Tim 是一所学生人数众多的学校的学生。作为其课题的一部分,Tim 想要采访他的一些同学,以获取有关学校的一些反馈。

  1. (a)

    假设学校在一年级和二年级有相同数量的学生,且每个年级的男生和女生人数相等。如果 Tim 想要采访该校的 80 名学生,解释他应该如何选择这 80 名学生,以便获得一个公平且具有代表性的样本。

  2. (b)

    在学校里,Tim 偶然听到一群老师声称该校学生每天平均花 3 小时做家庭作业。Tim 认为学生们在家庭作业上花费了更多的时间。Tim 采访了随机选取的 80 名学生,并将这些学生每天花在家庭作业上的时间(xx 小时)总结如下。

    ∑(x−3)=16 and ∑(x−3)2=164.\sum(x-3)=16 \text{ and } \sum(x-3)^2=164.

    解释为什么 Tim 应该进行单侧检验。

  3. (c)

    计算总体均值和方差的无偏估计。

  4. (d)

    在合适的显著性水平下进行假设检验,以确定 Tim 的想法是否准确。

  5. (e)

    Tim 采访了另一个由 10 名学生组成的随机样本,发现这 10 名学生每天花在家庭作业上的平均时间为 3.2 小时。你可以假设每天花在家庭作业上的时间的总体标准差已知为 σ\sigma 小时。已知教师的声称在 2% 的显著性水平下使用双侧假设检验被拒绝,求 σ\sigma 的取值范围。
    在你的解题过程中,清楚地写出使计算有效所需的一个假设。

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完整解法

9(a)

1. Identify the relevant strata in the population based on the demographics provided.

The population can be divided into 2×2=42 \times 2 = 4 equal strata: Year 1 males, Year 1 females, Year 2 males, and Year 2 females.

2. Determine the sample size for each stratum and state the sampling method within each.

Since the 4 strata are of equal size and the total sample size is 80, Tim should obtain a simple random sample of 804=20\frac{80}{4} = 20 students from each stratum.

答案

Tim should use stratified sampling by dividing the student population into 4 groups (strata): Year 1 males, Year 1 females, Year 2 males, and Year 2 females. He should then randomly select 20 students from each group.

9(b)

1. Explain the choice of a one-tailed test based on the context.

The problem states that "Tim believes that students are spending more time on their homework." This corresponds to a directional alternative hypothesis (H1:μ>3H_1: \mu > 3), meaning he is only interested in whether the mean has increased, which justifies a one-tailed test.

答案

Tim believes that students are spending more time on their homework. Thus, he is testing if the population mean is strictly greater than 3 hours (H1:μ>3H_1: \mu > 3), which requires a one-tailed test.

9(c)

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.

xˉ=c+∑(x−c)n\bar{x} = c + \frac{\sum (x-c)}{n}
xˉ=3+1680=3.2\bar{x} = 3 + \frac{16}{80} = 3.2

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.

s2=1n−1(∑(x−c)2−(∑(x−c))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum (x-c)^2 - \frac{(\sum (x-c))^2}{n} \right)
s2=180−1(164−16280)s^2 = \frac{1}{80-1} \left( 164 - \frac{16^2}{80} \right)
s2=179(164−3.2)s^2 = \frac{1}{79} (164 - 3.2)
s2=160.879≈2.0354≈2.04 (to 3 s.f.)s^2 = \frac{160.8}{79} \approx 2.0354 \approx 2.04 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

Mean =3.2= 3.2, Variance ≈2.04\approx 2.04

9(d)

1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses, and set a suitable level of significance.

Let μ\mu be the population mean time (in hours) students spend on homework each day.

H0:μ=3H_0: \mu = 3
H1:μ>3H_1: \mu > 3

Let the level of significance be α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 (or 5%5\%).

2. State the test distribution and test statistic.

Since the sample size n=80n = 80 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed.

Under H0H_0, the test statistic is Z=Xˉ−3S/80∼N(0,1)Z = \frac{\bar{X} - 3}{S/\sqrt{80}} \sim N(0, 1) approximately.

3. Calculate the $p$-value using the unbiased estimates from part (c).

From part (c), xˉ=3.2\bar{x} = 3.2 and s2=160.879≈2.0354s^2 = \frac{160.8}{79} \approx 2.0354.

Using the 1-tail Z-test on a graphing calculator with μ0=3\mu_0 = 3, xˉ=3.2\bar{x} = 3.2, s=160.879s = \sqrt{\frac{160.8}{79}} and n=80n = 80:

Test statistic z≈1.2538z \approx 1.2538
p-value=0.10495⋯≈0.105p\text{-value} = 0.10495 \dots \approx 0.105 (to 3 s.f.)

4. Conclude the test in the context of the question.

Since the p-value=0.105>0.05p\text{-value} = 0.105 > 0.05, we do not reject H0H_0.

There is insufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level of significance to conclude that students spend more than 33 hours each day on their homework.
Therefore, Tim's belief is not accurate.

答案

Do not reject H0H_0. There is insufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level of significance to conclude that students spend more than 3 hours each day on their homework. Hence, Tim's belief is not accurate.

9(e)

1. State the necessary assumption for a small sample hypothesis test

Assumption: The time spent each day on homework by the students follows a normal distribution.

2. Determine the critical value and state the test statistic for the hypothesis test

For a two-tail test at the 2%2\% level of significance, the critical value is z=2.3263z = 2.3263.
The test statistic under H0:μ=3H_0 : \mu = 3 is given by Z=xˉ−μσ/nZ = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{\sigma / \sqrt{n}}.
Substituting the given values:
Z=3.2−3σ/10=0.210σZ = \frac{3.2 - 3}{\sigma / \sqrt{10}} = \frac{0.2\sqrt{10}}{\sigma}

3. Set up and solve the inequality for the rejection region to find the range of $\sigma$

Since the null hypothesis is rejected and xˉ>μ\bar{x} > \mu, the test statistic must lie in the upper critical region:
0.210σ>2.3263\frac{0.2\sqrt{10}}{\sigma} > 2.3263
σ<0.2102.3263\sigma < \frac{0.2\sqrt{10}}{2.3263}
σ<0.27187\sigma < 0.27187
Since the standard deviation must be strictly positive:
0<σ<0.272 (to 3 s.f.)0 < \sigma < 0.272 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0<σ<0.2720 < \sigma < 0.272 (to 3 s.f.)

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