在本题中,你应该写出你所使用的任何正态分布的参数。 加油站(站点 AA)发现其日销售量(以升为单位)服从均值为 5400、标准差为 240 的正态分布。 另一个加油站(站点 BB)的日销售量服从均值为 6200 升、标准差为 ss 升的正态分布。

  1. (i)

    绘制站点 AA 每日汽油销售量在 4500 升至 6300 升之间的分布示意图。

  2. (ii)

    求一年(365 天)中,站点 AA 的每日汽油销售量超过 5950 升的期望天数。

  3. (iii)

    求在随机选择 of 6 天中,站点 AA 的每日汽油总销售量小于 32000 升的概率。

  4. (iv)

    在随机选择的一天中,站点 BB 的每日汽油销售量超过 5000 升的概率为 0.99。求 ss 的值。

  5. (v)

    求在随机选择的一天中,站点 BB 的每日汽油销售量比站点 AA 的一半至少多 2000 升的概率。写出计算所需的一个假设。

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完整解法

12(i)

1. Identify the key parameters and coordinates for the curve

Let XX be the daily sales at Station AA.
X∼N(5400,2402)X \sim \mathrm{N}(5400, 240^2)
Mean, μ=5400\mu = 5400
Standard deviation, σ=240\sigma = 240
The distribution curve is symmetrical and peaks at the mean, x=5400x = 5400.
The extremities of the required range are 45004500 and 63006300.
Observe that 5400−4500=900=3.75σ5400 - 4500 = 900 = 3.75\sigma and 6300−5400=900=3.75σ6300 - 5400 = 900 = 3.75\sigma.

2. State the necessary features to be shown on the sketch

Since the bounds 45004500 and 63006300 are 3.753.75 standard deviations away from the mean, the curve will be practically touching the xx-axis at these points.
The sketch must show:

  • A bell-shaped curve above the horizontal axis.
  • Line of symmetry at x=5400x = 5400 (with the peak explicitly labelled).
  • The xx-axis marked with the values 45004500, 54005400, and 63006300.
答案

A symmetrical bell-shaped curve peaking at x=5400x = 5400, extending from 45004500 to 63006300, where it asymptotically approaches the horizontal axis.

12(ii)

1. State the distribution of daily sales at Station A and find the probability that it exceeds 5950 litres.

Let AA be the daily sales, in litres, of petrol at Station A.
A∼N(5400,2402)A \sim \mathrm{N}(5400, 240^2)
P(A>5950)=0.0109599\mathrm{P}(A > 5950) = 0.0109599

2. Calculate the expected number of days in a 365-day year.

Expected number of days=365×P(A>5950)\text{Expected number of days} = 365 \times \mathrm{P}(A > 5950)
=365×0.0109599= 365 \times 0.0109599
=4.00037= 4.00037
≈4.00\approx 4.00 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

4.004.00 days (or 44 days)

12(iii)

1. Define the random variable for the total sales over 6 days and find its normal distribution parameters.

Let XX be the daily sales at Station AA. We are given X∼N(5400,2402)X \sim \mathrm{N}(5400, 240^2).
Let T=X1+X2+X3+X4+X5+X6T = X_1 + X_2 + X_3 + X_4 + X_5 + X_6 be the total sales on 6 randomly chosen days.
E(T)=6×5400=32400\mathrm{E}(T) = 6 \times 5400 = 32400
Var(T)=6×2402=345600\mathrm{Var}(T) = 6 \times 240^2 = 345600
Hence, T∼N(32400,345600)T \sim \mathrm{N}(32400, 345600).

2. Calculate the probability that the total sales are less than 32000 litres.

P(T<32000)≈0.24812\mathrm{P}(T < 32000) \approx 0.24812
P(T<32000)=0.248\mathrm{P}(T < 32000) = 0.248 (to 3 s.f.)

答案

0.2480.248

12(iv)

1. Set up the probability equation using the given information.

Let YY be the daily sales at Station BB. We are given Y∼N(6200,s2)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(6200, s^2).
P(Y>5000)=0.99\mathrm{P}(Y > 5000) = 0.99

2. Standardise the variable and find the corresponding $z$-value.

P(Z>5000−6200s)=0.99\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{5000 - 6200}{s}\right) = 0.99
P(Z<−1200s)=0.01\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{-1200}{s}\right) = 0.01
Using the inverse standard normal distribution:
−1200s=−2.3263\frac{-1200}{s} = -2.3263

3. Solve for the standard deviation $s$.

s=−1200−2.3263s = \frac{-1200}{-2.3263}
s=515.84s = 515.84
s≈516 (to 3 s.f.)s \approx 516 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

s=516s = 516 (to 3 s.f.)

12(v)

1. Determine the standard deviation $s$ for Station $B$ using information from part (iv).

From part (iv), we are given P(B>5000)=0.99\mathrm{P}(B > 5000) = 0.99.
Standardising the variable:
P(Z>5000−6200s)=0.99\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{5000 - 6200}{s}\right) = 0.99
−1200s=Φ−1(0.01)≈−2.32635\frac{-1200}{s} = \Phi^{-1}(0.01) \approx -2.32635
s=−1200−2.32635≈515.83s = \frac{-1200}{-2.32635} \approx 515.83

2. Formulate the linear combination representing the condition, state the necessary assumption, and find its mean and variance.

Let W=B−0.5AW = B - 0.5A. We want to find the probability that W≥2000W \ge 2000.
For the variance of the sum to be the sum of the variances, we must assume that the daily sales at Station AA and Station BB are independent.
E(W)=E(B)−0.5E(A)=6200−0.5(5400)=3500\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(B) - 0.5\mathrm{E}(A) = 6200 - 0.5(5400) = 3500
Var(W)=Var(B)+0.52Var(A)\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(B) + 0.5^2\mathrm{Var}(A)
Var(W)≈515.832+0.25(2402)≈266080.5+14400=280480.5\mathrm{Var}(W) \approx 515.83^2 + 0.25(240^2) \approx 266080.5 + 14400 = 280480.5
Thus, W∼N(3500,280480.5)W \sim \mathrm{N}(3500, 280480.5).

3. Calculate the probability that Station $B$ sales exceed half of Station $A$ by at least 2000 litres.

P(B>0.5A+2000)=P(W≥2000)\mathrm{P}(B > 0.5A + 2000) = \mathrm{P}(W \ge 2000)
Using the normal distribution on a graphing calculator:
P(W≥2000)≈0.99769≈0.998 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 2000) \approx 0.99769 \approx 0.998 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.9980.998
Assumption: The daily sales of petrol at Station AA and Station BB are independent.

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