In this question, you should state clearly all the distributions that you use, together with the values of the appropriate parameters. A company produces two types of yarn balls with two machines. Machine AA produces balls of 2-ply yarn. Over a period of time, it is found that 80% of the balls of yarn from Machine AA have lengths less than 340 metres and 10% of the balls of yarn from Machine AA have lengths less than 280 metres.

  1. (i)

    Assuming that the lengths, in metres, of yarn in balls of 2-ply yarn from Machine AA follows the distribution N(μ,σ2)\mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2), find μ\mu and show that σ=28.3\sigma = 28.3.

  2. (ii)

    For the rest of the question let μ=300\mu = 300 and σ=20\sigma = 20.

    Machine BB produces balls of 3-ply yarn. The lengths, in metres, of yarn in balls of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB follows the distribution N(220,62)\mathrm{N}(220, 6^2).

    Five balls of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB are randomly chosen. Find the probability that two of them have lengths more than 230 m and three of them have lengths less than 215 m.

  3. (iii)

    The probability that two randomly chosen balls of 2-ply yarn from Machine AA and three randomly chosen balls of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB have total length exceeding kk metres is 0.385. Find the value of kk, correct to 2 decimal places.

  4. (iv)

    A technician changed the settings on the two machines. The lengths of yarn in balls of 2-ply yarn from Machine AA is reduced by 9% and the lengths of yarn in balls of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB is reduced by 5%. Find the probability that the total length of yarn in three randomly chosen balls of 2-ply yarn from Machine AA is within 50 metres of the total length of yarn in four randomly chosen balls of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Standardise the normal variable and use the inverse standard normal distribution to set up two simultaneous equations.

Let X∼N(μ,σ2)X \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2) be the length of yarn in balls from Machine AA.
Given P(X<340)=0.80\mathrm{P}(X < 340) = 0.80 and P(X<280)=0.10\mathrm{P}(X < 280) = 0.10.
Standardising the variables, we get:
P(Z<340−μσ)=0.80  ⟹  340−μσ≈0.84162\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{340 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.80 \implies \frac{340 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx 0.84162
P(Z<280−μσ)=0.10  ⟹  280−μσ≈−1.28155\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{280 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.10 \implies \frac{280 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx -1.28155

2. Solve the simultaneous equations to find and show the value of $\sigma$.

Rearranging the equations:
340−μ=0.84162σ— (1)340 - \mu = 0.84162\sigma \quad \text{--- (1)}
280−μ=−1.28155σ— (2)280 - \mu = -1.28155\sigma \quad \text{--- (2)}
Subtracting (2) from (1):
(340−280)=(0.84162−(−1.28155))σ(340 - 280) = (0.84162 - (-1.28155))\sigma
60=2.12317σ60 = 2.12317\sigma
σ=28.2596≈28.3 (shown)\sigma = 28.2596 \approx 28.3 \text{ (shown)}

3. Substitute the precise value of $\sigma$ back into one of the equations to find $\mu$.

Substituting σ=28.2596\sigma = 28.2596 into (1):
340−μ=0.84162(28.2596)340 - \mu = 0.84162(28.2596)
μ=340−23.784\mu = 340 - 23.784
μ=316.216≈316 (to 3 s.f.)\mu = 316.216 \approx 316 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

μ=316\mu = 316

10(ii)

1. State the distribution and find the probabilities of a ball falling into each of the two length categories.

Let YY be the length of a ball of 3-ply yarn from Machine BB.
Y∼N(220,62)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(220, 6^2)
P(Y>230)=0.047790\mathrm{P}(Y > 230) = 0.047790
P(Y<215)=0.202328\mathrm{P}(Y < 215) = 0.202328

2. Calculate the combined probability for the 5 randomly chosen balls.

Out of 5 balls, we require exactly 2 to be >230> 230 m and the remaining 3 to be <215< 215 m. The number of such arrangements is (52)=10\binom{5}{2} = 10.
Required probability=(52)[P(Y>230)]2[P(Y<215)]3\text{Required probability} = \binom{5}{2} [\mathrm{P}(Y > 230)]^2 [\mathrm{P}(Y < 215)]^3
=10×(0.047790)2×(0.202328)3= 10 \times (0.047790)^2 \times (0.202328)^3
=0.00018918≈0.000189 (to 3 s.f.)= 0.00018918 \approx 0.000189 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.0001890.000189

