在一条特定的步道上测得的电动滑板车速度(XX km/h) and 行人速度(YY km/h)服从正态分布,其均值和方差如下:

  1. ((i))

    写出 μ\mu 的值并求出 σ\sigma 的值。

  2. ((ii))

    已知测得的电动滑板车中有一半的速度与均值的差在 aa km/h 以内,求 aa。

    求 kk 的最小值,使得爱丽丝预期能够获利。

  3. ((iii))

    一名 LTA 执法人员驻守在该步道上,随机测量了 50 辆电动滑板车的速度。求第 50 辆电动滑板车是第 35 辆超过 LTA 法定限速 10 km/h 的概率。

  4. ((iv))

    在另一天,该 LTA 执法人员随机测量了 6 辆电动滑板车和 15 名行人的速度。求电动滑板车的平均速度大于所记录行人平均速度两倍的概率。

  5. ((v))

    如果 nn 很大,求随机选择的 nn 辆电动滑板车的平均速度大于 10 km/h 的概率。

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完整解法

10((i))

1. State the value of $\mu$ using the symmetry of the normal distribution.

Since Pr⁡(Y<5.2)=Pr⁡(Y≥7.0)\Pr(Y < 5.2) = \Pr(Y \ge 7.0), by the symmetry of the normal distribution, the mean μ\mu is exactly in the middle of 5.25.2 and 7.07.0.
μ=5.2+7.02=6.1\mu = \frac{5.2 + 7.0}{2} = 6.1

2. Set up an equation involving the standard normal variable $Z$ to find $\sigma$.

Given Pr⁡(Y<5.2)=0.379\Pr(Y < 5.2) = 0.379, we standardize the variable:
Pr⁡(Z<5.2−6.1σ)=0.379\Pr\left(Z < \frac{5.2 - 6.1}{\sigma}\right) = 0.379
−0.9σ≈−0.30808\frac{-0.9}{\sigma} \approx -0.30808

3. Solve for $\sigma$.

σ=−0.9−0.30808≈2.9213\sigma = \frac{-0.9}{-0.30808} \approx 2.9213
σ≈2.92 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma \approx 2.92 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

μ=6.1\mu = 6.1, σ=2.92\sigma = 2.92

10((ii))

1. Translate the 'within a of the mean' condition into a probability equation

X∼N(12.3, 9.9)X \sim \mathrm{N}(12.3,\,9.9) and we require
Pr⁡(12.3−a<X<12.3+a)=0.5.\Pr(12.3 - a < X < 12.3 + a) = 0.5.
By the symmetry of the normal curve, the two tails together carry the remaining 0.50.5, so each tail is 0.250.25:
Pr⁡(X<12.3+a)=0.75.\Pr(X < 12.3 + a) = 0.75.

2. Standardise and solve for a

Using the inverse normal (GC) with mean 12.312.3 and standard deviation 9.9\sqrt{9.9}:
12.3+a=invNorm(0.75, 12.3, 9.9)=14.422…12.3 + a = \mathrm{invNorm}(0.75,\,12.3,\,\sqrt{9.9}) = 14.422\ldots
a=14.422…−12.3=2.122…a = 14.422\ldots - 12.3 = 2.122\ldots
Equivalently, a9.9=0.6745\dfrac{a}{\sqrt{9.9}} = 0.6745, so a=0.6745×3.1464=2.12a = 0.6745 \times 3.1464 = 2.12.
a≈2.12 km/h.a \approx 2.12\text{ km/h}.

答案

a≈2.12a \approx 2.12 km/h

10((iii))

1. Find the probability that a single randomly chosen e-scooter exceeds 10 km/h.

Let XX be the speed of an e-scooter in km/h. We are given X∼N(12.3,9.9)X \sim \mathrm{N}(12.3, 9.9).
The probability that an e-scooter exceeds 10 km/h is:
p=Pr⁡(X>10)≈0.767605p = \Pr(X > 10) \approx 0.767605

2. Identify the conditions for the 50th e-scooter to be exactly the 35th one to exceed the limit.

For the 50th e-scooter to be the 35th one to exceed the speed limit, two independent events must occur sequentially:

  1. Exactly 34 out of the first 49 e-scooters exceed the speed limit.
  2. The 50th e-scooter exceeds the speed limit.

Let WW be the number of e-scooters out of the first 49 that exceed 10 km/h.
W∼B(49,0.767605)W \sim \mathrm{B}(49, 0.767605)

