在一个大城镇中,在首次发现某种病毒 tt 天后,感染该病毒的人数为 xx。假设感染率与 xx 成正比。起初有 5 人感染该病毒,在首次发现该病毒 30 天后,有 5120 人感染。

  1. (i)

    证明 x=5(2)t3x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}}。

  2. (ii)

    在发现该病毒 30 天后,人们发现了该病毒的治疗方法和疫苗,并向人群提供。治愈的人没有再次感染的风险。在提供治疗方法和疫苗 pp 天后,感染该病毒的人数用 yy 表示。据信,从那时起新的感染率与 6400y−y26400y - y^2 成正比。

    已知在提供治疗方法或疫苗 30 天后,仍有 3200 人感染该病毒。

    证明 y=64001+2(p15+H)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} + H\right)}},其中 HH 是待确定的常数。

  3. (iii)

    通过求长期来看该城镇中将被该病毒感染的人数,评论所提供的治疗方法 and 疫苗的有效性。

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完整解法

11(i)

1. Formulate a differential equation representing the proportional rate of infection.

The rate of infection is given by dxdt\frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\mathrm{d}t}. Since it is proportional to xx:

dxdt=kx\frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\mathrm{d}t} = kx

where kk is a constant.

2. Solve the separable differential equation to find $x$ in terms of $t$.

∫1x dx=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{x} \,\mathrm{d}x = \int k \,\mathrm{d}t

ln⁡∣x∣=kt+C\ln |x| = kt + C

Since the number of infected people x≥5>0x \ge 5 > 0, we can drop the absolute value:

ln⁡x=kt+C\ln x = kt + C

x=ekt+C=Aektx = e^{kt+C} = Ae^{kt}

where A=eCA = e^C.

3. Apply the initial condition to find the constant $A$.

Initially, there are 55 people infected, so when t=0t = 0, x=5x = 5.

5=Aek(0)  ⟹  A=55 = Ae^{k(0)} \implies A = 5

So, the equation becomes:

x=5ektx = 5e^{kt}

4. Apply the second condition to evaluate the exponential term.

After 30 days, 5120 people are infected, so when t=30t = 30, x=5120x = 5120.

5120=5e30k5120 = 5e^{30k}

e30k=51205e^{30k} = \frac{5120}{5}

e30k=1024e^{30k} = 1024

5. Manipulate logarithms and indices to express $x$ in the required form.

Recognising that 1024=2101024 = 2^{10}:

e30k=210e^{30k} = 2^{10}

Taking the natural logarithm on both sides:

30k=ln⁡(210)=10ln⁡230k = \ln(2^{10}) = 10 \ln 2

k=1030ln⁡2=13ln⁡2k = \frac{10}{30} \ln 2 = \frac{1}{3} \ln 2

Substitute kk back into the expression for xx:

x=5e(13ln⁡2)tx = 5e^{\left(\frac{1}{3} \ln 2\right) t}

x=5(eln⁡2)t3x = 5\left(e^{\ln 2}\right)^{\frac{t}{3}}

x=5(2)t3 (Shown)x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}} \text{ (Shown)}

答案

x = 5(2)^{\frac{t}{3}} \text{ (Shown)}

11(ii)

1. Formulate the differential equation and separate the variables.

dydp=k(6400y−y2)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}p} = k(6400y - y^2)

dydp=ky(6400−y)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}p} = ky(6400 - y)

∫1y(6400−y) dy=∫k dp\int \frac{1}{y(6400 - y)} \, \mathrm{d}y = \int k \, \mathrm{d}p

2. Use partial fractions to integrate the rational expression.

Let 1y(6400−y)=Ay+B6400−y\frac{1}{y(6400 - y)} = \frac{A}{y} + \frac{B}{6400 - y}

1=A(6400−y)+By1 = A(6400 - y) + By

Substituting y=0  ⟹  A=16400y = 0 \implies A = \frac{1}{6400}

Substituting y=6400  ⟹  B=16400y = 6400 \implies B = \frac{1}{6400}

16400∫(1y+16400−y) dy=∫k dp\frac{1}{6400} \int \left( \frac{1}{y} + \frac{1}{6400 - y} \right) \, \mathrm{d}y = \int k \, \mathrm{d}p