10(iii)

1. Define the random variable for the total length and find its expected value.

Let XX and YY be the lengths of yarn from Machine AA and Machine BB respectively, and T=X1+X2+Y1+Y2+Y3T = X_1 + X_2 + Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3 be the total length of the 5 randomly chosen balls.
E(T)=2E(X)+3E(Y)\mathrm{E}(T) = 2\mathrm{E}(X) + 3\mathrm{E}(Y)
E(T)=2(300)+3(220)=1260\mathrm{E}(T) = 2(300) + 3(220) = 1260

2. Find the variance of the total length and state the distribution of $T$.

Var(T)=2Var(X)+3Var(Y)\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2\mathrm{Var}(X) + 3\mathrm{Var}(Y)
Var(T)=2(202)+3(62)\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2(20^2) + 3(6^2)
Var(T)=2(400)+3(36)=908\mathrm{Var}(T) = 2(400) + 3(36) = 908
Since the sum of independent normal random variables is normally distributed, we state:
T∼N(1260,908)T \sim \mathrm{N}(1260, 908)

3. Set up the probability equation and solve for $k$ using the inverse normal distribution.

We are given P(T>k)=0.385\mathrm{P}(T > k) = 0.385.
P(T≤k)=1−0.385=0.615\mathrm{P}(T \le k) = 1 - 0.385 = 0.615
Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator with μ=1260\mu = 1260 and σ=908\sigma = \sqrt{908}:
k≈1268.8101k \approx 1268.8101
k=1268.81 (to 2 d.p.)k = 1268.81 \text{ (to 2 d.p.)}

Answer

1268.811268.81

10(iv)

1. Define the normal distributions for the new lengths of yarn from Machine A and Machine B.

Let A′A' and B′B' be the continuous random variables representing the new lengths of yarn from Machine A and B respectively.
A′=0.91A  ⟹  E(A′)=0.91(300)=273A' = 0.91A \implies \text{E}(A') = 0.91(300) = 273 and Var(A′)=0.912(202)=331.24\text{Var}(A') = 0.91^2(20^2) = 331.24
Thus, A′∼N(273,331.24)A' \sim \text{N}(273, 331.24)

B′=0.95B  ⟹  E(B′)=0.95(220)=209B' = 0.95B \implies \text{E}(B') = 0.95(220) = 209 and Var(B′)=0.952(62)=32.49\text{Var}(B') = 0.95^2(6^2) = 32.49
Thus, B′∼N(209,32.49)B' \sim \text{N}(209, 32.49)

2. Formulate the linear combination for the difference between the total lengths of 3 balls of $A'$ and 4 balls of $B'$, and find its distribution.

Let W=(A1′+A2′+A3′)−(B1′+B2′+B3′+B4′)W = (A'_1 + A'_2 + A'_3) - (B'_1 + B'_2 + B'_3 + B'_4).
E(W)=3E(A′)−4E(B′)=3(273)−4(209)=−17\text{E}(W) = 3\text{E}(A') - 4\text{E}(B') = 3(273) - 4(209) = -17
Since the balls are chosen randomly and independently, the variances add up:
Var(W)=3Var(A′)+4Var(B′)=3(331.24)+4(32.49)=1123.68\text{Var}(W) = 3\text{Var}(A') + 4\text{Var}(B') = 3(331.24) + 4(32.49) = 1123.68
Therefore, W∼N(−17,1123.68)W \sim \text{N}(-17, 1123.68).

3. Calculate the probability that the difference in total lengths is within 50 metres.

We need to find the probability that the difference is within 50 m50\text{ m}.
P(∣W∣≤50)=P(−50≤W≤50)\text{P}(|W| \le 50) = \text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50)
Using a graphing calculator,
P(−50≤W≤50)≈0.81473\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) \approx 0.81473
P(−50≤W≤50)=0.815 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(-50 \le W \le 50) = 0.815 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.815

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