A bakery claims that the mass of a cake, on average, is 600 grams each. A random sample of 10 cakes is examined and the mass, xx grams, of each cake is determined. It is found that ∑(x−500)=800and∑(x−500)2=65764.\sum(x-500)=800\quad\text{and}\quad\sum(x-500)^2=65764.

  1. (i)

    Find the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of xx.

  2. (ii)

    It is found that there is significant evidence that the mass of the cakes differs from 600 grams. Stating a necessary assumption, find an inequality satisfied by the significance level of the test.

  3. (iii)

    On a Sunday, the bakery baked 100 cakes, with a sample mean of mm grams and standard deviation of 33 grams. The hypotheses are as follows:

    H0:μ=600H_0: \mu = 600

    H1:μ<600H_1: \mu < 600

    Another test is carried out at the 5% significance level and it is found that there is insufficient evidence that the bakery overstated the mean mass of the cakes.

    Find the least value of mm.

    Giving a reason, state whether it is necessary to make any assumptions about the distribution of the masses of cakes.

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Worked solution

12(i)

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.

xˉ=500+∑(x−500)n\bar{x} = 500 + \frac{\sum(x-500)}{n}
xˉ=500+80010\bar{x} = 500 + \frac{800}{10}
xˉ=580\bar{x} = 580

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.

s2=1n−1(∑(x−500)2−(∑(x−500))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum(x-500)^2 - \frac{(\sum(x-500))^2}{n} \right)
s2=19(65764−800210)s^2 = \frac{1}{9} \left( 65764 - \frac{800^2}{10} \right)
s2=19(65764−64000)s^2 = \frac{1}{9} (65764 - 64000)
s2=17649s^2 = \frac{1764}{9}
s2=196s^2 = 196

Answer

Unbiased estimate of population mean = 580580, Unbiased estimate of population variance = 196196

12(ii)

1. State the hypotheses and the necessary assumption about the population.

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of the cakes.
H0:μ=600H_0: \mu = 600
H1:μ≠600H_1: \mu \neq 600

Since the sample size n=10n = 10 is small (n<30n < 30), we must assume that the mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.

2. Compute the test statistic and find the p-value.

From part (i), the unbiased estimates are xˉ=580\bar{x} = 580 and s2=196s^2 = 196 (so s=14s = 14).

Under H0H_0, using the sample variance as an estimate for the population variance, the test statistic is:
Z=xˉ−μs/n=580−60014/10≈−4.5175Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} = \frac{580 - 600}{14/\sqrt{10}} \approx -4.5175

Using a graphing calculator for a two-tailed test, the pp-value is:
p-value=2×P(Z≤−4.5175)≈6.26×10−6p\text{-value} = 2 \times P(Z \le -4.5175) \approx 6.26 \times 10^{-6}

3. Formulate the inequality for the significance level.

Let α\alpha be the decimal significance level of the test.
Since there is "significant evidence" that the mass differs from 600 grams, the null hypothesis H0H_0 is rejected.

For H0H_0 to be rejected, the significance level must be greater than or equal to the pp-value:
α≥6.26×10−6\alpha \ge 6.26 \times 10^{-6}

Answer

Assumption: The mass of the cakes follows a normal distribution.
Inequality: Significance level α≥6.26×10−6\alpha \ge 6.26 \times 10^{-6} (or 0.000626%0.000626\%)

12(iii)

1. Set up the test statistic and state the condition for insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

The hypotheses are:
H0:μ=600H_0: \mu = 600
H1:μ<600H_1: \mu < 600

For a 1-tailed test at the 5% significance level, the critical value is z=−1.64485z = -1.64485.

"Insufficient evidence" means we do not reject H0H_0. Therefore, the test statistic must be greater than or equal to the critical value:
Zcalc≥−1.64485Z_{calc} \ge -1.64485

2. Substitute the sample parameters to find the boundary for $m$.

Using the sample standard deviation as an unbiased estimate (or population standard deviation proxy due to large nn), the test statistic is Zcalc=m−60033100Z_{calc} = \frac{m - 600}{\frac{33}{\sqrt{100}}}.

m−6003.3≥−1.64485\frac{m - 600}{3.3} \ge -1.64485
m−600≥3.3(−1.64485)m - 600 \ge 3.3(-1.64485)
m−600≥−5.4280m - 600 \ge -5.4280
m≥594.572m \ge 594.572

3. State the least value of $m$.

The least value of mm is 594.57594.57 (to 2 d.p.).

4. Determine if any assumptions about the population distribution are necessary, providing a valid reason.

It is not necessary to assume that the masses of cakes are normally distributed.
Reason: Since the sample size n=100n = 100 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normal.

Answer

Least value of mm is 594.57594.57.

It is not necessary to make any assumptions about the population distribution. Since the sample size n=100n = 100 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed.

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