在这道题中,你应该写明你所使用的任何分布的参数。 一个果园销售两种奇异果,分别为AA型和BB型。AA型和BB型奇异果的质量(以克为单位)分别服从分布 N(110,62)\mathrm{N}(110, 6^2) 和 N(85,82)\mathrm{N}(85, 8^2)。假设这两个分布是独立的。 奇异果被随机选择并装袋。AA型奇异果每袋装 30 个,而BB型奇异果每袋装 60 个。

  1. (a)

    在随机选择的一袋AA型奇异果中,求奇异果的平均质量在 109 克到 115 克之间的概率。

  2. (b)

    AA 型和 BB 型奇异果的售价分别为每公斤 $25 和每公斤 $15。

    求一袋 AA 型奇异果中奇异果的平均售价比一袋 BB 型奇异果中奇异果的平均售价最多高出 $1.50 的概率。

  3. (c)

    该果园还生产转基因 GG 型奇异果,每袋装有 50 个。GG 型奇异果的质量同分布,均值为 90 克,标准差为 5 克。

    每个混合礼盒包含一袋 AA 型奇异果和一袋 GG 型奇异果。如果礼盒中奇异果的总质量至少为 7.85 公斤,则该礼盒适合销售。

    随机抽取 10 个混合礼盒。求没有一个礼盒适合销售的概率。

  4. (d)

    结合具体情境,陈述第 (c) 部分所使用的分布所需的近似和假设。

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完整解法

10(a)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean mass of Type $A$ kiwis.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the mean mass of a random sample of 3030 Type AA kiwis.
Since the mass of a Type AA kiwi follows N(110,62)\mathrm{N}(110, 6^2), the sample mean is exactly normally distributed:
Xˉ∼N(110,6230)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(110, \frac{6^2}{30}\right)
Xˉ∼N(110,1.2)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 1.2)

2. Calculate the probability that the mean mass is between 109 grams and 115 grams.

Using a graphing calculator to find the normal probability:
P(109<Xˉ<115)=0.8193498…\mathrm{P}(109 < \bar{X} < 115) = 0.8193498\dots
P(109<Xˉ<115)≈0.819 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(109 < \bar{X} < 115) \approx 0.819 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.8190.819

10(b)

1. Define the random variables for the sample means of the masses of Type A and Type B kiwis.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} and Yˉ\bar{Y} be the sample means of the masses in a bag of Type AA (30 kiwis) and Type BB (60 kiwis) respectively.
Xˉ∼N(110,6230)⇒Xˉ∼N(110,1.2)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(110, \frac{6^2}{30}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 1.2)
Yˉ∼N(85,8260)⇒Yˉ∼N(85,1615)\bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(85, \frac{8^2}{60}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(85, \frac{16}{15}\right)

2. Formulate the random variable for the difference in the average selling prices per kiwi.

The selling prices per gram are $251000=$0.025\frac{\char36{}25}{1000} = \char36{}0.025 for Type AA and $151000=$0.015\frac{\char36{}15}{1000} = \char36{}0.015 for Type BB.
Let WW be the difference between the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type AA and a bag of Type BB.
W=0.025Xˉ−0.015YˉW = 0.025\bar{X} - 0.015\bar{Y}
E(W)=0.025(110)−0.015(85)=2.75−1.275=1.475\mathrm{E}(W) = 0.025(110) - 0.015(85) = 2.75 - 1.275 = 1.475
Var(W)=0.0252(1.2)+0.0152(1615)=0.00075+0.00024=0.00099\mathrm{Var}(W) = 0.025^2(1.2) + 0.015^2\left(\frac{16}{15}\right) = 0.00075 + 0.00024 = 0.00099
So W∼N(1.475,0.00099)W \sim \mathrm{N}(1.475, 0.00099)

3. Calculate the required probability.

The probability that the average price of a Type AA kiwi is more than a Type BB kiwi by at most $1.50\char36{}1.50 is P(0<W⩽1.50)\mathrm{P}(0 < W \leqslant 1.50).
P(0<W⩽1.50)≈0.78656≈0.787\mathrm{P}(0 < W \leqslant 1.50) \approx 0.78656 \approx 0.787 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

0.7870.787

10(c)

1. Find the distributions of the total masses of a bag of Type A kiwis and a bag of Type G kiwis.

Let MAM_A be the total mass of a bag of 30 Type AA kiwis, and MGM_G be the total mass of a bag of 50 Type GG kiwis.

Since A∼N(110,62)A \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 6^2):
MA=A1+A2+⋯+A30∼N(30×110,30×62)⇒MA∼N(3300,1080)M_A = A_1 + A_2 + \dots + A_{30} \sim \mathrm{N}(30 \times 110, 30 \times 6^2) \Rightarrow M_A \sim \mathrm{N}(3300, 1080)

For Type GG kiwis, the distribution is unknown. However, since the sample size n=50≥30n=50 \ge 30 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem:
MG=G1+G2+⋯+G50∼N(50×90,50×52)⇒MG∼N(4500,1250)M_G = G_1 + G_2 + \dots + G_{50} \sim \mathrm{N}(50 \times 90, 50 \times 5^2) \Rightarrow M_G \sim \mathrm{N}(4500, 1250) approximately.

2. Define the distribution for the total mass of the Assortment Box and find the probability of a box being fit for sale.

Let the total mass of an Assortment Box be T=MA+MGT = M_A + M_G.
Since MAM_A is normally distributed and MGM_G is approximately normally distributed (and they are independent):
E(T)=3300+4500=7800\mathrm{E}(T) = 3300 + 4500 = 7800
Var(T)=1080+1250=2330\mathrm{Var}(T) = 1080 + 1250 = 2330
Thus, T∼N(7800,2330)T \sim \mathrm{N}(7800, 2330) approximately.

A box is fit for sale if its total mass is at least 7.85 kg=7850 g7.85 \text{ kg} = 7850 \text{ g}.
P(T≥7850)≈0.150146\mathrm{P}(T \ge 7850) \approx 0.150146

3. Model the number of fit boxes with a Binomial distribution and calculate the final probability.

Let YY be the number of boxes out of 10 that are fit for sale.
Assuming the masses of the 10 boxes are independent, YY follows a Binomial distribution:
Y∼B(10,0.150146)Y \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.150146)

The probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale is:
P(Y=0)=(1−0.150146)10=(0.849854)10≈0.19652\mathrm{P}(Y = 0) = (1 - 0.150146)^{10} = (0.849854)^{10} \approx 0.19652

Correct to 3 significant figures, the probability is 0.1970.197.

答案

0.197

10(d)

1. State the approximation used for the distribution of Type G kiwis.

Approximation: Since the sample size of 50 Type GG kiwis is sufficiently large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the total mass of the 50 Type GG kiwis in a bag is approximately normally distributed.

2. State the assumption(s) required to combine the distributions.

Assumption(s): The mass of any Type GG kiwi is independent of the mass of any other Type GG kiwi. Furthermore, the masses of Type AA kiwis and the masses of Type GG kiwis are independent of each other.

答案

Approximation: By the Central Limit Theorem, since the sample size of 50 is large, the total mass of 50 Type GG kiwis is approximately normally distributed.
Assumption: The masses of the Type GG kiwis are independent of each other, and the masses of Type AA kiwis are independent of the masses of Type GG kiwis.

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