In this question you should state the parameters of any distributions you use. An orchard sells kiwis of two varieties, Type and Type . The masses, in grams, of Type and Type kiwis follow the distributions and respectively. It is assumed that these two distributions are independent. Kiwis are selected randomly and packed into bags. Type kiwis are packed in bags of 30, while Type kiwis are packed in bags of 60.
- (a)
In a randomly chosen bag of Type kiwis, find the probability that the mean mass of kiwis is between 109 grams and 115 grams.
- (b)
The selling prices of Type and Type kiwis are $25 per kilogram and $15 per kilogram respectively.
Find the probability that the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type kiwis is more than the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type kiwis by at most $1.50.
- (c)
The orchard also produces genetically modified Type kiwis, which are packed in bags of 50. The masses of Type kiwis are identically distributed with a mean of 90 grams and a standard deviation of 5 grams.
Each Assortment Box contains one bag of Type kiwis and one bag of Type kiwis. A box is fit for sale if the total mass of the kiwis in the box is at least 7.85 kilograms.
Ten Assortment Boxes are selected at random. Find the probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale.
- (d)
State, in context, the approximation(s) and assumption(s) needed for the distribution(s) used in part (c).
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Worked solution
10(a)
1. State the distribution of the sample mean mass of Type $A$ kiwis.
Let be the mean mass of a random sample of Type kiwis.
Since the mass of a Type kiwi follows , the sample mean is exactly normally distributed:
2. Calculate the probability that the mean mass is between 109 grams and 115 grams.
Using a graphing calculator to find the normal probability:
10(b)
1. Define the random variables for the sample means of the masses of Type A and Type B kiwis.
Let and be the sample means of the masses in a bag of Type (30 kiwis) and Type (60 kiwis) respectively.
2. Formulate the random variable for the difference in the average selling prices per kiwi.
The selling prices per gram are for Type and for Type .
Let be the difference between the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type and a bag of Type .
So
3. Calculate the required probability.
The probability that the average price of a Type kiwi is more than a Type kiwi by at most is .
(to 3 s.f.)
10(c)
1. Find the distributions of the total masses of a bag of Type A kiwis and a bag of Type G kiwis.
Let be the total mass of a bag of 30 Type kiwis, and be the total mass of a bag of 50 Type kiwis.
Since :
For Type kiwis, the distribution is unknown. However, since the sample size is large, by the Central Limit Theorem:
approximately.
2. Define the distribution for the total mass of the Assortment Box and find the probability of a box being fit for sale.
Let the total mass of an Assortment Box be .
Since is normally distributed and is approximately normally distributed (and they are independent):
Thus, approximately.
A box is fit for sale if its total mass is at least .
3. Model the number of fit boxes with a Binomial distribution and calculate the final probability.
Let be the number of boxes out of 10 that are fit for sale.
Assuming the masses of the 10 boxes are independent, follows a Binomial distribution:
The probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale is:
Correct to 3 significant figures, the probability is .
0.197
10(d)
1. State the approximation used for the distribution of Type G kiwis.
Approximation: Since the sample size of 50 Type kiwis is sufficiently large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the total mass of the 50 Type kiwis in a bag is approximately normally distributed.
2. State the assumption(s) required to combine the distributions.
Assumption(s): The mass of any Type kiwi is independent of the mass of any other Type kiwi. Furthermore, the masses of Type kiwis and the masses of Type kiwis are independent of each other.
Approximation: By the Central Limit Theorem, since the sample size of 50 is large, the total mass of 50 Type kiwis is approximately normally distributed.
Assumption: The masses of the Type kiwis are independent of each other, and the masses of Type kiwis are independent of the masses of Type kiwis.
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