一种疾病的基本传染数 R0R_0 是一个数学术语,用以表示一种传染病的传染性。它给出了一个患有该传染病的人平均会传染给其他人的数量。如果社区中没有人接种过该疾病的疫苗,或者没有人对该疾病具有免疫力,这种复制传播将会持续下去。 一种疾病的传染期是指感染者可以向其接触的任何易感者传播该疾病的时间段。例如,如果某种疾病的 R0R_0 为 3,那么患有该疾病的人在传染期内平均会将该疾病传染给另外 3 个人。假设传染期为 2 周,且最初有 xx 人感染,则在第 2 周平均感染人数为 3x3x,在第 4 周为 32x3^2x,在第 6 周为 33x3^3x,依此类推。 在一个对该病毒没有免疫力的大量人群中,最初有 1 人感染了该病毒。已知该病毒的 R0R_0 为 2.5,传染期为 2 周。

  1. (i)

    证明该病毒感染 1000 人所需的最少周数为 16 周。

  2. (ii)

    确定该病毒感染接下来的 1000 人所需要的最少周数。

  3. (iii)

    一个提出的模型指出,在第 nn 周结束时被感染的人数 unu_n 由下式给出:

    un=un−1+2n+n−1u_n = u_{n-1} + 2^n + n - 1

    令 u0=1u_0 = 1,并通过考虑 un−un−1u_n - u_{n-1},求用 nn 表示的第 nn 周结束时的感染人数。

  4. (iv)

    当卫生部门获悉病毒通过指示病例传播时,立即采取了行动,并开始对人群进行选择性检测。起初,他们每天只能进行 300 次检测。他们能够每 7 天(1 周)将每日检测次数增加 100 次。在这种情况下,第 1 周每天进行 300 次检测,第 2 周每天进行 400 次检测,依此类推。

    确定对 200 000 人进行检测所需的最少周数。

  5. (v)

    一种实验性疫苗被发现对该病毒有效,并且全体人口都将接种该疫苗。

    有人建议,起初接种该疫苗的人数占总人口的 10%,随后每周接种的人数均为上一周的 90%。评述该提案的可行性,并说明你的理由。

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完整解法

12(i)

1. Formulate the inequality for the number of infected people in the $k$-th infectious period.

Let kk be the number of 2-week infectious periods.
Based on the given model, the number of newly infected people in period kk (which corresponds to week 2k2k) forms a geometric sequence:
uk=1×2.5ku_k = 1 \times 2.5^k
We require the number of infected people in a cycle to be at least 10001000:
2.5k≥10002.5^k \ge 1000

2. Solve the exponential inequality to find $k$, and hence find the least number of weeks.

Taking the natural logarithm on both sides:
kln⁡2.5≥ln⁡1000k \ln 2.5 \ge \ln 1000
k≥ln⁡1000ln⁡2.5k \ge \frac{\ln 1000}{\ln 2.5}
k≥7.538k \ge 7.538
Since kk represents discrete infectious periods, it must be an integer. The least integer value for kk is 88.
Thus, the least number of weeks is 2k=2(8)=162k = 2(8) = 16. (Shown)

答案

16

12(ii)

1. Set up the inequality for the total reaching 2000

After week 2n2n the number infected is 2.5n2.5^{n} (initial 1 person, common ratio 2.52.5). To infect the next 1000 people, the total infected must reach 1000+1000=20001000+1000 = 2000:
2.5n≥2000.2.5^{n} \ge 2000.

2. Solve using logarithms and convert to weeks

Taking logarithms:
n≥lg⁡2000lg⁡2.5=3.301030.39794=8.30.n \ge \frac{\lg 2000}{\lg 2.5} = \frac{3.30103}{0.39794} = 8.30.
Since nn must be an integer, the least value is n=9n = 9.
Check: 2.58=1526<20002.5^{8} = 1526 < 2000 and 2.59=3815≥20002.5^{9} = 3815 \ge 2000. ✓
Number of weeks =2n=2(9)=18= 2n = 2(9) = 18.

答案

It would take a least of 18 weeks.

