SS 和 TT 是独立的随机变量,分别服从分布 N(18,32)N(18,3^2) 和 N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2)。已知 P(T<4)=P(T>9)P(T<4)=P(T>9) 且 P(S<3T)=0.65P(S<3T)=0.65。求 μ\mu 和 σ\sigma 的值。 一个水果摊销售包装好的葡萄,每包的质量(以克为单位)服从分布 N(850,302)N(850,30^2)。葡萄的价格为每公斤 $18。 求一名顾客购买两包葡萄所支付的金额超过 $30 的概率。 该水果摊接受现金或 PayNow 支付。一天中用 PayNow 支付的顾客人数是一个均值为 12、方差为 4.8 的随机变量。在一个有 30 天的月份中,求每日平均用 PayNow 支付的顾客人数超过 12.3 的概率。

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完整解法

9(a)

1. Find the mean $\mu$ using the symmetry of the normal distribution.

We are given P(T<4)=P(T>9)P(T < 4) = P(T > 9).
By the symmetry of the normal curve, the mean μ\mu lies exactly midway between 4 and 9:
μ=4+92=6.5\mu = \frac{4 + 9}{2} = 6.5

2. Define a new random variable for the linear combination and find its mean and variance.

Let W=S−3TW = S - 3T.
E(W)=E(S)−3E(T)=18−3(6.5)=−1.5\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(S) - 3\mathrm{E}(T) = 18 - 3(6.5) = -1.5
Var(W)=Var(S)+32Var(T)=32+9σ2=9+9σ2\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(S) + 3^2 \mathrm{Var}(T) = 3^2 + 9\sigma^2 = 9 + 9\sigma^2
Since SS and TT are independent, W∼N(−1.5,9+9σ2)W \sim \mathrm{N}(-1.5, 9 + 9\sigma^2).

3. Standardise $W$ and form an equation using the given probability and the inverse normal distribution.

We are given P(S<3T)=0.65P(S < 3T) = 0.65, which is equivalent to P(W<0)=0.65P(W < 0) = 0.65.
Standardising the normal variable:
P(Z<0−(−1.5)9+9σ2)=0.65P\left(Z < \frac{0 - (-1.5)}{\sqrt{9 + 9\sigma^2}}\right) = 0.65
From the graphing calculator, Φ−1(0.65)≈0.38532\Phi^{-1}(0.65) \approx 0.38532.
1.59+9σ2=0.38532\frac{1.5}{\sqrt{9 + 9\sigma^2}} = 0.38532

4. Solve the algebraic equation for $\sigma$.

9+9σ2=1.50.38532=3.89286\sqrt{9 + 9\sigma^2} = \frac{1.5}{0.38532} = 3.89286
Squaring both sides:
9+9σ2=15.1549 + 9\sigma^2 = 15.154
9σ2=6.154σ2=0.6838σ=0.6838≈0.827 (to 3 s.f.)9\sigma^2 = 6.154 \\ \sigma^2 = 0.6838 \\ \sigma = \sqrt{0.6838} \approx 0.827 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

μ=6.5\mu = 6.5, σ=0.827\sigma = 0.827 (to 3 s.f.)

9(b)(i)

1. Define the random variable for the total cost of two packets and calculate its expectation and variance.

Let XX be the mass of one packet of grapes in grams. X∼N(850,302)X \sim N(850, 30^2).
The total cost of two independent packets is C=0.018X1+0.018X2C = 0.018X_1 + 0.018X_2.
E(C)=0.018(850)+0.018(850)=30.6\text{E}(C) = 0.018(850) + 0.018(850) = 30.6
Var(C)=0.0182(302)+0.0182(302)=0.5832\text{Var}(C) = 0.018^2(30^2) + 0.018^2(30^2) = 0.5832
Thus, C∼N(30.6,0.5832)C \sim N(30.6, 0.5832).

2. Calculate the probability that the total cost exceeds $30.

P(C>30)=0.783965…\text{P}(C > 30) = 0.783965\dots
P(C>30)≈0.784 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(C > 30) \approx 0.784 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.7840.784

9(b)(ii)

1. State the approximate distribution of the sample mean $\bar{X}$ using the Central Limit Theorem.

Let XX be the number of customers who pay by PayNow in a day, and Xˉ\bar{X} be the average number of such customers per day over 30 days.

Given μ=12\mu = 12 and σ2=4.8\sigma^2 = 4.8.
Since the sample size n=30n = 30 is sufficiently large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed:
Xˉ∼N(μ,σ2n)\bar{X} \sim N\left(\mu, \frac{\sigma^2}{n}\right)
Xˉ∼N(12,4.830)\bar{X} \sim N\left(12, \frac{4.8}{30}\right)
Xˉ∼N(12,0.16)\bar{X} \sim N(12, 0.16)

2. Calculate the probability that the average number of customers is more than 12.3.

We want to find P(Xˉ>12.3)P(\bar{X} > 12.3).
Using the standard normal variable Z=Xˉ−μσ/nZ = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}:
P(Xˉ>12.3)=P(Z>12.3−120.16)P(\bar{X} > 12.3) = P\left(Z > \frac{12.3 - 12}{\sqrt{0.16}}\right)
P(Xˉ>12.3)=P(Z>0.30.4)P(\bar{X} > 12.3) = P\left(Z > \frac{0.3}{0.4}\right)
P(Xˉ>12.3)=P(Z>0.75)P(\bar{X} > 12.3) = P(Z > 0.75)
P(Xˉ>12.3)≈0.226627P(\bar{X} > 12.3) \approx 0.226627
P(Xˉ>12.3)≈0.227 (to 3 s.f.)P(\bar{X} > 12.3) \approx 0.227 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.2270.227

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