在一次实验中,掷两个均匀的 nn 面骰子,每个骰子的面上分别标有数字 1,2,...,nn(其中 n≥4n \ge 4)。每个骰子出现的数字定义为与桌面接触的那个面上的数字。如果两个骰子出现的数字不同,则得分记为两个数字中较大的那一个,实验结束。如果两个骰子出现相同的数字,则重新投掷这两个骰子,直到得到两个不同的数字。 一次尝试定义为投掷一次这两个骰子。

  1. ((a))

    若 n=6n = 6,

    1. ((i))

      证明在两次尝试中获得 3 分的概率为 154\frac{1}{54}。

    2. ((ii))

      求得分为 3 的概率。

    3. ((iii))

      已知得分为 3,求恰好进行了四次尝试的概率。

  2. ((b))
    1. ((i))

      证明得分为“3”的概率可以表示为 an(n−b)\dfrac{a}{n(n-b)},其中 a,ba, b 为待确定的整数。

    2. ((ii))

      由此,求每个骰子最多有多少个面,使得获得 3 分的概率至少为 5%。

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完整解法

10((a))((i))

1. Calculate the probability that the first trial results in the same number on both dice.

There are 66 outcomes where both dice show the same number: (1,1),(2,2),…,(6,6)(1, 1), (2, 2), \dots, (6, 6).
P(same number in 1st trial)=636=16\text{P}(\text{same number in 1st trial}) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}

2. Calculate the probability of obtaining a score of 3 in a single trial.

For the score to be 33, the numbers must be different and the larger number must be 33.
The possible outcomes are (1,3),(2,3),(3,1),(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 1), and (3,2)(3, 2).
P(score is 3 in 2nd trial)=436=19\text{P}(\text{score is 3 in 2nd trial}) = \frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}

3. Multiply the probabilities of the two independent trials to find the overall probability.

P(score of 3 with two trials)=P(same number in 1st trial)×P(score is 3 in 2nd trial)\text{P}(\text{score of 3 with two trials}) = \text{P}(\text{same number in 1st trial}) \times \text{P}(\text{score is 3 in 2nd trial})
=16×19= \frac{1}{6} \times \frac{1}{9}
=154 (Shown)= \frac{1}{54} \text{ (Shown)}

答案

\frac{1}{54}

10((a))((ii))

1. Find the probability of obtaining a score of 3 on a single trial, and the probability of a re-roll.

A score of 3 is obtained if the dice show (1,3)(1,3), (3,1)(3,1), (2,3)(2,3), or (3,2)(3,2).
P(score 3 on one trial)=436=19P(\text{score 3 on one trial}) = \frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}
A re-roll happens if both dice show the same number (e.g. (1,1),(2,2),…,(6,6)(1,1), (2,2), \dots, (6,6)).
P(re-roll)=636=16P(\text{re-roll}) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}

2. Express the total probability as an infinite geometric series representing the score being achieved on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd trial, and so on.

P(score is 3)=P(score 3 on 1st trial)+P(score 3 on 2nd trial)+…P(\text{score is 3}) = P(\text{score 3 on 1st trial}) + P(\text{score 3 on 2nd trial}) + \dots
P(score is 3)=19+(16)(19)+(16)2(19)+…P(\text{score is 3}) = \frac{1}{9} + \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)\left(\frac{1}{9}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{9}\right) + \dots
This forms an infinite geometric series with first term a=19a = \frac{1}{9} and common ratio r=16r = \frac{1}{6}.

3. Evaluate the sum to infinity of the geometric series to find the overall probability.

S∞=a1−rS_\infty = \frac{a}{1 - r}
P(score is 3)=191−16P(\text{score is 3}) = \frac{\frac{1}{9}}{1 - \frac{1}{6}}
P(score is 3)=1956=19×65=645P(\text{score is 3}) = \frac{\frac{1}{9}}{\frac{5}{6}} = \frac{1}{9} \times \frac{6}{5} = \frac{6}{45}
P(score is 3)=215P(\text{score is 3}) = \frac{2}{15}

答案

215\frac{2}{15}

10((a))((iii))

1. Calculate the probability that the score is 3 overall (from part (a)(ii)), which forms the denominator of the conditional probability.

Let P(same)P(\text{same}) be the probability of rolling the same number on both dice in a single trial, and P(score 3)P(\text{score } 3) be the probability of rolling a score of 3 in a single trial.
P(same)=636=16P(\text{same}) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}
P(score 3 in a single toss)=P({(1,3),(3,1),(2,3),(3,2)})=436=19P(\text{score } 3 \text{ in a single toss}) = P(\{ (1,3), (3,1), (2,3), (3,2) \}) = \frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}

Summing the probabilities over all possible numbers of trials to find the overall probability that the final score is 3:
P(overall score is 3)=19+16(19)+(16)2(19)+⋯=191−16=215P(\text{overall score is 3}) = \frac{1}{9} + \frac{1}{6}\left(\frac{1}{9}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{9}\right) + \dots = \frac{\frac{1}{9}}{1 - \frac{1}{6}} = \frac{2}{15}

