The bag contains 6 red discs, 6 green discs, 6 yellow discs and 6 blue discs. The discs are indistinguishable aside from their colour. 4 discs are taken one after another from the bag without replacement. The random variable XX is the number of different colours obtained among the 4 discs.

  1. (a)

    Show that P(X=2)=4651771\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{465}{1771}.

  2. (b)

    Hence determine the probability distribution of XX.

  3. (c)

    Joe plays a game that comprises 8 rounds of drawing 4 discs from the bag. For each round, he wins 10ifheobtainsatmost2discsofdifferentcolours,otherwiseheloses10 if he obtains at most 2 discs of different colours, otherwise he loses 5. After each round, all the discs are returned to the bag before the next round.

    Find the probability that Joe wins some money at the end of the game.

  4. (d)

    Explain, with working, whether it is worthwhile for Joe to play this game to win money.

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Worked solution

8(a)

1. Calculate the total number of ways to select 4 discs from 24.

Total ways to draw 4 discs=24C4=10626\text{Total ways to draw 4 discs} = {}^{24}C_4 = 10626

2. Calculate the number of ways to obtain 3 discs of one colour and 1 of another.

To get exactly 2 colours, the distribution of discs must be either a 3-1 split or a 2-2 split.

Ways for 3-1 split=4C1×6C3×3C1×6C1\text{Ways for 3-1 split} = {}^{4}C_1 \times {}^{6}C_3 \times {}^{3}C_1 \times {}^{6}C_1
=4×20×3×6=1440= 4 \times 20 \times 3 \times 6 = 1440

3. Calculate the number of ways to obtain 2 discs of one colour and 2 of another.

Ways for 2-2 split=4C2×6C2×6C2\text{Ways for 2-2 split} = {}^{4}C_2 \times {}^{6}C_2 \times {}^{6}C_2
=6×15×15=1350= 6 \times 15 \times 15 = 1350

4. Calculate the required probability by summing the valid outcomes and dividing by the total.

Total favourable ways=1440+1350=2790\text{Total favourable ways} = 1440 + 1350 = 2790

P(X=2)=279010626\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{2790}{10626}
=4651771= \frac{465}{1771} (shown)

Answer

\frac{465}{1771}

8(b)

1. Identify the total number of possible outcomes for drawing 4 discs.

Total number of discs =6×4=24= 6 \times 4 = 24.
Number of ways to draw 4 discs =(244)=10626= \binom{24}{4} = 10626.

2. Calculate the probability of drawing 4 discs of the same colour ($X=1$).

To get X=1X=1, all 4 discs must be of the same colour.
We first choose 11 of the 44 colours, then select 44 discs out of the 66 available in that colour.

P(X=1)=(41)×(64)10626=4×1510626=6010626=101771\mathrm{P}(X=1) = \frac{\binom{4}{1} \times \binom{6}{4}}{10626} = \frac{4 \times 15}{10626} = \frac{60}{10626} = \frac{10}{1771}

3. Calculate the probability of drawing 4 discs of completely different colours ($X=4$).

To get X=4X=4, we must pick exactly 11 disc from each of the 44 colours.

P(X=4)=(61)410626=129610626=2161771\mathrm{P}(X=4) = \frac{\binom{6}{1}^4}{10626} = \frac{1296}{10626} = \frac{216}{1771}

4. Calculate the remaining probability ($X=3$) and compile the probability distribution table.

Since the sum of all probabilities must equal 11, we can use the complement method along with the value of P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(X=2) given in part (a).

