of is .
It is not necessary to make any assumptions about the population distribution. Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed.
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