In a city of 5 million people, the number of customers of a new company increases at a rate proportional to the number of people who are not its customers. The company determines that in order for its business to be profitable, it must have at least 1 million customers at any point in time. The company has 1 million customers at the end of the third year of operation, starting from a customer base of 0. Assume that the population remains unchanged at any point in time.

  1. (i)

    State a differential equation involving yy and tt, where yy is the number of customers (in millions) and tt is the number of years from the time the company starts its operation. Hence show that y=5(1−e−kt)y=5(1-e^{-kt}), where kk is a constant to be determined.

  2. (ii)

    Sketch the graph of yy against tt.

  3. (iii)

    At the end of the 6th year of operation, the company has a customer base of 1.8 million. However, due to new competitors, the growth rate of its number of customers is now modelled by the equation

    d2ydt2=−0.1.\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1.

    It is known that under this model, its number of customers would drop to 1.65 million at the end of the following year of operation.

    Determine in which year the company's business will become unprofitable.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Formulate the differential equation based on the text.

The rate of change of the number of customers, yy, is proportional to the number of people who are not its customers, which is (5−y)(5 - y). Thus, the differential equation is:
dydt=k(5−y)\frac{dy}{dt} = k(5 - y)
where kk is a positive constant of proportionality.

2. Separate variables and integrate both sides.

∫15−y dy=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{5 - y} \, dy = \int k \, dt
−ln⁡∣5−y∣=kt+C-\ln|5 - y| = kt + C

3. Apply the initial condition to find the constant of integration $C$.

Starting from a customer base of 00 means y=0y = 0 when t=0t = 0. Since 5−y>05 - y > 0, we can drop the absolute value:
−ln⁡(5−0)=k(0)+C-\ln(5 - 0) = k(0) + C
C=−ln⁡5C = -\ln 5

4. Make $y$ the subject to show the required equation.

Substitute CC back into the equation:
−ln⁡(5−y)=kt−ln⁡5-\ln(5 - y) = kt - \ln 5
ln⁡(5−y)=−kt+ln⁡5\ln(5 - y) = -kt + \ln 5
5−y=e−kt+ln⁡55 - y = e^{-kt + \ln 5}
5−y=eln⁡5e−kt5 - y = e^{\ln 5} e^{-kt}
5−y=5e−kt5 - y = 5e^{-kt}
y=5−5e−kt=5(1−e−kt)y = 5 - 5e^{-kt} = 5(1 - e^{-kt})
(Shown)

5. Determine the value of the constant $k$.

The company has 1 million customers at the end of the third year, meaning y=1y = 1 when t=3t = 3. Substitute these values into the equation:
1=5(1−e−3k)1 = 5(1 - e^{-3k})
1−e−3k=0.21 - e^{-3k} = 0.2
e−3k=0.8e^{-3k} = 0.8
−3k=ln⁡0.8-3k = \ln 0.8
k=−13ln⁡0.8≈0.0744 (to 3 s.f.)k = -\frac{1}{3}\ln 0.8 \approx 0.0744 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

dydt=k(5−y)\frac{dy}{dt} = k(5 - y)
k=−13ln⁡0.8≈0.0744k = -\frac{1}{3}\ln 0.8 \approx 0.0744

11(ii)

1. Determine the starting point and domain of the function.

For t=0t = 0, y=5(1−e0)=0y = 5(1 - e^0) = 0. The context of the problem dictates that time t≥0t \ge 0, so the graph must start from the origin (0,0)(0,0).

2. Find the long-term behaviour to determine any asymptotes.

As t→∞t \to \infty, the term e−kt→0e^{-kt} \to 0 (since kk is a positive constant). Therefore, y→5(1−0)=5y \to 5(1 - 0) = 5. The graph has a horizontal asymptote at y=5y = 5. The curve approaches this line from below with a decreasing gradient.

Answer

A sketch on tt-yy axes for t≥0t \ge 0 showing:

  • A starting point at the origin (0,0)(0,0).
  • A concave-down curve with a positive, decreasing gradient.
  • A horizontal dotted line at y=5y=5 labelled as an asymptote.
  • (Optional) The known point (3,1)(3, 1) indicated on the curve.

11(iii)

1. Find the general solution for $y$ by integrating twice.

d2ydt2=−0.1\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1
dydt=∫−0.1 dt=−0.1t+c1\frac{dy}{dt} = \int -0.1 \,dt = -0.1t + c_1
y=∫(−0.1t+c1) dt=−0.05t2+c1t+c2y = \int (-0.1t + c_1) \,dt = -0.05t^2 + c_1t + c_2

2. Set up simultaneous equations using the values of $y$ at $t=6$ and $t=7$.

At the end of the 6th year, t=6t = 6 and y=1.8y = 1.8:
1.8=−0.05(6)2+6c1+c21.8 = -0.05(6)^2 + 6c_1 + c_2
6c1+c2=3.6— (1)6c_1 + c_2 = 3.6 \quad \text{--- (1)}
At the end of the 7th year, t=7t = 7 and y=1.65y = 1.65:
1.65=−0.05(7)2+7c1+c21.65 = -0.05(7)^2 + 7c_1 + c_2
7c1+c2=4.1— (2)7c_1 + c_2 = 4.1 \quad \text{--- (2)}

3. Solve the simultaneous equations to find the specific equation for $y$.

Subtracting (1) from (2):
c1=4.1−3.6=0.5c_1 = 4.1 - 3.6 = 0.5
Substitute c1=0.5c_1 = 0.5 into (1):
6(0.5)+c2=3.6  ⟹  c2=0.66(0.5) + c_2 = 3.6 \implies c_2 = 0.6
Therefore, the model is:
y=−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6y = -0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6

4. Set $y < 1$ (the profitability threshold) to find the critical value of $t$.

The business is unprofitable when y<1y < 1:
−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6<1-0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6 < 1
−0.05t2+0.5t−0.4<0-0.05t^2 + 0.5t - 0.4 < 0
Divide by −0.05-0.05 (reversing the inequality):
t2−10t+8>0t^2 - 10t + 8 > 0
Solving the corresponding quadratic equation t2−10t+8=0t^2 - 10t + 8 = 0:
t=10±100−322=5±17t = \frac{10 \pm \sqrt{100 - 32}}{2} = 5 \pm \sqrt{17}
t≈9.123ort≈0.877t \approx 9.123 \quad \text{or} \quad t \approx 0.877

5. Conclude the correct year based on the condition $t \ge 6$.

Since the model is valid from t=6t = 6, we reject t≈0.877t \approx 0.877 and require t>9.123t > 9.123.
The number of customers drops below 1 million when t>9.123t > 9.123.
Because 9<9.123≤109 < 9.123 \le 10, this occurs during the 10th year of operation.

Answer

10^{\text{th}} \text{ year}

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