在本题中,你应该说明你所使用的任何分布的参数。 某客户服务呼叫中心将接入的电话进行分类,以便后续解决问题。对接入电话进行分类所需的时间 TT(分钟)服从正态分布 N(2,0.22)\text{N}(2, 0.2^2)。接入的电话被分类为常规电话或复杂电话。解决常规电话所需的时间 XX(分钟)服从正态分布 N(5,k)\text{N}(5, k),而解决复杂电话所需的时间 YY(分钟)服从正态分布 N(20,62)\text{N}(20, 6^2)。你可以假设任何接入的电话都是先被分类为常规或复杂,然后立即进行后续问题的解决。通话的总时长定义为对电话进行分类的时间与解决问题的时间之和。

  1. (a)

    画出对呼入电话进行分类所需时间的分布草图,并清晰地用阴影标出表示随机挑选的呼入电话分类时间在 1.2 分钟至 2.8 分钟之间的概率的区域。

  2. (b)

    对于一个随机选择的、被分类为常规并已解决的呼入电话,其通话时长超过 8 分钟的概率为 0.254。

    证明 k=2.24k = 2.24(精确到两位小数)。

  3. (c)

    在一个有 20 个呼入电话的工作日上午,有 nn 个电话被归类为复杂电话。已知解决这 nn 个复杂电话的平均时间超过 24 分钟的概率至多为 0.01,求 nn 的取值范围(或取值集合)。

  4. (d)

    对解决流程进行了改进,使得现在解决一个复杂电话所需的时间减少了 20%。

    求解决 2 个复杂电话所需的时间超过解决一个常规电话所需时间的两倍的概率。

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完整解法

12(a)

1. Sketch the normal distribution curve for $T$

Since T∼N(2,0.22)T \sim \text{N}(2, 0.2^2), the distribution is a symmetric, bell-shaped curve centred at the mean μ=2\mu = 2.
Draw a bell-shaped curve above a horizontal tt-axis (or TT-axis) and mark the value 22 directly below the peak of the curve.

2. Shade the required probability area

The probability P(1.2<T<2.8)\mathrm{P}(1.2 < T < 2.8) corresponds to the area under the normal curve between t=1.2t = 1.2 and t=2.8t = 2.8. Mark 1.21.2 to the left of 22, and 2.82.8 to the right of 22 (both equidistant from 22, as they are 44 standard deviations away), and shade the area bounded by the curve, the horizontal axis, and the vertical lines at t=1.2t = 1.2 and t=2.8t = 2.8.

答案

A bell-shaped curve drawn above the horizontal axis, with its peak at t=2t = 2. The region under the curve from t=1.2t = 1.2 to t=2.8t = 2.8 is clearly shaded.

12(b)

1. Define the random variable for the total duration of a routine call and find its mean and variance.

Let DD be the duration of a routine call. Since it is the sum of the time taken to categorise and resolve, D=T+XD = T + X.
E(D)=E(T)+E(X)=2+5=7\text{E}(D) = \text{E}(T) + \text{E}(X) = 2 + 5 = 7
Var(D)=Var(T)+Var(X)=0.22+k=k+0.04\text{Var}(D) = \text{Var}(T) + \text{Var}(X) = 0.2^2 + k = k + 0.04
D∼N(7,k+0.04)D \sim \text{N}(7, k + 0.04)

2. Set up the probability equation and standardise the variable.

Given that P(D>8)=0.254\text{P}(D > 8) = 0.254:
P(Z>8−7k+0.04)=0.254\text{P}\left(Z > \frac{8 - 7}{\sqrt{k + 0.04}}\right) = 0.254
P(Z>1k+0.04)=0.254\text{P}\left(Z > \frac{1}{\sqrt{k + 0.04}}\right) = 0.254

3. Use the inverse normal function to find the corresponding $z$-value.

Since P(Z>z)=0.254\text{P}(Z > z) = 0.254, we have P(Z≤z)=1−0.254=0.746\text{P}(Z \le z) = 1 - 0.254 = 0.746.
Using the graphing calculator:
1k+0.04=invNorm(0.746)≈0.66197\frac{1}{\sqrt{k + 0.04}} = \text{invNorm}(0.746) \approx 0.66197

4. Solve for $k$ and round to 2 decimal places.

k+0.04≈10.66197≈1.51065\sqrt{k + 0.04} \approx \frac{1}{0.66197} \approx 1.51065
k+0.04≈1.510652≈2.28206k + 0.04 \approx 1.51065^2 \approx 2.28206
k≈2.24206k \approx 2.24206
k=2.24 (shown to 2 d.p.)k = 2.24 \text{ (shown to 2 d.p.)}

答案

k=2.24k = 2.24 (shown)

12(c)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean $\bar{Y}$ for $n$ complex calls.

