一个袋子里有 4 个红色筹码和 6 个蓝色筹码。从袋中随机无放回地抽取 4 个筹码。

  1. ((a))

    计算满足以下条件的概率:

    1. ((i))

      所有抽取的筹码都是蓝色的,

    2. ((ii))

      至少抽到 3 个蓝色筹码,

    3. ((iii))

      每种颜色的筹码至少抽到 1 个,

    4. ((iv))

      在已知每种颜色的筹码至少抽到 1 个的条件下,至少抽到 3 个蓝色筹码。

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完整解法

6((a))((i))

1. Set up the probability using combinations for selecting 4 blue counters from 6, out of a total of 4 counters from 10.

P(all 4 blue)=6C410C4\mathrm{P}(\text{all 4 blue}) = \frac{^{6}C_{4}}{^{10}C_{4}}

2. Evaluate the combinations to find the simplified final probability.

=15210=114= \frac{15}{210} \\ = \frac{1}{14}

答案

114\frac{1}{14}

6((a))((ii))

1. Calculate the probability of drawing exactly 4 blue counters (derived from part i).

P(4 blue)=610×59×48×37=114\text{P}(\text{4 blue}) = \frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{8} \times \frac{3}{7} = \frac{1}{14}

2. Calculate the probability of drawing exactly 3 blue counters, considering the different possible arrangements.

A result of exactly 3 blue counters and 1 red counter can occur in 4 possible ways (e.g., BBBR, BBRB, BRBB, RBBB).
P(3 blue, 1 red)=4×(610×59×48×47)\text{P}(\text{3 blue, 1 red}) = 4 \times \left( \frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{8} \times \frac{4}{7} \right)
=4×221=821= 4 \times \frac{2}{21} = \frac{8}{21}

3. Add the probabilities of these mutually exclusive events to find the total probability of drawing at least 3 blue counters.

P(at least 3 blue)=P(4 blue)+P(3 blue, 1 red)\text{P}(\text{at least 3 blue}) = \text{P}(\text{4 blue}) + \text{P}(\text{3 blue, 1 red})
=114+821= \frac{1}{14} + \frac{8}{21}
=342+1642=1942= \frac{3}{42} + \frac{16}{42} = \frac{19}{42}

答案

1942\frac{19}{42}

6((a))((iii))

1. Calculate the probability that all 4 counters drawn are red.

P(all 4 are red)=410×39×28×17=1210\text{P}(\text{all 4 are red}) = \frac{4}{10} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{2}{8} \times \frac{1}{7} = \frac{1}{210}

2. Use the complement rule to find the probability of drawing at least one counter of each colour.

From part (a)(i), we know the probability of drawing all blue counters:
P(all 4 are blue)=610×59×48×37=15210=114\text{P}(\text{all 4 are blue}) = \frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{8} \times \frac{3}{7} = \frac{15}{210} = \frac{1}{14}

The event "at least 1 counter of each colour" is the complement of "all 4 counters are the same colour".
P(at least 1 of each colour)=1−P(all 4 are blue)−P(all 4 are red)\text{P}(\text{at least 1 of each colour}) = 1 - \text{P}(\text{all 4 are blue}) - \text{P}(\text{all 4 are red})
=1−15210−1210= 1 - \frac{15}{210} - \frac{1}{210}
=1−16210= 1 - \frac{16}{210}
=194210=97105= \frac{194}{210} = \frac{97}{105}

答案

97105\frac{97}{105}

6((a))((iv))

1. Determine the probability of the given condition (at least 1 counter of each colour).

Let BB be the event of drawing at least 1 counter of each colour (the complement of drawing all red or all blue).
P(B)=1−P(4 red)−P(4 blue)\text{P}(B) = 1 - \text{P(4 red)} - \text{P(4 blue)}
P(B)=1−(44)(104)−(64)(104)=1−1210−15210=194210=97105\text{P}(B) = 1 - \frac{\binom{4}{4}}{\binom{10}{4}} - \frac{\binom{6}{4}}{\binom{10}{4}} = 1 - \frac{1}{210} - \frac{15}{210} = \frac{194}{210} = \frac{97}{105}

2. Determine the probability of the intersection of the two events.

Let AA be the event of drawing at least 3 blue counters.
The intersection A∩BA \cap B means drawing at least 3 blue counters AND at least 1 counter of each colour, which is exactly 3 blue counters and 1 red counter.
P(A∩B)=(63)×(41)(104)=20×4210=80210=821\text{P}(A \cap B) = \frac{\binom{6}{3} \times \binom{4}{1}}{\binom{10}{4}} = \frac{20 \times 4}{210} = \frac{80}{210} = \frac{8}{21}

3. Apply the conditional probability formula.

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=8/2197/105=821×10597=4097\text{P}(A \mid B) = \frac{\text{P}(A \cap B)}{\text{P}(B)} = \frac{8/21}{97/105} = \frac{8}{21} \times \frac{105}{97} = \frac{40}{97}

答案

4097\frac{40}{97}

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