In this question you should state the parameters of any distributions you use. An orchard sells kiwis of two varieties, Type AA and Type BB. The masses, in grams, of Type AA and Type BB kiwis follow the distributions N(110,62)\mathrm{N}(110, 6^2) and N(85,82)\mathrm{N}(85, 8^2) respectively. It is assumed that these two distributions are independent. Kiwis are selected randomly and packed into bags. Type AA kiwis are packed in bags of 30, while Type BB kiwis are packed in bags of 60.

  1. (a)

    In a randomly chosen bag of Type AA kiwis, find the probability that the mean mass of kiwis is between 109 grams and 115 grams.

  2. (b)

    The selling prices of Type AA and Type BB kiwis are $25 per kilogram and $15 per kilogram respectively.

    Find the probability that the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type AA kiwis is more than the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type BB kiwis by at most $1.50.

  3. (c)

    The orchard also produces genetically modified Type GG kiwis, which are packed in bags of 50. The masses of Type GG kiwis are identically distributed with a mean of 90 grams and a standard deviation of 5 grams.

    Each Assortment Box contains one bag of Type AA kiwis and one bag of Type GG kiwis. A box is fit for sale if the total mass of the kiwis in the box is at least 7.85 kilograms.

    Ten Assortment Boxes are selected at random. Find the probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale.

  4. (d)

    State, in context, the approximation(s) and assumption(s) needed for the distribution(s) used in part (c).

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Worked solution

10(a)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean mass of Type $A$ kiwis.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the mean mass of a random sample of 3030 Type AA kiwis.
Since the mass of a Type AA kiwi follows N(110,62)\mathrm{N}(110, 6^2), the sample mean is exactly normally distributed:
Xˉ∼N(110,6230)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(110, \frac{6^2}{30}\right)
Xˉ∼N(110,1.2)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 1.2)

2. Calculate the probability that the mean mass is between 109 grams and 115 grams.

Using a graphing calculator to find the normal probability:
P(109<Xˉ<115)=0.8193498…\mathrm{P}(109 < \bar{X} < 115) = 0.8193498\dots
P(109<Xˉ<115)≈0.819 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(109 < \bar{X} < 115) \approx 0.819 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.8190.819

10(b)

1. Define the random variables for the sample means of the masses of Type A and Type B kiwis.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} and Yˉ\bar{Y} be the sample means of the masses in a bag of Type AA (30 kiwis) and Type BB (60 kiwis) respectively.
Xˉ∼N(110,6230)⇒Xˉ∼N(110,1.2)\bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(110, \frac{6^2}{30}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{X} \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 1.2)
Yˉ∼N(85,8260)⇒Yˉ∼N(85,1615)\bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(85, \frac{8^2}{60}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(85, \frac{16}{15}\right)

2. Formulate the random variable for the difference in the average selling prices per kiwi.

The selling prices per gram are $251000=$0.025\frac{\char36{}25}{1000} = \char36{}0.025 for Type AA and $151000=$0.015\frac{\char36{}15}{1000} = \char36{}0.015 for Type BB.
Let WW be the difference between the average selling price of a kiwi from a bag of Type AA and a bag of Type BB.
W=0.025Xˉ−0.015YˉW = 0.025\bar{X} - 0.015\bar{Y}
E(W)=0.025(110)−0.015(85)=2.75−1.275=1.475\mathrm{E}(W) = 0.025(110) - 0.015(85) = 2.75 - 1.275 = 1.475
Var(W)=0.0252(1.2)+0.0152(1615)=0.00075+0.00024=0.00099\mathrm{Var}(W) = 0.025^2(1.2) + 0.015^2\left(\frac{16}{15}\right) = 0.00075 + 0.00024 = 0.00099
So W∼N(1.475,0.00099)W \sim \mathrm{N}(1.475, 0.00099)

3. Calculate the required probability.

The probability that the average price of a Type AA kiwi is more than a Type BB kiwi by at most $1.50\char36{}1.50 is P(0<W⩽1.50)\mathrm{P}(0 < W \leqslant 1.50).
P(0<W⩽1.50)≈0.78656≈0.787\mathrm{P}(0 < W \leqslant 1.50) \approx 0.78656 \approx 0.787 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

0.7870.787

10(c)

1. Find the distributions of the total masses of a bag of Type A kiwis and a bag of Type G kiwis.

Let MAM_A be the total mass of a bag of 30 Type AA kiwis, and MGM_G be the total mass of a bag of 50 Type GG kiwis.

Since A∼N(110,62)A \sim \mathrm{N}(110, 6^2):
MA=A1+A2+⋯+A30∼N(30×110,30×62)⇒MA∼N(3300,1080)M_A = A_1 + A_2 + \dots + A_{30} \sim \mathrm{N}(30 \times 110, 30 \times 6^2) \Rightarrow M_A \sim \mathrm{N}(3300, 1080)

For Type GG kiwis, the distribution is unknown. However, since the sample size n=50≥30n=50 \ge 30 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem:
MG=G1+G2+⋯+G50∼N(50×90,50×52)⇒MG∼N(4500,1250)M_G = G_1 + G_2 + \dots + G_{50} \sim \mathrm{N}(50 \times 90, 50 \times 5^2) \Rightarrow M_G \sim \mathrm{N}(4500, 1250) approximately.

2. Define the distribution for the total mass of the Assortment Box and find the probability of a box being fit for sale.

Let the total mass of an Assortment Box be T=MA+MGT = M_A + M_G.
Since MAM_A is normally distributed and MGM_G is approximately normally distributed (and they are independent):
E(T)=3300+4500=7800\mathrm{E}(T) = 3300 + 4500 = 7800
Var(T)=1080+1250=2330\mathrm{Var}(T) = 1080 + 1250 = 2330
Thus, T∼N(7800,2330)T \sim \mathrm{N}(7800, 2330) approximately.

A box is fit for sale if its total mass is at least 7.85 kg=7850 g7.85 \text{ kg} = 7850 \text{ g}.
P(T≥7850)≈0.150146\mathrm{P}(T \ge 7850) \approx 0.150146

3. Model the number of fit boxes with a Binomial distribution and calculate the final probability.

Let YY be the number of boxes out of 10 that are fit for sale.
Assuming the masses of the 10 boxes are independent, YY follows a Binomial distribution:
Y∼B(10,0.150146)Y \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.150146)

The probability that none of the boxes are fit for sale is:
P(Y=0)=(1−0.150146)10=(0.849854)10≈0.19652\mathrm{P}(Y = 0) = (1 - 0.150146)^{10} = (0.849854)^{10} \approx 0.19652

Correct to 3 significant figures, the probability is 0.1970.197.

Answer

0.197

10(d)

1. State the approximation used for the distribution of Type G kiwis.

Approximation: Since the sample size of 50 Type GG kiwis is sufficiently large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the total mass of the 50 Type GG kiwis in a bag is approximately normally distributed.

2. State the assumption(s) required to combine the distributions.

Assumption(s): The mass of any Type GG kiwi is independent of the mass of any other Type GG kiwi. Furthermore, the masses of Type AA kiwis and the masses of Type GG kiwis are independent of each other.

Answer

Approximation: By the Central Limit Theorem, since the sample size of 50 is large, the total mass of 50 Type GG kiwis is approximately normally distributed.
Assumption: The masses of the Type GG kiwis are independent of each other, and the masses of Type AA kiwis are independent of the masses of Type GG kiwis.

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