Let Yˉ\bar{Y} be the mean time taken to resolve nn complex calls.
Since the time taken for a single complex call is Y∼N(20,62)Y \sim \text{N}(20, 6^2), the sample mean follows the distribution Yˉ∼N(20,62n)\bar{Y} \sim \text{N}\left(20, \frac{6^2}{n}\right).

2. Formulate the probability inequality and standardise the variable.

We are given that P(Yˉ>24)≤0.01\text{P}(\bar{Y} > 24) \le 0.01.
Standardising to the standard normal variable Z∼N(0,1)Z \sim \text{N}(0, 1):
P(Z>24−206/n)≤0.01\text{P}\left(Z > \frac{24 - 20}{6/\sqrt{n}}\right) \le 0.01

3. Solve the inequality to find the lower bound for $n$.

Using the inverse standard normal function, the critical value for the 99th percentile is 2.32632.3263 (i.e. P(Z>2.3263)≈0.01\text{P}(Z > 2.3263) \approx 0.01).
46/n≥2.3263\frac{4}{6/\sqrt{n}} \ge 2.3263
2n3≥2.3263\frac{2\sqrt{n}}{3} \ge 2.3263
n≥3.4895\sqrt{n} \ge 3.4895
n≥12.177n \ge 12.177

4. Determine the final set of possible values for $n$ based on the context constraints.

Since nn represents the number of calls, it must be an integer, which implies n≥13n \ge 13.
Given that there are exactly 20 incoming calls in total on that morning, n≤20n \le 20.
Therefore, 13≤n≤2013 \le n \le 20, and the set of possible values is {13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20}\{13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20\}.

答案

{13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20}\{13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20\}

12(d)

1. Find the parameters of the new distribution for the time taken to resolve a complex call.

Let CC be the time taken to resolve a complex call after the review.
Since the time is reduced by 20%20\%, C=0.8YC = 0.8Y.
E(C)=0.8×20=16\text{E}(C) = 0.8 \times 20 = 16
Var(C)=0.82×62=23.04\text{Var}(C) = 0.8^2 \times 6^2 = 23.04
Therefore, C∼N(16,23.04)C \sim \text{N}(16, 23.04).

2. Formulate the required probability and define the linear combination of random variables.

We need the probability that the time taken to resolve 2 complex calls (C1+C2C_1 + C_2) is more than twice the time taken to resolve a routine call (2X2X).
This is equivalent to finding P(C1+C2>2X)\text{P}(C_1 + C_2 > 2X), which can be rewritten as P(C1+C2−2X>0)\text{P}(C_1 + C_2 - 2X > 0).
Let W=C1+C2−2XW = C_1 + C_2 - 2X.

3. Calculate the mean and variance of the combined random variable $W$.

E(W)=E(C1)+E(C2)−2E(X)\text{E}(W) = \text{E}(C_1) + \text{E}(C_2) - 2\text{E}(X)
E(W)=16+16−2(5)=22\text{E}(W) = 16 + 16 - 2(5) = 22

Using the given value k=2.24k = 2.24 from part (b):
Var(W)=Var(C1)+Var(C2)+(−2)2Var(X)\text{Var}(W) = \text{Var}(C_1) + \text{Var}(C_2) + (-2)^2\text{Var}(X)
Var(W)=23.04+23.04+4(2.24)=55.04\text{Var}(W) = 23.04 + 23.04 + 4(2.24) = 55.04

Thus, we state the parameters of the combined distribution: W∼N(22,55.04)W \sim \text{N}(22, 55.04).

4. Calculate the final probability using the normal distribution.

P(W>0)=P(Z>0−2255.04)\text{P}(W > 0) = \text{P}\left(Z > \frac{0 - 22}{\sqrt{55.04}}\right)
P(W>0)≈0.99849\text{P}(W > 0) \approx 0.99849
P(W>0)=0.998\text{P}(W > 0) = 0.998 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

0.9980.998

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