In this question you should clearly state the values of the appropriate parameters of any distributions used.

  1. ((a))

    The diameters of footballs are normally distributed with mean 22.0 cm and standard deviation 0.3 cm, and the diameters of basketballs are normally distributed with mean μ\mu cm and standard deviation 0.4 cm.

    The probability that the diameter of a randomly chosen basketball is at least 10% larger than the diameter of a randomly chosen football is 0.35.

    1. ((i))

      Show that μ=24.0\mu = 24.0.

    2. ((ii))

      Draw a sketch to show the distribution of the diameter of a randomly chosen basketball, including the main features of the curve. On your sketch, shade the area representing the probability that a randomly chosen basketball has diameter between 22.8 cm and 25.2 cm.

    3. ((iii))

      Find the probability that the difference between the average diameters of 10 randomly chosen footballs and the diameter of a randomly chosen basketball is less than 1.5 cm.

  2. ((b))

    A computer game simulates how a basketball player scores by shooting the ball through an elevated hoop. The player aims by using the mouse to change the angle of the shot. The probability of a player scoring on his first attempt is 511\dfrac{5}{11} and the probability of him scoring on his second attempt is 58\dfrac{5}{8}.

    1. ((i))

      Show that the probability of the player scoring on both attempts is at least 788\dfrac{7}{88}.

    2. ((ii))

      The probability of the player scoring on his first attempt but not on his second attempt is 1588\dfrac{15}{88}. Find the probability of the player scoring on both attempts. Are the events "player scores on his first attempt" and "player scores on his second attempt" independent? Justify your answer.

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Worked solution

10((a))((i))

1. Define the appropriate linear combination and find its mean and variance.

Let BB and FF be the diameters of a basketball and football respectively.
B∼N(μ,0.42)B \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, 0.4^2) and F∼N(22.0,0.32)F \sim \mathrm{N}(22.0, 0.3^2).
Let X=B−1.1FX = B - 1.1F.
E(X)=E(B)−1.1E(F)=μ−1.1(22.0)=μ−24.2\mathrm{E}(X) = \mathrm{E}(B) - 1.1\mathrm{E}(F) = \mu - 1.1(22.0) = \mu - 24.2
Var(X)=Var(B)+1.12Var(F)=0.42+1.21(0.32)=0.16+0.1089=0.2689\mathrm{Var}(X) = \mathrm{Var}(B) + 1.1^2\mathrm{Var}(F) = 0.4^2 + 1.21(0.3^2) = 0.16 + 0.1089 = 0.2689

2. Formulate the probability equation and use the inverse normal distribution.

Given P(B≥1.1F)=0.35\mathrm{P}(B \ge 1.1F) = 0.35, we have P(X≥0)=0.35\mathrm{P}(X \ge 0) = 0.35.
Standardising XX:
P(Z≥0−(μ−24.2)0.2689)=0.35\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{0 - (\mu - 24.2)}{\sqrt{0.2689}}\right) = 0.35
From the standard normal distribution (inverse normal):
24.2−μ0.2689≈0.38532\frac{24.2 - \mu}{\sqrt{0.2689}} \approx 0.38532

3. Solve the equation for $\mu$.

24.2−μ=0.38532×0.268924.2 - \mu = 0.38532 \times \sqrt{0.2689}
24.2−μ≈0.1998124.2 - \mu \approx 0.19981
μ=24.2−0.19981=24.00019\mu = 24.2 - 0.19981 = 24.00019
μ≈24.0 (shown)\mu \approx 24.0 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

μ=24.0\mu = 24.0

10((a))((ii))

1. Identify the parameters of the normal curve and the significance of the boundary values.

Let the diameter of a basketball be YY. From part (a)(i), Y∼N(24.0,0.42)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(24.0, 0.4^2).
The curve is centered at the mean, μ=24.0\mu = 24.0.
The bounds for shading are 22.822.8 and 25.225.2.
Notice that 22.8=24.0−3(0.4)22.8 = 24.0 - 3(0.4) and 25.2=24.0+3(0.4)25.2 = 24.0 + 3(0.4), corresponding exactly to μ−3σ\mu - 3\sigma and μ+3σ\mu + 3\sigma.

2. Describe the features of the sketch and the shaded region.

To draw the sketch:

  1. Draw a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve above a horizontal axis.
  2. Mark the center of the peak on the axis as 24.024.0.
  3. Mark 22.822.8 and 25.225.2 symmetrically on the left and right of 24.024.0.
  4. Ensure the tails of the curve asymptotically approach the horizontal axis near and beyond these values.
  5. Shade the entire area under the curve between x=22.8x = 22.8 and x=25.2x = 25.2.
Answer

A symmetrical bell-shaped curve with its peak at x=24.0x = 24.0 on the horizontal axis, asymptotes at both tails, and the region under the curve between x=22.8x = 22.8 and x=25.2x = 25.2 shaded.

