The reproduction number, R0R_0, of a disease is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It gives the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from a person with that disease. That replication will continue if no one has been vaccinated against the disease or is already immune to it in his or her community. The infectious period of a disease is the time period during which an infected person can transmit the disease to any susceptible person he/she contacts. For example, if a disease has an R0R_0 of 3, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 3 other people during the infectious period. Given that the infectious period is 2 weeks and initially xx people were infected, the average number of people infected is 3x3x in week 2, 32x3^2x in week 4, 33x3^3x in week 6, and so on. In a large population of people with no immunity to a virus, initially one person was infected with the virus. It is given that this virus has an R0R_0 of 2.5 and the infectious period is 2 weeks.

  1. (i)

    Show that the least number of weeks it would take for the virus to infect 1000 people is 16.

  2. (ii)

    Determine the least number of weeks it would take for the virus to infect the next 1000 people.

  3. (iii)

    A proposed model claimed the number of people infected, unu_n, at the end of the nnth week is given by

    un=un−1+2n+n−1u_n = u_{n-1} + 2^n + n - 1

    By letting u0=1u_0 = 1, and considering un−un−1u_n - u_{n-1}, find in terms of nn, the number of people infected at the end of the nnth week.

  4. (iv)

    The health authority took immediate action when they learnt of the spread of the virus through an index case and began selective testing of the population. Initially they were only able to conduct 300 tests a day. They were able to ramp up the number of daily tests by 100 in every 7 days (1 week). In this case, 300 tests were conducted daily in week 1, 400 tests were conducted daily in week 2, and so on.

    Determine the least number of weeks it would take to test 200 000 people.

  5. (v)

    An experimental vaccine is found to be effective against the virus and the whole population is to be inoculated with the vaccine.

    It is suggested that initially 10% of the population would be inoculated with the vaccine and then every week, the number of people inoculated would be 90% of the previous week. Comment on the feasibility of this proposal, justifying your answer.

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Worked solution

12(i)

1. Formulate the inequality for the number of infected people in the $k$-th infectious period.

Let kk be the number of 2-week infectious periods.
Based on the given model, the number of newly infected people in period kk (which corresponds to week 2k2k) forms a geometric sequence:
uk=1×2.5ku_k = 1 \times 2.5^k
We require the number of infected people in a cycle to be at least 10001000:
2.5k≥10002.5^k \ge 1000

2. Solve the exponential inequality to find $k$, and hence find the least number of weeks.

Taking the natural logarithm on both sides:
kln⁡2.5≥ln⁡1000k \ln 2.5 \ge \ln 1000
k≥ln⁡1000ln⁡2.5k \ge \frac{\ln 1000}{\ln 2.5}
k≥7.538k \ge 7.538
Since kk represents discrete infectious periods, it must be an integer. The least integer value for kk is 88.
Thus, the least number of weeks is 2k=2(8)=162k = 2(8) = 16. (Shown)

Answer

16

12(ii)

1. Set up the inequality for the total reaching 2000

After week 2n2n the number infected is 2.5n2.5^{n} (initial 1 person, common ratio 2.52.5). To infect the next 1000 people, the total infected must reach 1000+1000=20001000+1000 = 2000:
2.5n≥2000.2.5^{n} \ge 2000.

2. Solve using logarithms and convert to weeks

Taking logarithms:
n≥lg⁡2000lg⁡2.5=3.301030.39794=8.30.n \ge \frac{\lg 2000}{\lg 2.5} = \frac{3.30103}{0.39794} = 8.30.
Since nn must be an integer, the least value is n=9n = 9.
Check: 2.58=1526<20002.5^{8} = 1526 < 2000 and 2.59=3815≥20002.5^{9} = 3815 \ge 2000. ✓
Number of weeks =2n=2(9)=18= 2n = 2(9) = 18.

Answer

It would take a least of 18 weeks.

12(iii)

1. Set up equations by substituting values from $1$ to $n$ and sum them to obtain $u_n - u_0$.

Listing the equations for consecutive values of the index:
u1−u0=21+1−1u_1 - u_0 = 2^1 + 1 - 1
u2−u1=22+2−1u_2 - u_1 = 2^2 + 2 - 1
u3−u2=23+3−1u_3 - u_2 = 2^3 + 3 - 1
⋮\vdots
un−un−1=2n+n−1u_n - u_{n-1} = 2^n + n - 1

Summing all nn equations vertically, the terms on the left-hand side telescope (cancel out) to leave only un−u0u_n - u_0:
un−u0=(21+22+⋯+2n)+(0+1+2+⋯+n−1)u_n - u_0 = (2^1 + 2^2 + \dots + 2^n) + (0 + 1 + 2 + \dots + n - 1)