2. Calculate the probability of obtaining exactly four trials and a score of 3.

For exactly 4 trials, the first 3 trials must result in the same number on both dice, and the 4th trial must result in a score of 3.
P(exactly 4 trials∩score is 3)=(16)3×19=1216×19=11944P(\text{exactly 4 trials} \cap \text{score is 3}) = \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^3 \times \frac{1}{9} = \frac{1}{216} \times \frac{1}{9} = \frac{1}{1944}

3. Apply the conditional probability formula to find the required probability.

P(exactly 4 trials∣score is 3)=P(exactly 4 trials∩score is 3)P(overall score is 3)P(\text{exactly 4 trials} \mid \text{score is 3}) = \frac{P(\text{exactly 4 trials} \cap \text{score is 3})}{P(\text{overall score is 3})}
=11944215=11944×152=153888=51296= \frac{\frac{1}{1944}}{\frac{2}{15}} = \frac{1}{1944} \times \frac{15}{2} = \frac{15}{3888} = \frac{5}{1296}

答案

51296\frac{5}{1296}

10((b))((i))

1. Find the probability of obtaining a score of 3, and the probability of a tie, in a single trial.

In a single trial, to get a score of 3, the two dice must show different numbers and their maximum must be 3. The possible outcomes are (1,3),(3,1),(2,3)(1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 3), and (3,2)(3, 2).
P(score 3 in a trial)=4n2P(\text{score 3 in a trial}) = \frac{4}{n^2}
For the experiment to not end (i.e. to proceed to the next trial), both dice must show the same number. The outcomes are (1,1),(2,2),…,(n,n)(1, 1), (2, 2), \dots, (n, n).
P(same number in a trial)=nn2=1nP(\text{same number in a trial}) = \frac{n}{n^2} = \frac{1}{n}

2. Set up the infinite geometric series for the overall probability of scoring a 3.

The overall probability of scoring a 3 is the sum of the probabilities of this event happening on the 1st trial, the 2nd trial, the 3rd trial, and so on:
P(score is 3)=4n2+(1n)(4n2)+(1n)2(4n2)+…P(\text{score is } 3) = \frac{4}{n^2} + \left(\frac{1}{n}\right)\left(\frac{4}{n^2}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{n}\right)^2\left(\frac{4}{n^2}\right) + \dots
This is an infinite geometric series with first term a=4n2a = \frac{4}{n^2} and common ratio r=1nr = \frac{1}{n}.

3. Evaluate the sum to infinity and compare it to the given expression to determine $a$ and $b$.

S∞=a1−r=4n21−1nS_\infty = \frac{a}{1 - r} = \frac{\frac{4}{n^2}}{1 - \frac{1}{n}}
S∞=4n2n−1n=4n2×nn−1=4n(n−1)S_\infty = \frac{\frac{4}{n^2}}{\frac{n-1}{n}} = \frac{4}{n^2} \times \frac{n}{n-1} = \frac{4}{n(n-1)}
Comparing this with the given expression an(n−b)\frac{a}{n(n-b)}, we can see that a=4a = 4 and b=1b = 1.

答案

a=4,b=1a = 4, b = 1

10((b))((ii))

1. Determine the values of $a$ and $b$ by finding the probability of scoring a 3 (from the previous part).

The experiment ends only when the two dice show different numbers. There are n2−n=n(n−1)n^2 - n = n(n-1) such pairs, and by symmetry, each is equally likely to be the final outcome.
A score of 33 occurs for the outcome pairs (1,3)(1,3), (3,1)(3,1), (2,3)(2,3) and (3,2)(3,2), giving 44 favourable outcomes.
Thus, the probability of a score of 33 is 4n(n−1)\frac{4}{n(n-1)}.
Comparing this to an(n−b)\frac{a}{n(n-b)}, we have a=4a = 4 and b=1b = 1.

2. Set up an inequality representing the required probability condition.

We are given that the probability must be at least 5%5\%.
4n(n−1)≥0.05\frac{4}{n(n-1)} \ge 0.05
4n(n−1)≥120\frac{4}{n(n-1)} \ge \frac{1}{20}

3. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the maximum integer value of $n$.

Since n≥4n \ge 4, we know that n(n−1)>0n(n-1) > 0. Multiplying both sides by 20n(n−1)20n(n-1) gives:
80≥n2−n80 \ge n^2 - n
n2−n−80≤0n^2 - n - 80 \le 0
Solving the quadratic equation n2−n−80=0n^2 - n - 80 = 0:
n=1±(−1)2−4(1)(−80)2=1±3212n = \frac{1 \pm \sqrt{(-1)^2 - 4(1)(-80)}}{2} = \frac{1 \pm \sqrt{321}}{2}
The positive root evaluates to n≈9.458n \approx 9.458.
For the inequality to hold, we require n≤9.458n \le 9.458.
Since nn must be an integer, the greatest number of faces is n=9n = 9.

答案

9

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