16400(ln⁡y−ln⁡(6400−y))=kp+c\frac{1}{6400} (\ln y - \ln(6400 - y)) = k p + c

ln⁡(y6400−y)=6400kp+6400c\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = 6400kp + 6400c

Let M=6400kM = 6400k and C=6400cC = 6400c.

ln⁡(y6400−y)=Mp+C\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = Mp + C

3. Determine the constant of integration using the initial condition.

At p=0p = 0, the number of infected people yy is the number of people infected 30 days after the virus was originally discovered. From the stem, y=5120y = 5120.

ln⁡(51206400−5120)=M(0)+C\ln \left( \frac{5120}{6400 - 5120} \right) = M(0) + C

ln⁡(51201280)=C  ⟹  C=ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{5120}{1280} \right) = C \implies C = \ln 4

ln⁡(y6400−y)=Mp+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = Mp + \ln 4

4. Use the condition at $p=30$ to find the proportionality constant and convert the relationship to exponential form.

Given at p=30p = 30, y=3200y = 3200:

ln⁡(32006400−3200)=30M+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{3200}{6400 - 3200} \right) = 30M + \ln 4

ln⁡(1)=30M+ln⁡4  ⟹  0=30M+ln⁡4  ⟹  M=−ln⁡430\ln(1) = 30M + \ln 4 \implies 0 = 30M + \ln 4 \implies M = -\frac{\ln 4}{30}

Substitute MM back into the equation:

ln⁡(y6400−y)=−(ln⁡430)p+ln⁡4\ln \left( \frac{y}{6400 - y} \right) = -\left(\frac{\ln 4}{30}\right)p + \ln 4

y6400−y=eln⁡4−p30ln⁡4=eln⁡4⋅(eln⁡4)−p30\frac{y}{6400 - y} = e^{\ln 4 - \frac{p}{30}\ln 4} = e^{\ln 4} \cdot (e^{\ln 4})^{-\frac{p}{30}}

y6400−y=4⋅4−p30=22⋅(22)−p30=22−p15\frac{y}{6400 - y} = 4 \cdot 4^{-\frac{p}{30}} = 2^2 \cdot (2^2)^{-\frac{p}{30}} = 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}

5. Rearrange to make $y$ the subject and deduce the value of $H$.

y=(6400−y)22−p15y = (6400 - y) 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}

y=6400(22−p15)−y(22−p15)y = 6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}) - y(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})

y(1+22−p15)=6400(22−p15)y(1 + 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}) = 6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})

y=6400(22−p15)1+22−p15y = \frac{6400(2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}})}{1 + 2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}}

Divide numerator and denominator by 22−p152^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}:

y=6400122−p15+1=64001+2p15−2y = \frac{6400}{\frac{1}{2^{2 - \frac{p}{15}}} + 1} = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\frac{p}{15} - 2}}

Comparing with y=64001+2(p15+H)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} + H\right)}}, we get H=−2H = -2.

答案

y=64001+2(p15−2)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)}}, so H=−2H = -2

11(iii)

1. Evaluate the long-term number of infected people by taking the limit as $p \to \infty$.

From part (ii), the solution with the determined constant H=−2H = -2 is y=64001+2(p15−2)y = \frac{6400}{1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)}}.
In the long term, p→∞p \to \infty.
As p→∞p \to \infty, the exponent (p15−2)→∞\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right) \to \infty, which means 2(p15−2)→∞2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)} \to \infty.
Therefore, the denominator becomes infinitely large:
1+2(p15−2)→∞1 + 2^{\left(\frac{p}{15} - 2\right)} \to \infty
Hence, y→0y \to 0.
The number of people infected in the long term is 0.

2. Comment on the effectiveness of the cure and vaccine based on the mathematical result.

Since the number of infected people eventually reaches 0, the virus will be completely eradicated.
This implies that the cure and vaccine administered are highly effective.

答案

The number of people infected in the long term is 0.
The cure and vaccine are highly effective as the virus will eventually be completely eradicated.

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