In a large town, the number of people infected by a particular virus tt days after the virus was first discovered is xx. It is assumed that the rate of infection is proportional to xx. Initially there are 5 people who are infected by the virus, and there are 5120 people who are infected by the virus 30 days after the virus was first discovered.

  1. (i)

    Show that x=5(2)t3x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}}.

  2. (ii)

    A cure and vaccine for the virus were discovered and administered to the population 30 days after the virus was discovered. Individuals who were cured are not at risk of reinfection. The number of people infected by the virus pp days after the cure and vaccine were administered is represented by yy. It is believed that the new rate of infection from then on is proportional to 6400y−y26400y - y^2.

    It is given that 30 days after the cure or vaccine was administered, 3200 people remain infected with the virus.

    Show that y=64001+2(p15+H)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} + H\right)}}, where HH is a constant to be determined.

  3. (iii)

    By finding the number of people in the town that will be infected by the virus in the long term, comment on the effectiveness of the cure and vaccine administered.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Formulate a differential equation representing the proportional rate of infection.

The rate of infection is given by dxdt\frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\mathrm{d}t}. Since it is proportional to xx:

dxdt=kx\frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\mathrm{d}t} = kx

where kk is a constant.

2. Solve the separable differential equation to find $x$ in terms of $t$.

∫1x dx=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{x} \,\mathrm{d}x = \int k \,\mathrm{d}t

ln⁡∣x∣=kt+C\ln |x| = kt + C

Since the number of infected people x≥5>0x \ge 5 > 0, we can drop the absolute value:

ln⁡x=kt+C\ln x = kt + C

x=ekt+C=Aektx = e^{kt+C} = Ae^{kt}

where A=eCA = e^C.

3. Apply the initial condition to find the constant $A$.

Initially, there are 55 people infected, so when t=0t = 0, x=5x = 5.

5=Aek(0)  ⟹  A=55 = Ae^{k(0)} \implies A = 5

So, the equation becomes:

x=5ektx = 5e^{kt}

4. Apply the second condition to evaluate the exponential term.

After 30 days, 5120 people are infected, so when t=30t = 30, x=5120x = 5120.

5120=5e30k5120 = 5e^{30k}

e30k=51205e^{30k} = \frac{5120}{5}

e30k=1024e^{30k} = 1024

5. Manipulate logarithms and indices to express $x$ in the required form.

Recognising that 1024=2101024 = 2^{10}:

e30k=210e^{30k} = 2^{10}

Taking the natural logarithm on both sides:

30k=ln⁡(210)=10ln⁡230k = \ln(2^{10}) = 10 \ln 2

k=1030ln⁡2=13ln⁡2k = \frac{10}{30} \ln 2 = \frac{1}{3} \ln 2

Substitute kk back into the expression for xx:

x=5e(13ln⁡2)tx = 5e^{\left(\frac{1}{3} \ln 2\right) t}

x=5(eln⁡2)t3x = 5\left(e^{\ln 2}\right)^{\frac{t}{3}}

x=5(2)t3 (Shown)x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}} \text{ (Shown)}

Answer

x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}} \text{ (Shown)}

11(ii)

1. Formulate the differential equation and separate the variables.

dydp=k(6400y−y2)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}p} = k(6400y - y^2)

dydp=ky(6400−y)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}p} = ky(6400 - y)

∫1y(6400−y) dy=∫k dp\int \frac{1}{y(6400 - y)} \, \mathrm{d}y = \int k \, \mathrm{d}p

2. Use partial fractions to integrate the rational expression.

Let 1y(6400−y)=Ay+B6400−y\frac{1}{y(6400 - y)} = \frac{A}{y} + \frac{B}{6400 - y}

1=A(6400−y)+By1 = A(6400 - y) + By

Substituting y=0  ⟹  A=16400y = 0 \implies A = \frac{1}{6400}

Substituting y=6400  ⟹  B=16400y = 6400 \implies B = \frac{1}{6400}

16400∫(1y+16400−y) dy=∫k dp\frac{1}{6400} \int \left( \frac{1}{y} + \frac{1}{6400 - y} \right) \, \mathrm{d}y = \int k \, \mathrm{d}p

