在本题中,你应该清晰地写出你所使用的所有分布以及相应参数的值。 某公司用两台机器生产两种毛线球。机器 AA 生产双股毛线球。经统计发现,机器 AA 生产的毛线球中,有 80% 的长度小于 340 米,有 10% 的长度小于 280 米。

  1. (i)

    假设机器 AA 生产的双股毛线球长度(单位:米)服从分布 N(μ,σ2)\mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2),求 μ\mu 并证明 σ=28.3\sigma = 28.3。

  2. (ii)

    对于本题的其余部分,令 μ=300\mu = 300 且 σ=20\sigma = 20。

    机器 BB 生产三股纱线球。机器 BB 生产的三股纱线球中,纱线的长度(单位为米)服从分布 N(220,62)\mathrm{N}(220, 6^2)。

    随机抽取 5 个来自机器 BB 的三股纱线球。求其中有 2 个长度大于 230 m 且 3 个长度小于 215 m 的概率。

  3. (iii)

    随机抽取的 2 个来自机器 AA 的双股纱线球和 3 个来自机器 BB 的三股纱线球的总长度超过 kk 米的概率为 0.385。求 kk 的值,精确到两位小数。

  4. (iv)

    一名技术人员更改了两台机器的设置。来自机器 AA 的双股纱线球的纱线长度减少了 9%,来自机器 BB 的三股纱线球的纱线长度减少了 5%。求从机器 AA 中随机选取的三个双股纱线球的纱线总长度,与从机器 BB 中随机选取的四个三股纱线球的纱线总长度相差在 50 米以内的概率。

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完整解法

10(i)

1. Standardise the normal variable and use the inverse standard normal distribution to set up two simultaneous equations.

Let X∼N(μ,σ2)X \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2) be the length of yarn in balls from Machine AA.
Given P(X<340)=0.80\mathrm{P}(X < 340) = 0.80 and P(X<280)=0.10\mathrm{P}(X < 280) = 0.10.
Standardising the variables, we get:
P(Z<340−μσ)=0.80  ⟹  340−μσ≈0.84162\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{340 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.80 \implies \frac{340 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx 0.84162
P(Z<280−μσ)=0.10  ⟹  280−μσ≈−1.28155\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{280 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.10 \implies \frac{280 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx -1.28155

2. Solve the simultaneous equations to find and show the value of $\sigma$.

Rearranging the equations:
340−μ=0.84162σ— (1)340 - \mu = 0.84162\sigma \quad \text{--- (1)}
280−μ=−1.28155σ— (2)280 - \mu = -1.28155\sigma \quad \text{--- (2)}
Subtracting (2) from (1):
(340−280)=(0.84162−(−1.28155))σ(340 - 280) = (0.84162 - (-1.28155))\sigma
60=2.12317σ60 = 2.12317\sigma
σ=28.2596≈28.3 (shown)\sigma = 28.2596 \approx 28.3 \text{ (shown)}

3. Substitute the precise value of $\sigma$ back into one of the equations to find $\mu$.

Substituting σ=28.2596\sigma = 28.2596 into (1):
340−μ=0.84162(28.2596)340 - \mu = 0.84162(28.2596)
μ=340−23.784\mu = 340 - 23.784
μ=316.216≈316 (to 3 s.f.)\mu = 316.216 \approx 316 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

μ=316\mu = 316

10(ii)

1. State the distribution and find the probabilities of a ball falling into each of the two length categories.

Let YY be the length of a ball of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB.
Y∼N(220,62)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(220, 6^2)
P(Y>230)=0.047790\mathrm{P}(Y > 230) = 0.047790
P(Y<215)=0.202328\mathrm{P}(Y < 215) = 0.202328

2. Calculate the combined probability for the 5 randomly chosen balls.

Out of 5 balls, we require exactly 2 to be >230> 230 m and the remaining 3 to be <215< 215 m. The number of such arrangements is (52)=10\binom{5}{2} = 10.
Required probability=(52)[P(Y>230)]2[P(Y<215)]3\text{Required probability} = \binom{5}{2} [\mathrm{P}(Y > 230)]^2 [\mathrm{P}(Y < 215)]^3
=10×(0.047790)2×(0.202328)3= 10 \times (0.047790)^2 \times (0.202328)^3
=0.00018918≈0.000189 (to 3 s.f.)= 0.00018918 \approx 0.000189 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.0001890.000189

