袋子中装有 6 个红盘、6 个绿盘、6 个黄盘和 6 个蓝盘。除了颜色之外,这些圆盘无法区分。从袋子中不放回地依次取出 4 个圆盘。随机变量 XX 表示取出的 4 个圆盘中所获得的不同颜色的数量。

  1. (a)

    证明 P(X=2)=4651771\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{465}{1771}。

  2. (b)

    由此确定 XX 的概率分布。

  3. (c)

    乔(Joe)玩一个包含 8 轮的游戏,每轮从袋子中抽取 4 个圆盘。在每一轮中,如果他获得最多 2 种不同颜色的圆盘,则赢得 10,否则输掉10,否则输掉 5。每一轮结束后,在下一轮开始之前,所有的圆盘都会放回袋子中。

    求乔在游戏结束时赢得一些钱的概率。

  4. (d)

    通过计算解释,乔玩这个游戏来赢钱是否值得。

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完整解法

8(a)

1. Calculate the total number of ways to select 4 discs from 24.

Total ways to draw 4 discs=24C4=10626\text{Total ways to draw 4 discs} = {}^{24}C_4 = 10626

2. Calculate the number of ways to obtain 3 discs of one colour and 1 of another.

To get exactly 2 colours, the distribution of discs must be either a 3-1 split or a 2-2 split.

Ways for 3-1 split=4C1×6C3×3C1×6C1\text{Ways for 3-1 split} = {}^{4}C_1 \times {}^{6}C_3 \times {}^{3}C_1 \times {}^{6}C_1
=4×20×3×6=1440= 4 \times 20 \times 3 \times 6 = 1440

3. Calculate the number of ways to obtain 2 discs of one colour and 2 of another.

Ways for 2-2 split=4C2×6C2×6C2\text{Ways for 2-2 split} = {}^{4}C_2 \times {}^{6}C_2 \times {}^{6}C_2
=6×15×15=1350= 6 \times 15 \times 15 = 1350

4. Calculate the required probability by summing the valid outcomes and dividing by the total.

Total favourable ways=1440+1350=2790\text{Total favourable ways} = 1440 + 1350 = 2790

P(X=2)=279010626\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{2790}{10626}
=4651771= \frac{465}{1771} (shown)

答案

\frac{465}{1771}

8(b)

1. Identify the total number of possible outcomes for drawing 4 discs.

Total number of discs =6×4=24= 6 \times 4 = 24.
Number of ways to draw 4 discs =(244)=10626= \binom{24}{4} = 10626.

2. Calculate the probability of drawing 4 discs of the same colour ($X=1$).

To get X=1X=1, all 4 discs must be of the same colour.
We first choose 11 of the 44 colours, then select 44 discs out of the 66 available in that colour.

P(X=1)=(41)×(64)10626=4×1510626=6010626=101771\mathrm{P}(X=1) = \frac{\binom{4}{1} \times \binom{6}{4}}{10626} = \frac{4 \times 15}{10626} = \frac{60}{10626} = \frac{10}{1771}

3. Calculate the probability of drawing 4 discs of completely different colours ($X=4$).

To get X=4X=4, we must pick exactly 11 disc from each of the 44 colours.

P(X=4)=(61)410626=129610626=2161771\mathrm{P}(X=4) = \frac{\binom{6}{1}^4}{10626} = \frac{1296}{10626} = \frac{216}{1771}

4. Calculate the remaining probability ($X=3$) and compile the probability distribution table.

Since the sum of all probabilities must equal 11, we can use the complement method along with the value of P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(X=2) given in part (a).

