在一个拥有 500 万人口的城市中,一家新公司的客户数量增长率与非其客户的人数成正比。该公司认定,为了使业务盈利,在任何时间点,它必须拥有至少 100 万客户。 该公司在运营第三年结束时拥有 100 万客户,其初始客户数量为 0。假设在任何时间点人口都保持不变。

  1. (i)

    列出包含 yy 和 tt 的微分方程,其中 yy 是客户数量(以百万计),tt 是从公司开始运营起算的时间(以年计)。由此证明 y=5(1−e−kt)y=5(1-e^{-kt}),其中 kk 是一个待确定的常数。

  2. (ii)

    画出 yy 关于 tt 的图象。

  3. (iii)

    在运营第 6 年结束时,该公司的客户基数为 180 万。然而,由于出现新的竞争对手,其客户数量的增长率现在由以下方程建模:

    d2ydt2=−0.1.\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1.

    已知在该模型下,在接下来的一个运营年度结束时,其客户数量将下降至 165 万。

    确定在第几年,该公司的业务将变得不再盈利。

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完整解法

11(i)

1. Formulate the differential equation based on the text.

The rate of change of the number of customers, yy, is proportional to the number of people who are not its customers, which is (5−y)(5 - y). Thus, the differential equation is:
dydt=k(5−y)\frac{dy}{dt} = k(5 - y)
where kk is a positive constant of proportionality.

2. Separate variables and integrate both sides.

∫15−y dy=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{5 - y} \, dy = \int k \, dt
−ln⁡∣5−y∣=kt+C-\ln|5 - y| = kt + C

3. Apply the initial condition to find the constant of integration $C$.

Starting from a customer base of 00 means y=0y = 0 when t=0t = 0. Since 5−y>05 - y > 0, we can drop the absolute value:
−ln⁡(5−0)=k(0)+C-\ln(5 - 0) = k(0) + C
C=−ln⁡5C = -\ln 5

4. Make $y$ the subject to show the required equation.

Substitute CC back into the equation:
−ln⁡(5−y)=kt−ln⁡5-\ln(5 - y) = kt - \ln 5
ln⁡(5−y)=−kt+ln⁡5\ln(5 - y) = -kt + \ln 5
5−y=e−kt+ln⁡55 - y = e^{-kt + \ln 5}
5−y=eln⁡5e−kt5 - y = e^{\ln 5} e^{-kt}
5−y=5e−kt5 - y = 5e^{-kt}
y=5−5e−kt=5(1−e−kt)y = 5 - 5e^{-kt} = 5(1 - e^{-kt})
(Shown)

5. Determine the value of the constant $k$.

The company has 1 million customers at the end of the third year, meaning y=1y = 1 when t=3t = 3. Substitute these values into the equation:
1=5(1−e−3k)1 = 5(1 - e^{-3k})
1−e−3k=0.21 - e^{-3k} = 0.2
e−3k=0.8e^{-3k} = 0.8
−3k=ln⁡0.8-3k = \ln 0.8
k=−13ln⁡0.8≈0.0744 (to 3 s.f.)k = -\frac{1}{3}\ln 0.8 \approx 0.0744 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

dydt=k(5−y)\frac{dy}{dt} = k(5 - y)
k=−13ln⁡0.8≈0.0744k = -\frac{1}{3}\ln 0.8 \approx 0.0744

11(ii)

1. Determine the starting point and domain of the function.

For t=0t = 0, y=5(1−e0)=0y = 5(1 - e^0) = 0. The context of the problem dictates that time t≥0t \ge 0, so the graph must start from the origin (0,0)(0,0).

2. Find the long-term behaviour to determine any asymptotes.

As t→∞t \to \infty, the term e−kt→0e^{-kt} \to 0 (since kk is a positive constant). Therefore, y→5(1−0)=5y \to 5(1 - 0) = 5. The graph has a horizontal asymptote at y=5y = 5. The curve approaches this line from below with a decreasing gradient.

答案

A sketch on tt-yy axes for t≥0t \ge 0 showing:

  • A starting point at the origin (0,0)(0,0).
  • A concave-down curve with a positive, decreasing gradient.
  • A horizontal dotted line at y=5y=5 labelled as an asymptote.
  • (Optional) The known point (3,1)(3, 1) indicated on the curve.

11(iii)

1. Find the general solution for $y$ by integrating twice.

d2ydt2=−0.1\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1
dydt=∫−0.1 dt=−0.1t+c1\frac{dy}{dt} = \int -0.1 \,dt = -0.1t + c_1
y=∫(−0.1t+c1) dt=−0.05t2+c1t+c2y = \int (-0.1t + c_1) \,dt = -0.05t^2 + c_1t + c_2

2. Set up simultaneous equations using the values of $y$ at $t=6$ and $t=7$.

At the end of the 6th year, t=6t = 6 and y=1.8y = 1.8:
1.8=−0.05(6)2+6c1+c21.8 = -0.05(6)^2 + 6c_1 + c_2
6c1+c2=3.6— (1)6c_1 + c_2 = 3.6 \quad \text{--- (1)}
At the end of the 7th year, t=7t = 7 and y=1.65y = 1.65:
1.65=−0.05(7)2+7c1+c21.65 = -0.05(7)^2 + 7c_1 + c_2
7c1+c2=4.1— (2)7c_1 + c_2 = 4.1 \quad \text{--- (2)}

3. Solve the simultaneous equations to find the specific equation for $y$.

Subtracting (1) from (2):
c1=4.1−3.6=0.5c_1 = 4.1 - 3.6 = 0.5
Substitute c1=0.5c_1 = 0.5 into (1):
6(0.5)+c2=3.6  ⟹  c2=0.66(0.5) + c_2 = 3.6 \implies c_2 = 0.6
Therefore, the model is:
y=−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6y = -0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6

4. Set $y < 1$ (the profitability threshold) to find the critical value of $t$.

The business is unprofitable when y<1y < 1:
−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6<1-0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6 < 1
−0.05t2+0.5t−0.4<0-0.05t^2 + 0.5t - 0.4 < 0
Divide by −0.05-0.05 (reversing the inequality):
t2−10t+8>0t^2 - 10t + 8 > 0
Solving the corresponding quadratic equation t2−10t+8=0t^2 - 10t + 8 = 0:
t=10±100−322=5±17t = \frac{10 \pm \sqrt{100 - 32}}{2} = 5 \pm \sqrt{17}
t≈9.123ort≈0.877t \approx 9.123 \quad \text{or} \quad t \approx 0.877

5. Conclude the correct year based on the condition $t \ge 6$.

Since the model is valid from t=6t = 6, we reject t≈0.877t \approx 0.877 and require t>9.123t > 9.123.
The number of customers drops below 1 million when t>9.123t > 9.123.
Because 9<9.123≤109 < 9.123 \le 10, this occurs during the 10th year of operation.

答案

10^{\text{th}} \text{ year}

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