2. Evaluate the sum of the geometric progression part.

The first group of terms is a geometric progression with first term a=2a = 2, common ratio r=2r = 2, and nn terms:
SGP=a(rn−1)r−1S_{GP} = \frac{a(r^n - 1)}{r - 1}
SGP=2(2n−1)2−1=2n+1−2S_{GP} = \frac{2(2^n - 1)}{2 - 1} = 2^{n+1} - 2

3. Evaluate the sum of the arithmetic progression part.

The second group of terms is an arithmetic progression with first term a=0a = 0, last term l=n−1l = n-1, and nn terms:
SAP=n2(a+l)S_{AP} = \frac{n}{2}(a + l)
SAP=n2(0+n−1)=n(n−1)2S_{AP} = \frac{n}{2}(0 + n - 1) = \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

4. Combine the sums and the initial value to find an explicit formula for $u_n$.

Substitute the evaluated sums back into the overall equation, along with the given initial value u0=1u_0 = 1:
un−1=(2n+1−2)+n(n−1)2u_n - 1 = (2^{n+1} - 2) + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}
un=2n+1−1+n(n−1)2u_n = 2^{n+1} - 1 + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

Answer

2n+1−1+n(n−1)22^{n+1} - 1 + \frac{n(n-1)}{2}

12(iv)

1. Identify the weekly testing sequence as an arithmetic progression and state its parameters.

In week 1, tests conducted = 300×7=2100300 \times 7 = 2100.
In week 2, tests conducted = 400×7=2800400 \times 7 = 2800.
The number of weekly tests forms an arithmetic progression with first term a=2100a = 2100 and common difference d=2800−2100=700d = 2800 - 2100 = 700.

2. Formulate an inequality for the sum of tests over $n$ weeks.

Let SnS_n be the total number of tests conducted in nn weeks.
We require Sn≥200 000S_n \ge 200\,000.
Using the sum formula Sn=n2[2a+(n−1)d]S_n = \frac{n}{2}[2a + (n-1)d]:
n2[2(2100)+(n−1)(700)]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[2(2100) + (n-1)(700)] \ge 200\,000
n2[4200+700n−700]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[4200 + 700n - 700] \ge 200\,000
n2[700n+3500]≥200 000\frac{n}{2}[700n + 3500] \ge 200\,000
350n2+1750n−200 000≥0350n^2 + 1750n - 200\,000 \ge 0

3. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the least integer number of weeks.

Dividing by 350:
n2+5n−40007≥0n^2 + 5n - \frac{4000}{7} \ge 0
7n2+35n−4000≥07n^2 + 35n - 4000 \ge 0

Solving 7n2+35n−4000=07n^2 + 35n - 4000 = 0 using the quadratic formula:
n=−35±352−4(7)(−4000)2(7)n = \frac{-35 \pm \sqrt{35^2 - 4(7)(-4000)}}{2(7)}
n=−35±11322514n = \frac{-35 \pm \sqrt{113225}}{14}
Taking the positive root:
n≈−35+336.48914≈21.53n \approx \frac{-35 + 336.489}{14} \approx 21.53

Since nn must be an integer, the least number of weeks is 2222.

Answer

2222 weeks

12(v)

1. Model the total percentage of the population vaccinated as a geometric series and find the sum to infinity.

Let the total population be PP. The number of people inoculated each week forms a geometric progression with first term a=0.1Pa = 0.1P and common ratio r=0.9r = 0.9.
The theoretical maximum number of people that can be inoculated is given by the sum to infinity of this series:
S∞=a1−r=0.1P1−0.9=0.1P0.1=PS_\infty = \frac{a}{1 - r} = \frac{0.1P}{1 - 0.9} = \frac{0.1P}{0.1} = P
This confirms the series converges to exactly 100% of the population.

2. Evaluate the feasibility by considering the time required to reach this theoretical limit.

The total number of people vaccinated after nn weeks is given by Sn=0.1P(1−0.9n)1−0.9=P(1−0.9n)S_n = \frac{0.1P(1 - 0.9^n)}{1 - 0.9} = P(1 - 0.9^n).
For the whole population to be fully inoculated, we require P(1−0.9n)=PP(1 - 0.9^n) = P, which simplifies to 0.9n=00.9^n = 0.
This equation has no finite solution for nn and is only satisfied as n→∞n \to \infty. Therefore, it would take an infinite amount of time (weeks) to inoculate the whole population, making the proposal practically unfeasible.

Answer

The proposal is not feasible. Although the sum to infinity of the percentage of people vaccinated is exactly 100%, it would theoretically take an infinite number of weeks to inoculate the entire population.

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