在本题中,你应该写明你所使用的任何分布的参数。 一个果园销售两种品种的奇异果:A型和B型。A型和B型奇异果的质量(以克为单位)分别服从分布 N(110,62)N(110,6^2) 和 N(85,82)N(85,8^2)。假设这两个分布是相互独立的。 奇异果被随机选择并装入袋中。A型奇异果每袋装 30 个,而B型奇异果每袋装 60 个。 A型和B型奇异果的售价分别为每公斤 $25 和每公斤 $15。 该果园还生产转基因G型奇异果,每袋装 50 个。G型奇异果的质量呈同分布,均值为 90 克,标准差为 5 克。 每个礼盒包含一袋A型奇异果 and 一袋G型奇异果。如果礼盒中奇异果的总质量至少为 7.85 公斤,则该礼盒符合销售标准。

  1. (a)

    在随机选择的一袋A型奇异果中,求奇异果的平均质量在 109 克到 115 克之间的概率。

  2. (b)

    求一袋A型奇异果中一个奇异果的平均售价比一袋B型奇异果中一个奇异果的平均售价最多高出 $1.50 的概率。

  3. (c)

    随机选择 10 个礼盒。求没有一个礼盒符合销售标准的概率。

  4. (d)

    结合上下文,陈述第 (c) 部分中所使用的分布所需的近似和假设。

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完整解法

10(a)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean mass of Type A kiwis.

Let XˉA\bar{X}_A be the sample mean mass of 30 Type A kiwis.
Since the mass of a Type A kiwi follows N(110,62)N(110, 6^2),
XˉA∼N(110,6230)\bar{X}_A \sim N\left(110, \frac{6^2}{30}\right)
XˉA∼N(110,1.2)\bar{X}_A \sim N(110, 1.2)

2. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is between 109 and 115 grams.

Using a graphing calculator,
P(109<XˉA<115)≈0.81934P(109 < \bar{X}_A < 115) \approx 0.81934
≈0.819 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.819 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.819

10(b)

1. Define the random variables for the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type A and Type B kiwis.

Let Aˉ\bar{A} and Bˉ\bar{B} be the sample mean masses of kiwis in a bag of Type A (n=30n=30) and Type B (n=60n=60) respectively.
Let SAS_A and SBS_B be the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type A and Type B kiwis.

The selling prices per gram are $251000=$0.025\frac{\char36{}25}{1000} = \char36{}0.025 for Type A and $151000=$0.015\frac{\char36{}15}{1000} = \char36{}0.015 for Type B.
Therefore, SA=0.025AˉS_A = 0.025\bar{A} and SB=0.015BˉS_B = 0.015\bar{B}.

2. Find the expectation and variance for the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type A.

E(SA)=0.025×110=2.75\mathrm{E}(S_A) = 0.025 \times 110 = 2.75
Var(SA)=0.0252Var(Aˉ)=0.000625(6230)=0.00075\mathrm{Var}(S_A) = 0.025^2 \mathrm{Var}(\bar{A}) = 0.000625 \left(\frac{6^2}{30}\right) = 0.00075

3. Find the expectation and variance for the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type B.

E(SB)=0.015×85=1.275\mathrm{E}(S_B) = 0.015 \times 85 = 1.275
Var(SB)=0.0152Var(Bˉ)=0.000225(8260)=0.00024\mathrm{Var}(S_B) = 0.015^2 \mathrm{Var}(\bar{B}) = 0.000225 \left(\frac{8^2}{60}\right) = 0.00024

4. Define the distribution for the difference in average selling prices and calculate the required probability.

Let D=SA−SBD = S_A - S_B.
E(D)=2.75−1.275=1.475\mathrm{E}(D) = 2.75 - 1.275 = 1.475
Var(D)=Var(SA)+Var(SB)=0.00075+0.00024=0.00099\mathrm{Var}(D) = \mathrm{Var}(S_A) + \mathrm{Var}(S_B) = 0.00075 + 0.00024 = 0.00099

D∼N(1.475,0.00099)D \sim \mathrm{N}(1.475, 0.00099)

We require the probability that SAS_A is more than SBS_B by at most $1.50\char36{}1.50, which means 0<D⩽1.500 < D \leqslant 1.50.
P(0<D⩽1.50)≈0.78656≈0.787\mathrm{P}(0 < D \leqslant 1.50) \approx 0.78656 \approx 0.787 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

0.7870.787

10(c)

1. Find the distribution, mean, and variance of the total mass of an Assortment Box

Let MM be the total mass of the kiwis in an Assortment Box, consisting of 30 Type A kiwis and 50 Type G kiwis.

M=∑i=130Ai+∑j=150GjM = \sum_{i=1}^{30} A_i + \sum_{j=1}^{50} G_j

E(M)=30(110)+50(90)=7800\text{E}(M) = 30(110) + 50(90) = 7800
Var(M)=30(62)+50(52)=1080+1250=2330\text{Var}(M) = 30(6^2) + 50(5^2) = 1080 + 1250 = 2330
Since the sample size of Type G kiwis (n=50n=50) is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, their total mass follows an approximate normal distribution. Thus, the total mass MM is approximately normally distributed:
M∼N(7800,2330)M \sim \text{N}(7800, 2330)

2. Calculate the probability that a single Assortment Box is fit for sale

A box is fit for sale if its total mass is at least 7.85 kg=7850 g7.85 \text{ kg} = 7850 \text{ g}.
Using the normal distribution M∼N(7800,2330)M \sim \text{N}(7800, 2330):
P(M≥7850)=0.149954P(M \ge 7850) = 0.149954

3. Model the number of fit boxes with a binomial distribution and calculate the final probability

Let YY be the number of Assortment Boxes fit for sale out of 10 randomly selected boxes.
Y∼B(10,0.149954)Y \sim \text{B}(10, 0.149954)
We require the probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale (Y=0Y = 0):
P(Y=0)=(1−0.149954)10=0.19698≈0.197 (to 3 s.f.)P(Y = 0) = (1 - 0.149954)^{10} = 0.19698 \approx 0.197 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.197

10(d)

1. State the approximation needed for the distribution of the mass of Type G kiwis.

Approximation: The distribution of the masses of Type G kiwis is not given. However, since the sample size of 5050 Type G kiwis in a bag is sufficiently large (n≥30n \ge 30), we use the Central Limit Theorem to approximate the total mass of the 5050 Type G kiwis as being normally distributed.

2. State the assumption needed regarding the relationship between the masses of the kiwis.

Assumption: The question states that the masses of Type G kiwis are 'identically distributed' but does not explicitly state they are independent. We must assume that the mass of any Type G kiwi is independent of the mass of other Type G kiwis so that we can sum their variances and apply the Central Limit Theorem.
(Another valid assumption: The total mass of the bag of Type A kiwis is independent of the total mass of the bag of Type G kiwis in the same Assortment Box).

答案

Approximation: Since the sample size of 5050 is large (≥30\ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the total mass of the 5050 Type G kiwis is approximately normally distributed.

Assumption: The mass of any Type G kiwi is independent of the mass of any other Type G kiwi. (Alternatively: The masses of the Type A kiwis and Type G kiwis are independent of one another.)

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