由机器 AA 装入罐中的汤的质量(XX 克)服从均值为 μ\mu 克、标准差为 σ\sigma 克的正态分布。

  1. (i)

    已知 P(X<112)=P(X>128)=0.09121P(X < 112) = P(X > 128) = 0.09121,求 μ\mu 和 σ\sigma 的值。

  2. (ii)

    调整机器 AA 的设置,使装入罐中的汤的质量(克)现在服从均值为 125 克、标准差为 8 克的正态分布。

    随机抽取 3 罐汤。求其中 2 罐每罐的质量大于 124 克,且另一罐的质量在 120 克到 123 克之间的概率。

  3. (iii)

    抽取一个由 nn 罐汤组成的随机样本。求 nn 的最小值,使得样本中汤的平均质量超过 127 克的概率最多为 0.1。

  4. (iv)

    由机器 BB 装入包装袋中的汤的质量(YY 克)服从均值为 150 克、标准差为 7.5 克的正态分布。

    求 4 个随机抽取的包装袋中汤的总质量与 3 罐随机抽取的罐装汤总质量的 1.5 倍之差最多为 50 克的概率。

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完整解法

9(i)

1. Deduce the mean $\mu$ using the symmetry of the normal distribution.

P(X<112)=P(X>128)P(X < 112) = P(X > 128)
By the symmetry of the normal curve, the mean lies exactly halfway between 112112 and 128128:
μ=112+1282=120\mu = \frac{112 + 128}{2} = 120

2. Standardise the value $X = 112$ and set up an equation using the inverse normal function.

P(X<112)=0.09121P(X < 112) = 0.09121
Standardising the variable:
P(Z<112−120σ)=0.09121P\left(Z < \frac{112 - 120}{\sigma}\right) = 0.09121
Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator, the zz-score corresponding to a cumulative area of 0.091210.09121 is approximately −1.3333-1.3333:
−8σ=−1.3333\frac{-8}{\sigma} = -1.3333

3. Solve for the standard deviation $\sigma$.

σ=−8−1.3333=6.00 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma = \frac{-8}{-1.3333} = 6.00 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

μ=120\mu = 120, σ=6\sigma = 6

9(ii)

1. Find the probabilities of a single can satisfying each condition

Let XX be the mass of soup in a can. X∼N(125,82)X \sim \mathrm{N}(125, 8^2).
Using a graphing calculator:
P(X>124)≈0.54974P(X > 124) \approx 0.54974
P(120<X<123)≈0.13531P(120 < X < 123) \approx 0.13531

2. Calculate the combined probability for 3 randomly chosen cans

The probability that exactly 2 cans are >124 g> 124\text{ g} and 1 can is between 120 g120\text{ g} and 123 g123\text{ g} is given by:
Required probability=(32)×[P(X>124)]2×P(120<X<123)\text{Required probability} = \binom{3}{2} \times [P(X > 124)]^2 \times P(120 < X < 123)
=3×(0.54974)2×(0.13531)= 3 \times (0.54974)^2 \times (0.13531)
=0.12268…= 0.12268 \dots
≈0.123 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.123 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.1230.123

9(iii)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the sample mean mass of soup in nn cans.
Since the mass of a single can is normally distributed as N(125,82)\mathrm{N}(125, 8^2) based on the adjusted settings from part (ii),
Xˉ∼N(125,82n)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(125, \frac{8^2}{n}\right)

2. Set up the probability inequality and standardise.

We are given that P(Xˉ>127)≤0.1\mathrm{P}(\bar{X} > 127) \le 0.1.
Standardising the variable:
P(Z>127−1258/n)≤0.1\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{127 - 125}{8/\sqrt{n}}\right) \le 0.1
P(Z>n4)≤0.1\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{\sqrt{n}}{4}\right) \le 0.1

3. Use the inverse standard normal distribution to find a relationship for $n$.

From the standard normal distribution, the critical zz-value for the upper 10%10\% tail (i.e. P(Z>z)=0.1\mathrm{P}(Z > z) = 0.1) is approximately 1.281551.28155.
Thus, we require:
n4≥1.28155\frac{\sqrt{n}}{4} \ge 1.28155
n≥5.1262\sqrt{n} \ge 5.1262
n≥26.278n \ge 26.278

4. State the least integer value for $n$.

Since the sample size nn must be a whole number, the least value of nn is 2727.

答案

27

9(iv)

1. Define the linear combination for the difference and calculate its expected value.

Let TY=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4T_Y = Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3 + Y_4 be the total mass of 4 randomly chosen packets and TX=X1+X2+X3T_X = X_1 + X_2 + X_3 be the total mass of 3 randomly chosen cans.
Let W=TY−1.5TXW = T_Y - 1.5 T_X be the required difference.
Using the adjusted mean of XX from part (ii), E(X)=125\text{E}(X) = 125 and E(Y)=150\text{E}(Y) = 150.
E(W)=4E(Y)−1.5(3E(X))\text{E}(W) = 4\text{E}(Y) - 1.5(3\text{E}(X))
E(W)=4(150)−4.5(125)=600−562.5=37.5\text{E}(W) = 4(150) - 4.5(125) = 600 - 562.5 = 37.5

2. Calculate the variance of the linear combination.

Using the adjusted standard deviation of XX from part (ii), Var(X)=82=64\text{Var}(X) = 8^2 = 64 and Var(Y)=7.52=56.25\text{Var}(Y) = 7.5^2 = 56.25.
Because the samples are independent:
Var(W)=4Var(Y)+1.52(3Var(X))\text{Var}(W) = 4\text{Var}(Y) + 1.5^2(3\text{Var}(X))
Var(W)=4(56.25)+2.25(3×64)\text{Var}(W) = 4(56.25) + 2.25(3 \times 64)
Var(W)=225+2.25(192)=225+432=657\text{Var}(W) = 225 + 2.25(192) = 225 + 432 = 657

3. State the distribution of the difference and evaluate the probability.

Since linear combinations of normal variables are also normally distributed:
W∼N(37.5,657)W \sim \text{N}(37.5, 657)
We need the probability that this difference is at most 50 grams, which means −50≤W≤50-50 \le W \le 50.
P(∣W∣≤50)=P(−50≤W≤50)\text{P}(|W| \le 50) = \text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(−50≤W≤50)≈0.68679\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) \approx 0.68679
P(−50≤W≤50)=0.687 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) = 0.687 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.6870.687

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