在食堂的饮料摊上,既销售热饮也销售冷饮。每分钟售出的热饮数量服从均值为 0.4 的泊松分布。每分钟售出的冷饮数量服从一个独立的、均值为 0.5 的泊松分布。
- ((i))
证明在给定的 5 分钟时间段内,总共售出超过 4 杯饮料的概率为 0.468(保留 3 位有效数字)。
- ((ii))
在给定的 5 分钟时间段内,最多售出了 4 杯饮料。求它们全是冷饮的概率。
- ((iii))
随机抽取了 20 个 5 分钟时间段。如果在这 20 个时间段中,至少有 个时间段售出超过 4 杯饮料的概率小于 0.4,求 的最小值。
- ((iv))
使用适当的近似,求在 30 分钟时间段内,售出的热饮数量多于冷饮数量的概率。
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完整解法
8((i))
1. Determine the distribution of the total number of drinks sold in a 5-minute period.
Let be the total number of drinks sold in a 5-minute period.
The mean number of hot drinks sold in 5 minutes is .
The mean number of cold drinks sold in 5 minutes is .
Since the distributions are independent, the total number of drinks sold follows a Poisson distribution with mean .
Thus, .
2. Calculate the probability that more than 4 drinks are sold.
We need to find .
Using the complement method:
Evaluating this using a graphing calculator gives:
8((ii))
1. Define the distributions for the number of hot, cold, and total drinks sold in a 5-minute period.
Let and be the number of hot and cold drinks sold in a 5-minute period respectively.
Let be the total number of drinks sold, so .
2. Express the required probability as a conditional probability.
The condition "at most 4 drinks were sold" means .
The event "they are all cold drinks" means (no hot drinks were sold).
3. Evaluate the probabilities using a graphing calculator to find the final answer.
Since and are independent:
Using a graphing calculator:
8((iii))
1. Define the binomial distribution for the number of periods where more than 4 drinks are sold.
Let be the number of 5-minute periods where more than 4 drinks were sold.
Using the more precise probability from (i), (to 5 s.f.),
2. Formulate the probability inequality for the problem.
We are given that the probability of this occurring in at least periods is less than .
3. Test values of $n$ using a graphing calculator to find the least integer.
Using a graphing calculator to generate values for :
When ,
When ,
Thus, the least value of is .
8((iv))
1. Find the mean number of hot and cold drinks sold in a 30-minute period.
Let and be the number of hot and cold drinks sold in 30 minutes, respectively.
2. Determine the normal approximation for the difference in the number of drinks sold.
Since the means are both greater than 10, we can approximate their distributions using the Normal distribution.
Therefore, approximately.
3. Apply continuity correction for the probability calculation.
We need the probability that more hot drinks are sold than cold drinks, which is or .
Since and represent discrete counts, is an integer, so .
Applying the continuity correction, we evaluate the continuous approximation at , finding .
4. Calculate the required probability using the standard normal distribution.
(to 3 s.f.)
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