The mass, XX grams, of soup packed into a can by machine AA is normally distributed with mean μ\mu grams and standard deviation σ\sigma grams.

  1. (i)

    Given that P(X<112)=P(X>128)=0.09121P(X < 112) = P(X > 128) = 0.09121, find the values of μ\mu and σ\sigma.

  2. (ii)

    The settings of machine AA are adjusted so that the mass of soup, in grams, packed into a can is now normally distributed with mean 125 grams and standard deviation 8 grams.

    3 cans of soup are randomly chosen. Find the probability that 2 of the cans each have a mass greater than 124 grams and the other has a mass between 120 grams and 123 grams.

  3. (iii)

    A random sample of nn cans of soup is taken. Find the least value of nn such that the probability that the sample mean mass of soup in the cans exceeds 127 grams is at most 0.1.

  4. (iv)

    The mass, YY grams, of soup packed into a packet by machine BB is normally distributed with mean 150 grams and standard deviation 7.5 grams.

    Find the probability that the total mass of soup in 4 randomly chosen packets differs from 1.5 times the total mass of soup in 3 randomly chosen cans by at most 50 grams.

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Worked solution

9(i)

1. Deduce the mean $\mu$ using the symmetry of the normal distribution.

P(X<112)=P(X>128)P(X < 112) = P(X > 128)
By the symmetry of the normal curve, the mean lies exactly halfway between 112112 and 128128:
μ=112+1282=120\mu = \frac{112 + 128}{2} = 120

2. Standardise the value $X = 112$ and set up an equation using the inverse normal function.

P(X<112)=0.09121P(X < 112) = 0.09121
Standardising the variable:
P(Z<112−120σ)=0.09121P\left(Z < \frac{112 - 120}{\sigma}\right) = 0.09121
Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator, the zz-score corresponding to a cumulative area of 0.091210.09121 is approximately −1.3333-1.3333:
−8σ=−1.3333\frac{-8}{\sigma} = -1.3333

3. Solve for the standard deviation $\sigma$.

σ=−8−1.3333=6.00 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma = \frac{-8}{-1.3333} = 6.00 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

μ=120\mu = 120, σ=6\sigma = 6

9(ii)

1. Find the probabilities of a single can satisfying each condition

Let XX be the mass of soup in a can. X∼N(125,82)X \sim \mathrm{N}(125, 8^2).
Using a graphing calculator:
P(X>124)≈0.54974P(X > 124) \approx 0.54974
P(120<X<123)≈0.13531P(120 < X < 123) \approx 0.13531

2. Calculate the combined probability for 3 randomly chosen cans

The probability that exactly 2 cans are >124 g> 124\text{ g} and 1 can is between 120 g120\text{ g} and 123 g123\text{ g} is given by:
Required probability=(32)×[P(X>124)]2×P(120<X<123)\text{Required probability} = \binom{3}{2} \times [P(X > 124)]^2 \times P(120 < X < 123)
=3×(0.54974)2×(0.13531)= 3 \times (0.54974)^2 \times (0.13531)
=0.12268…= 0.12268 \dots
≈0.123 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.123 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.1230.123

9(iii)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the sample mean mass of soup in nn cans.
Since the mass of a single can is normally distributed as N(125,82)\mathrm{N}(125, 8^2) based on the adjusted settings from part (ii),
Xˉ∼N(125,82n)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(125, \frac{8^2}{n}\right)

2. Set up the probability inequality and standardise.

We are given that P(Xˉ>127)≤0.1\mathrm{P}(\bar{X} > 127) \le 0.1.
Standardising the variable:
P(Z>127−1258/n)≤0.1\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{127 - 125}{8/\sqrt{n}}\right) \le 0.1
P(Z>n4)≤0.1\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{\sqrt{n}}{4}\right) \le 0.1

3. Use the inverse standard normal distribution to find a relationship for $n$.

From the standard normal distribution, the critical zz-value for the upper 10%10\% tail (i.e. P(Z>z)=0.1\mathrm{P}(Z > z) = 0.1) is approximately 1.281551.28155.
Thus, we require:
n4≥1.28155\frac{\sqrt{n}}{4} \ge 1.28155
n≥5.1262\sqrt{n} \ge 5.1262
n≥26.278n \ge 26.278

4. State the least integer value for $n$.

Since the sample size nn must be a whole number, the least value of nn is 2727.

Answer

27

9(iv)

1. Define the linear combination for the difference and calculate its expected value.

Let TY=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4T_Y = Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3 + Y_4 be the total mass of 4 randomly chosen packets and TX=X1+X2+X3T_X = X_1 + X_2 + X_3 be the total mass of 3 randomly chosen cans.
Let W=TY−1.5TXW = T_Y - 1.5 T_X be the required difference.
Using the adjusted mean of XX from part (ii), E(X)=125\text{E}(X) = 125 and E(Y)=150\text{E}(Y) = 150.
E(W)=4E(Y)−1.5(3E(X))\text{E}(W) = 4\text{E}(Y) - 1.5(3\text{E}(X))
E(W)=4(150)−4.5(125)=600−562.5=37.5\text{E}(W) = 4(150) - 4.5(125) = 600 - 562.5 = 37.5

2. Calculate the variance of the linear combination.

Using the adjusted standard deviation of XX from part (ii), Var(X)=82=64\text{Var}(X) = 8^2 = 64 and Var(Y)=7.52=56.25\text{Var}(Y) = 7.5^2 = 56.25.
Because the samples are independent:
Var(W)=4Var(Y)+1.52(3Var(X))\text{Var}(W) = 4\text{Var}(Y) + 1.5^2(3\text{Var}(X))
Var(W)=4(56.25)+2.25(3×64)\text{Var}(W) = 4(56.25) + 2.25(3 \times 64)
Var(W)=225+2.25(192)=225+432=657\text{Var}(W) = 225 + 2.25(192) = 225 + 432 = 657

3. State the distribution of the difference and evaluate the probability.

Since linear combinations of normal variables are also normally distributed:
W∼N(37.5,657)W \sim \text{N}(37.5, 657)
We need the probability that this difference is at most 50 grams, which means −50≤W≤50-50 \le W \le 50.
P(∣W∣≤50)=P(−50≤W≤50)\text{P}(|W| \le 50) = \text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(−50≤W≤50)≈0.68679\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) \approx 0.68679
P(−50≤W≤50)=0.687 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) = 0.687 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6870.687

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