16400(ln⁡y−ln⁡(6400−y))=kp+c\frac{1}{6400} (\ln y - \ln(6400 - y)) = k p + c

ln⁡(y6400−y)=6400kp+6400c\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = 6400kp + 6400c

Let M=6400kM = 6400k and C=6400cC = 6400c.

ln⁡(y6400−y)=Mp+C\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = Mp + C

3. Determine the constant of integration using the initial condition.

At p=0p = 0, the number of infected people yy is the number of people infected 30 days after the virus was originally discovered. From the stem, y=5120y = 5120.

ln⁡(51206400−5120)=M(0)+C\ln \left( \frac{5120}{6400 - 5120} \right) = M(0) + C

ln⁡(51201280)=C  ⟹  C=ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{5120}{1280} \right) = C \implies C = \ln 4

ln⁡(y6400−y)=Mp+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = Mp + \ln 4

4. Use the condition at $p=30$ to find the proportionality constant and convert the relationship to exponential form.

Given at p=30p = 30, y=3200y = 3200:

ln⁡(32006400−3200)=30M+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{3200}{6400 - 3200} \right) = 30M + \ln 4

ln⁡(1)=30M+ln⁡4  ⟹  0=30M+ln⁡4  ⟹  M=−ln⁡430\ln(1) = 30M + \ln 4 \implies 0 = 30M + \ln 4 \implies M = -\frac{\ln 4}{30}

Substitute MM back into the equation:

ln⁡(y6400−y)=−(ln⁡430)p+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = -\left(\frac{\ln 4}{30}\right)p + \ln 4

y6400−y=eln⁡4−p30ln⁡4=eln⁡4⋅(eln⁡4)−p30\frac{y}{6400 - y} = e^{\ln 4 - \frac{p}{30}\ln 4} = e^{\ln 4} \cdot (e^{\ln 4})^{-\frac{p}{30}}

y6400−y=4⋅4−p30=22⋅(22)−p30=22−p15\frac{y}{6400 - y} = 4 \cdot 4^{-\frac{p}{30}} = 2^2 \cdot (2^2)^{-\frac{p}{30}} = 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}

5. Rearrange to make $y$ the subject and deduce the value of $H$.

y=(6400−y)22−p15y = (6400 - y) 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}

y=6400(22−p15)−y(22−p15)y = 6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}) - y(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})

y(1+22−p15)=6400(22−p15)y(1 + 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}) = 6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})

y=6400(22−p15)1+22−p15y = \frac{6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})}{1 + 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}}

Divide numerator and denominator by 22−p152^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}:

y=6400122−p15+1=64001+2p15−2y = \frac{6400}{\frac{1}{2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}} + 1} = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\frac{p}{15} - 2}}

Comparing with y=64001+2(p15+H)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} + H\right)}}, we get H=−2H = -2.

Answer

y=64001+2(p15−2)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)}}, so H=−2H = -2

11(iii)

1. Evaluate the long-term number of infected people by taking the limit as $p \to \infty$.

From part (ii), the solution with the determined constant H=−2H = -2 is y=64001+2(p15−2)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)}}.
In the long term, p→∞p \to \infty.
As p→∞p \to \infty, the exponent (p15−2)→∞\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right) \to \infty, which means 2(p15−2)→∞2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)} \to \infty.
Therefore, the denominator becomes infinitely large:
1+2(p15−2)→∞1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)} \to \infty
Hence, y→0y \to 0.
The number of people infected in the long term is 0.

2. Comment on the effectiveness of the cure and vaccine based on the mathematical result.

Since the number of infected people eventually reaches 0, the virus will be completely eradicated.
This implies that the cure and vaccine administered are highly effective.

Answer

The number of people infected in the long term is 0.
The cure and vaccine are highly effective as the virus will eventually be completely eradicated.

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