10((a))((iii))

1. State the distributions of the sample mean of 10 footballs and the basketball diameter.

Let FF be the diameter of a football and BB be the diameter of a basketball.
From the given information and part (a)(i):
B∼N(24.0,0.42)B \sim \mathrm{N}(24.0, 0.4^2)
Let Fˉ\bar{F} be the average diameter of 10 footballs.
Fˉ∼N(22.0,0.3210)  ⟹  Fˉ∼N(22.0,0.009)\bar{F} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(22.0, \frac{0.3^2}{10}\right) \implies \bar{F} \sim \mathrm{N}(22.0, 0.009)

2. Define the difference variable and find its distribution.

Let W=B−FˉW = B - \bar{F}.
E(W)=E(B)−E(Fˉ)=24.0−22.0=2.0\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(B) - \mathrm{E}(\bar{F}) = 24.0 - 22.0 = 2.0
Since BB and Fˉ\bar{F} are independent normal variables, we add their variances:
Var(W)=Var(B)+Var(Fˉ)=0.42+0.009=0.16+0.009=0.169\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(B) + \mathrm{Var}(\bar{F}) = 0.4^2 + 0.009 = 0.16 + 0.009 = 0.169
Therefore, W∼N(2.0,0.169)W \sim \mathrm{N}(2.0, 0.169).

3. Evaluate the probability that the absolute difference is less than 1.5 cm.

The difference between the diameters is less than 1.5 cm1.5\text{ cm}, which means the absolute difference ∣W∣<1.5|W| < 1.5.
P(∣W∣<1.5)=P(−1.5<W<1.5)\mathrm{P}(|W| < 1.5) = \mathrm{P}(-1.5 < W < 1.5)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(−1.5<W<1.5)≈0.11194≈0.112 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(-1.5 < W < 1.5) \approx 0.11194 \approx 0.112\text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.1120.112

10((b))((i))

1. Set up the inequality using the addition rule and the maximum value of the union of probabilities.

Let AA be the event of scoring on the first attempt and BB be the event of scoring on the second attempt.
Using the addition rule for probabilities:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
Since the probability of any event cannot exceed 1, we know that P(A∪B)≤1P(A \cup B) \le 1.
Therefore, P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)≤1P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \le 1.

2. Substitute the given probabilities and simplify to show the required minimum value.

Rearranging the inequality gives:
P(A∩B)≥P(A)+P(B)−1P(A \cap B) \ge P(A) + P(B) - 1
Substituting the given values P(A)=511P(A) = \frac{5}{11} and P(B)=58P(B) = \frac{5}{8}:
P(A∩B)≥511+58−1P(A \cap B) \ge \frac{5}{11} + \frac{5}{8} - 1
P(A∩B)≥4088+5588−8888P(A \cap B) \ge \frac{40}{88} + \frac{55}{88} - \frac{88}{88}
P(A∩B)≥9588−8888P(A \cap B) \ge \frac{95}{88} - \frac{88}{88}
P(A∩B)≥788 (shown)P(A \cap B) \ge \frac{7}{88} \text{ (shown)}

Answer

Shown

10((b))((ii))

1. Find the probability of scoring on both attempts using the relationship between events.

Let FF be the event the player scores on the first attempt and SS be the event the player scores on the second attempt.
The probability of scoring on the first attempt but not on the second is P(F∩S′)P(F \cap S').
We know that P(F)=P(F∩S)+P(F∩S′)P(F) = P(F \cap S) + P(F \cap S').
P(F∩S)=P(F)−P(F∩S′)P(F \cap S) = P(F) - P(F \cap S')
P(F∩S)=511−1588P(F \cap S) = \frac{5}{11} - \frac{15}{88}
P(F∩S)=4088−1588=2588P(F \cap S) = \frac{40}{88} - \frac{15}{88} = \frac{25}{88}

2. Check the condition for independence by comparing the product of individual probabilities with the probability of the intersection.

For events FF and SS to be independent, P(F∩S)P(F \cap S) must equal P(F)×P(S)P(F) \times P(S).
P(F)×P(S)=511×58=2588P(F) \times P(S) = \frac{5}{11} \times \frac{5}{8} = \frac{25}{88}
Since P(F∩S)=P(F)×P(S)=2588P(F \cap S) = P(F) \times P(S) = \dfrac{25}{88}, the events are independent.

Answer

Probability of scoring on both attempts is 2588\dfrac{25}{88}. Yes, the events are independent because P(first)×P(second)=P(both)P(\text{first}) \times P(\text{second}) = P(\text{both}).

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