P(X=3)=1−P(X=1)−P(X=2)−P(X=4)\mathrm{P}(X=3) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(X=1) - \mathrm{P}(X=2) - \mathrm{P}(X=4) P(X=3)=1−101771−4651771−2161771=10801771\mathrm{P}(X=3) = 1 - \frac{10}{1771} - \frac{465}{1771} - \frac{216}{1771} = \frac{1080}{1771}

(Alternatively, P(X=3)=(41)(62)×(32)(61)210626=10801771\mathrm{P}(X=3) = \frac{\binom{4}{1}\binom{6}{2} \times \binom{3}{2}\binom{6}{1}^2}{10626} = \frac{1080}{1771})

The probability distribution table is:

x1234P(X=x)1017714651771108017712161771\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline \mathrm{P}(X=x) & \frac{10}{1771} & \frac{465}{1771} & \frac{1080}{1771} & \frac{216}{1771} \\ \hline \end{array}
Answer
x1234P(X=x)1017714651771108017712161771\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline \mathrm{P}(X=x) & \frac{10}{1771} & \frac{465}{1771} & \frac{1080}{1771} & \frac{216}{1771} \\ \hline \end{array}

8(c)

1. Find the probability of winning a single round.

From part (b), the probability of getting exactly 1 colour (X=1X=1) is:
P(X=1)=4×(64)(244)=6010626=101771\mathrm{P}(X=1) = \frac{4 \times \binom{6}{4}}{\binom{24}{4}} = \frac{60}{10626} = \frac{10}{1771}

For Joe to win a round, he must obtain at most 2 different colours (X≤2X \le 2). Using the given P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(X=2) from part (a):
P(win)=P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(\text{win}) = \mathrm{P}(X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X=1) + \mathrm{P}(X=2)
P(win)=101771+4651771=4751771\mathrm{P}(\text{win}) = \frac{10}{1771} + \frac{465}{1771} = \frac{475}{1771}

2. Determine the minimum number of winning rounds required to win money overall.

Let WW be the number of winning rounds out of 8. We model this as W∼B(8,4751771)W \sim \mathrm{B}\left(8, \frac{475}{1771}\right).

For Joe to win some money, his total net winnings must be strictly positive:
10W−5(8−W)>010W - 5(8 - W) > 0
15W−40>015W - 40 > 0
W>4015≈2.67W > \frac{40}{15} \approx 2.67

Thus, Joe must win at least 3 rounds (W≥3W \ge 3).

3. Calculate the probability of Joe winning money at the end of the game.

We need to find P(W≥3)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3):
P(W≥3)=1−P(W≤2)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(W \le 2)

Using a graphing calculator's binomial CDF function:
P(W≥3)=1−0.6337005\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) = 1 - 0.6337005
P(W≥3)≈0.366 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 3) \approx 0.366 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.3660.366

8(d)

1. Find the probability of winning a single round ($P(X \le 2)$).

From part (b), the probability of getting 1 colour is P(X=1)=4×(64)(244)=101771P(X = 1) = \frac{4 \times \binom{6}{4}}{\binom{24}{4}} = \frac{10}{1771}.

The probability of winning a round (getting at most 2 colours) is P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)=101771+4651771=4751771P(X \le 2) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) = \frac{10}{1771} + \frac{465}{1771} = \frac{475}{1771}.

2. Calculate the expected winnings in a single round.

Let WW be the winnings in a single round.
E(W)=$10×P(X≤2)−$5×P(X>2)E(W) = \char36{}10 \times P(X \le 2) - \char36{}5 \times P(X > 2)

E(W)=10(4751771)−5(1−4751771)E(W) = 10 \left(\frac{475}{1771}\right) - 5 \left(1 - \frac{475}{1771}\right)
E(W)=47501771−5(12961771)=−17301771≈−$0.9768E(W) = \frac{4750}{1771} - 5 \left(\frac{1296}{1771}\right) = -\frac{1730}{1771} \approx -\char36{}0.9768

3. Determine the expected winnings for the whole game and conclude.

For the game of 8 rounds, the expected total winnings is 8×E(W)=8(−17301771)=−138401771≈−$7.818 \times E(W) = 8 \left(-\frac{1730}{1771}\right) = -\frac{13840}{1771} \approx -\char36{}7.81.

Since the expected total winnings is negative (an expected loss), it is not worthwhile for Joe to play this game.

Answer

No, it is not worthwhile because the expected total winnings for the 8-round game is negative (≈−$7.81\approx -\char36{}7.81).

AI analysis — may contain mistakes.

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