3. Calculate the final probability.

Required probability=Pr⁡(W=34)×Pr⁡(X>10)\text{Required probability} = \Pr(W = 34) \times \Pr(X > 10)
=[(4934)(0.767605)34(1−0.767605)15]×0.767605= \left[ \binom{49}{34} (0.767605)^{34} (1 - 0.767605)^{15} \right] \times 0.767605
=0.017114×0.767605= 0.017114 \times 0.767605
≈0.013137\approx 0.013137
≈0.0131 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.0131 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.01310.0131

10((iv))

1. Determine the mean ($\mu$) and variance ($\sigma^2$) of the pedestrian speeds from the information given in part (i).

Pr⁡(Y<5.2)=Pr⁡(Y≥7.0)=0.379\Pr(Y < 5.2) = \Pr(Y \ge 7.0) = 0.379
By the symmetry of the normal distribution:
μ=5.2+7.02=6.1\mu = \frac{5.2 + 7.0}{2} = 6.1
Using the given probability to find σ\sigma:
Pr⁡(Y<5.2)=0.379  ⟹  Pr⁡(Z<5.2−6.1σ)=0.379\Pr(Y < 5.2) = 0.379 \implies \Pr\left(Z < \frac{5.2 - 6.1}{\sigma}\right) = 0.379
Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator:
−0.9σ≈−0.308077  ⟹  σ≈2.92134\frac{-0.9}{\sigma} \approx -0.308077 \implies \sigma \approx 2.92134
σ2≈8.53425\sigma^2 \approx 8.53425

2. State the distributions for the sample means $\bar{X}$ and $\bar{Y}$.

For n=6n=6 e-scooters:
Xˉ∼N(12.3,9.96)  ⟹  Xˉ∼N(12.3,1.65)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(12.3, \frac{9.9}{6}\right) \implies \bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}(12.3, 1.65)
For n=15n=15 pedestrians:
Yˉ∼N(6.1,8.5342515)  ⟹  Yˉ∼N(6.1,0.56895)\bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(6.1, \frac{8.53425}{15}\right) \implies \bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}(6.1, 0.56895)

3. Formulate the linear combination $W = \bar{X} - 2\bar{Y}$ and calculate its expected value and variance.

Let W=Xˉ−2YˉW = \bar{X} - 2\bar{Y}.
E(W)=E(Xˉ)−2E(Yˉ)=12.3−2(6.1)=0.1\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(\bar{X}) - 2\mathrm{E}(\bar{Y}) = 12.3 - 2(6.1) = 0.1
Var(W)=Var(Xˉ)+22Var(Yˉ)=1.65+4(0.56895)=3.9258\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(\bar{X}) + 2^2\mathrm{Var}(\bar{Y}) = 1.65 + 4(0.56895) = 3.9258
Thus, W∼N(0.1,3.9258)W \sim \mathrm{N}(0.1, 3.9258).

4. Calculate the probability that the mean speed of the e-scooters is more than twice the mean speed of the pedestrians.

We need to find Pr⁡(Xˉ>2Yˉ)\Pr(\bar{X} > 2\bar{Y}), which is equivalent to Pr⁡(W>0)\Pr(W > 0).
Using a graphing calculator:
Pr⁡(W>0)≈0.52012\Pr(W > 0) \approx 0.52012
Pr⁡(W>0)=0.520 (to 3 s.f.)\Pr(W > 0) = 0.520 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.5200.520

10((v))

1. State the distribution of the sample mean $\bar{X}$.

Since the population is normally distributed, X∼N(12.3,9.9)X \sim \mathrm{N}(12.3, 9.9).
For a sample of size nn, the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is exactly normally distributed:
Xˉ∼N(12.3,9.9n)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(12.3, \frac{9.9}{n}\right)

2. Standardise the variable and evaluate the probability as $n$ becomes large.

P(Xˉ>10)=P(Z>10−12.39.9/n)=P(Z>−2.39.9n)\begin{aligned} \mathrm{P}(\bar{X} > 10) &= \mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{10 - 12.3}{\sqrt{9.9/n}}\right) \\ &= \mathrm{P}\left(Z > -\frac{2.3}{\sqrt{9.9}} \sqrt{n}\right) \end{aligned}
As n→∞n \to \infty, the term −2.39.9n→−∞-\frac{2.3}{\sqrt{9.9}} \sqrt{n} \to -\infty.
Therefore, P(Z>−∞)=1\mathrm{P}(Z > -\infty) = 1.

答案

1

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