12(iii)

1. Set up equations by substituting values from $1$ to $n$ and sum them to obtain $u_n - u_0$.

Listing the equations for consecutive values of the index:
u1−u0=21+1−1u_1 - u_0 = 2^1 + 1 - 1
u2−u1=22+2−1u_2 - u_1 = 2^2 + 2 - 1
u3−u2=23+3−1u_3 - u_2 = 2^3 + 3 - 1
⋮\vdots
un−un−1=2n+n−1u_n - u_{n-1} = 2^n + n - 1

Summing all nn equations vertically, the terms on the left-hand side telescope (cancel out) to leave only un−u0u_n - u_0:
un−u0=(21+22+⋯+2n)+(0+1+2+⋯+n−1)u_n - u_0 = (2^1 + 2^2 + \dots + 2^n) + (0 + 1 + 2 + \dots + n - 1)

2. Evaluate the sum of the geometric progression part.

The first group of terms is a geometric progression with first term a=2a = 2, common ratio r=2r = 2, and nn terms:
SGP=a(rn−1)r−1S_{GP} = \frac{a(r^n - 1)}{r - 1}
SGP=2(2n−1)2−1=2n+1−2S_{GP} = \frac{2(2^n - 1)}{2 - 1} = 2^{n+1} - 2

3. Evaluate the sum of the arithmetic progression part.

The second group of terms is an arithmetic progression with first term a=0a = 0, last term l=n−1l = n-1, and nn terms:
SAP=n2(a+l)S_{AP} = \frac{n}{2}(a + l)
SAP=n2(0+n−1)=n(n−1)2S_{AP} = \frac{n}{2}(0 + n - 1) = \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

4. Combine the sums and the initial value to find an explicit formula for $u_n$.

Substitute the evaluated sums back into the overall equation, along with the given initial value u0=1u_0 = 1:
un−1=(2n+1−2)+n(n−1)2u_n - 1 = (2^{n+1} - 2) + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}
un=2n+1−1+n(n−1)2u_n = 2^{n+1} - 1 + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

答案

2n+1−1+n(n−1)22^{n+1} - 1 + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

12(iv)

1. Identify the weekly testing sequence as an arithmetic progression and state its parameters.

In week 1, tests conducted = 300×7=2100300 \times 7 = 2100.
In week 2, tests conducted = 400×7=2800400 \times 7 = 2800.
The number of weekly tests forms an arithmetic progression with first term a=2100a = 2100 and common difference d=2800−2100=700d = 2800 - 2100 = 700.

2. Formulate an inequality for the sum of tests over $n$ weeks.

Let SnS_n be the total number of tests conducted in nn weeks.
We require Sn≥200 000S_n \ge 200\,000.
Using the sum formula Sn=n2[2a+(n−1)d]S_n = \frac{n}{2}[2a + (n-1)d]:
n2[2(2100)+(n−1)(700)]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[2(2100) + (n-1)(700)] \ge 200\,000
n2[4200+700n−700]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[4200 + 700n - 700] \ge 200\,000
n2[700n+3500]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[700n + 3500] \ge 200\,000
350n2+1750n−200 000≥0350n^2 + 1750n - 200\,000 \ge 0

3. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the least integer number of weeks.

Dividing by 350:
n2+5n−40007≥0n^2 + 5n - \frac{4000}{7} \ge 0
7n2+35n−4000≥07n^2 + 35n - 4000 \ge 0

Solving 7n2+35n−4000=07n^2 + 35n - 4000 = 0 using the quadratic formula:
n=−35±352−4(7)(−4000)2(7)n = \frac{-35 \pm \sqrt{35^2 - 4(7)(-4000)}}{2(7)}
n=−35±11322514n = \frac{-35 \pm \sqrt{113225}}{14}
Taking the positive root:
n≈−35+336.48914≈21.53n \approx \frac{-35 + 336.489}{14} \approx 21.53

Since nn must be an integer, the least number of weeks is 2222.

答案

2222 weeks

12(v)

1. Model the total percentage of the population vaccinated as a geometric series and find the sum to infinity.

Let the total population be PP. The number of people inoculated each week forms a geometric progression with first term a=0.1Pa = 0.1P and common ratio r=0.9r = 0.9.
The theoretical maximum number of people that can be inoculated is given by the sum to infinity of this series:
S∞=a1−r=0.1P1−0.9=0.1P0.1=PS_\infty = \frac{a}{1 - r} = \frac{0.1P}{1 - 0.9} = \frac{0.1P}{0.1} = P
This confirms the series converges to exactly 100% of the population.

2. Evaluate the feasibility by considering the time required to reach this theoretical limit.

The total number of people vaccinated after nn weeks is given by Sn=0.1P(1−0.9n)1−0.9=P(1−0.9n)S_n = \frac{0.1P(1 - 0.9^n)}{1 - 0.9} = P(1 - 0.9^n).
For the whole population to be fully inoculated, we require P(1−0.9n)=PP(1 - 0.9^n) = P, which simplifies to 0.9n=00.9^n = 0.
This equation has no finite solution for nn and is only satisfied as n→∞n \to \infty. Therefore, it would take an infinite amount of time (weeks) to inoculate the whole population, making the proposal practically unfeasible.

答案

The proposal is not feasible. Although the sum to infinity of the percentage of people vaccinated is exactly 100%, it would theoretically take an infinite number of weeks to inoculate the entire population.

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