10(iii)

1. Define the random variable for the total length and find its expected value.

Let XX and YY be the lengths of yarn from Machine AA and Machine BB respectively, and T=X1+X2+Y1+Y2+Y3T = X_1 + X_2 + Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3 be the total length of the 5 randomly chosen balls.
E(T)=2E(X)+3E(Y)\mathrm{E}(T) = 2\mathrm{E}(X) + 3\mathrm{E}(Y)
E(T)=2(300)+3(220)=1260\mathrm{E}(T) = 2(300) + 3(220) = 1260

2. Find the variance of the total length and state the distribution of $T$.

Var(T)=2Var(X)+3Var(Y)\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2\mathrm{Var}(X) + 3\mathrm{Var}(Y)
Var(T)=2(202)+3(62)\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2(20^2) + 3(6^2)
Var(T)=2(400)+3(36)=908\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2(400) + 3(36) = 908
Since the sum of independent normal random variables is normally distributed, we state:
T∼N(1260,908)T \sim \mathrm{N}(1260, 908)

3. Set up the probability equation and solve for $k$ using the inverse normal distribution.

We are given P(T>k)=0.385\mathrm{P}(T > k) = 0.385.
P(T≤k)=1−0.385=0.615\mathrm{P}(T \le k) = 1 - 0.385 = 0.615
Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator with μ=1260\mu = 1260 and σ=908\sigma = \sqrt{908}:
k≈1268.8101k \approx 1268.8101
k=1268.81 (to 2 d.p.)k = 1268.81 \text{ (to 2 d.p.)}

答案

1268.811268.81

10(iv)

1. Define the normal distributions for the new lengths of yarn from Machine A and Machine B.

Let A′A' and B′B' be the continuous random variables representing the new lengths of yarn from Machine A and B respectively.
A′=0.91A  ⟹  E(A′)=0.91(300)=273A' = 0.91A \implies \text{E}(A') = 0.91(300) = 273 and Var(A′)=0.912(202)=331.24\text{Var}(A') = 0.91^2(20^2) = 331.24
Thus, A′∼N(273,331.24)A' \sim \text{N}(273, 331.24)

B′=0.95B  ⟹  E(B′)=0.95(220)=209B' = 0.95B \implies \text{E}(B') = 0.95(220) = 209 and Var(B′)=0.952(62)=32.49\text{Var}(B') = 0.95^2(6^2) = 32.49
Thus, B′∼N(209,32.49)B' \sim \text{N}(209, 32.49)

2. Formulate the linear combination for the difference between the total lengths of 3 balls of $A'$ and 4 balls of $B'$, and find its distribution.

Let W=(A1′+A2′+A3′)−(B1′+B2′+B3′+B4′)W = (A'_1 + A'_2 + A'_3) - (B'_1 + B'_2 + B'_3 + B'_4).
E(W)=3E(A′)−4E(B′)=3(273)−4(209)=−17\text{E}(W) = 3\text{E}(A') - 4\text{E}(B') = 3(273) - 4(209) = -17
Since the balls are chosen randomly and independently, the variances add up:
Var(W)=3Var(A′)+4Var(B′)=3(331.24)+4(32.49)=1123.68\text{Var}(W) = 3\text{Var}(A') + 4\text{Var}(B') = 3(331.24) + 4(32.49) = 1123.68
Therefore, W∼N(−17,1123.68)W \sim \text{N}(-17, 1123.68).

3. Calculate the probability that the difference in total lengths is within 50 metres.

We need to find the probability that the difference is within 50 m50\text{ m}.
P(∣W∣≤50)=P(−50≤W≤50)\text{P}(|W| \le 50) = \text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50)
Using a graphing calculator,
P(−50≤W≤50)≈0.81473\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) \approx 0.81473
P(−50≤W≤50)=0.815 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) = 0.815 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.815

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