P(X=3)=1−P(X=1)−P(X=2)−P(X=4)\mathrm{P}(X=3) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(X=1) - \mathrm{P}(X=2) - \mathrm{P}(X=4) P(X=3)=1−101771−4651771−2161771=10801771\mathrm{P}(X=3) = 1 - \frac{10}{1771} - \frac{465}{1771} - \frac{216}{1771} = \frac{1080}{1771}

(Alternatively, P(X=3)=(41)(62)×(32)(61)210626=10801771\mathrm{P}(X=3) = \frac{\binom{4}{1}\binom{6}{2} \times \binom{3}{2}\binom{6}{1}^2}{10626} = \frac{1080}{1771})

The probability distribution table is:

x1234P(X=x)1017714651771108017712161771\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline \mathrm{P}(X=x) & \frac{10}{1771} & \frac{465}{1771} & \frac{1080}{1771} & \frac{216}{1771} \\ \hline \end{array}
答案
x1234P(X=x)1017714651771108017712161771\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline \mathrm{P}(X=x) & \frac{10}{1771} & \frac{465}{1771} & \frac{1080}{1771} & \frac{216}{1771} \\ \hline \end{array}

8(c)

1. Find the probability of winning a single round.

From part (b), the probability of getting exactly 1 colour (X=1X=1) is:
P(X=1)=4×(64)(244)=6010626=101771\mathrm{P}(X=1) = \frac{4 \times \binom{6}{4}}{\binom{24}{4}} = \frac{60}{10626} = \frac{10}{1771}

For Joe to win a round, he must obtain at most 2 different colours (X≤2X \le 2). Using the given P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(X=2) from part (a):
P(win)=P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(\text{win}) = \mathrm{P}(X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X=1) + \mathrm{P}(X=2)
P(win)=101771+4651771=4751771\mathrm{P}(\text{win}) = \frac{10}{1771} + \frac{465}{1771} = \frac{475}{1771}

2. Determine the minimum number of winning rounds required to win money overall.

Let WW be the number of winning rounds out of 8. We model this as W∼B(8,4751771)W \sim \mathrm{B}\left(8, \frac{475}{1771}\right).

For Joe to win some money, his total net winnings must be strictly positive:
10W−5(8−W)>010W - 5(8 - W) > 0
15W−40>015W - 40 > 0
W>4015≈2.67W > \frac{40}{15} \approx 2.67

Thus, Joe must win at least 3 rounds (W≥3W \ge 3).

3. Calculate the probability of Joe winning money at the end of the game.

We need to find P(W≥3)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3):
P(W≥3)=1−P(W≤2)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(W \le 2)

Using a graphing calculator's binomial CDF function:
P(W≥3)=1−0.6337005\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) = 1 - 0.6337005
P(W≥3)≈0.366 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) \approx 0.366 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.3660.366

8(d)

1. Find the probability of winning a single round ($P(X \le 2)$).

From part (b), the probability of getting 1 colour is P(X=1)=4×(64)(244)=101771P(X = 1) = \frac{4 \times \binom{6}{4}}{\binom{24}{4}} = \frac{10}{1771}.

The probability of winning a round (getting at most 2 colours) is P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)=101771+4651771=4751771P(X \le 2) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) = \frac{10}{1771} + \frac{465}{1771} = \frac{475}{1771}.

2. Calculate the expected winnings in a single round.

Let WW be the winnings in a single round.
E(W)=$10×P(X≤2)−$5×P(X>2)E(W) = \char36{}10 \times P(X \le 2) - \char36{}5 \times P(X > 2)

E(W)=10(4751771)−5(1−4751771)E(W) = 10 \left(\frac{475}{1771}\right) - 5 \left(1 - \frac{475}{1771}\right)
E(W)=47501771−5(12961771)=−17301771≈−$0.9768E(W) = \frac{4750}{1771} - 5 \left(\frac{1296}{1771}\right) = -\frac{1730}{1771} \approx -\char36{}0.9768

3. Determine the expected winnings for the whole game and conclude.

For the game of 8 rounds, the expected total winnings is 8×E(W)=8(−17301771)=−138401771≈−$7.818 \times E(W) = 8 \left(-\frac{1730}{1771}\right) = -\frac{13840}{1771} \approx -\char36{}7.81.

Since the expected total winnings is negative (an expected loss), it is not worthwhile for Joe to play this game.

答案

No, it is not worthwhile because the expected total winnings for the 8-round game is negative (≈−$7.81\approx -\char36{}7.81).

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