下表显示了一所私立学校中学习化学、物理和生物的男女学生人数。
化学物理生物
男生20013070
女生25030050
随机选择其中一名学生。事件 CC、 BB 和 MM 定义如下: CC:所选学生学习化学。 BB:所选学生学习生物。 MM:所选学生为男生。

  1. (i)

    求 P(C∣M)\text{P}(C|M),

  2. (ii)

    求 P(M∪C)\text{P}(M \cup C),

  3. (iii)

    求 P(M′∩B′)\text{P}(M' \cap B')。

  4. (iv)

    判断 CC 和 MM 是否独立。

  5. (v)

    已知有 20% 的化学学生、30% 的物理学生和 5% 的生物学生是国际学生。

    随机选择的一名学生是国际学生。这名学生学习化学的概率是多少?

  6. (vi)

    随机选择三名学生。求其中恰好有一名学习物理的国际学生的概率。

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完整解法

6(i)

1. Determine the total number of male students

Total male students =200+130+70=400\text{Total male students } = 200 + 130 + 70 = 400

2. Calculate the conditional probability P(C|M)

P(C∣M)=n(C∩M)n(M)=200400=12\text{P}(C|M) = \frac{n(C \cap M)}{n(M)} = \frac{200}{400} = \frac{1}{2}

答案

12\frac{1}{2}

6(ii)

1. Calculate the total number of students in the school

Total students=200+130+70+250+300+50=1000\text{Total students} = 200 + 130 + 70 + 250 + 300 + 50 = 1000

2. Find the number of students who are male or studying Chemistry, and calculate the probability

The number of students who are male or studying Chemistry is the sum of all males plus the females studying Chemistry:
n(M∪C)=400+250=650n(M \cup C) = 400 + 250 = 650
P(M∪C)=6501000=1320\text{P}(M \cup C) = \frac{650}{1000} = \frac{13}{20}

答案

1320\frac{13}{20}

6(iii)

1. Determine the number of students who are both female ($M'$) and not studying Biology ($B'$)

M′M' represents female students and B′B' represents students who do not study Biology (i.e. study Chemistry or Physics).

Number of students in M′∩B′=250 (Female, Chem)+300 (Female, Physics)=550\text{Number of students in } M' \cap B' = 250 \text{ (Female, Chem)} + 300 \text{ (Female, Physics)} = 550

2. Calculate the probability

Total number of students=200+130+70+250+300+50=1000\text{Total number of students} = 200+130+70+250+300+50 = 1000

P(M′∩B′)=5501000=1120 (or 0.55)\text{P}(M' \cap B') = \frac{550}{1000} = \frac{11}{20} \text{ (or } 0.55)

答案

1120\frac{11}{20}

6(iv)

1. Calculate the individual probabilities of events $C$, $M$, and their intersection $C \cap M$.

Total number of students =400 (males)+600 (females)=1000= 400 \text{ (males)} + 600 \text{ (females)} = 1000.
Total studying Chemistry =200 (males)+250 (females)=450= 200 \text{ (males)} + 250 \text{ (females)} = 450.

P(C)=4501000=0.45\text{P}(C) = \frac{450}{1000} = 0.45
P(M)=4001000=0.4\text{P}(M) = \frac{400}{1000} = 0.4
P(C∩M)=2001000=0.2\text{P}(C \cap M) = \frac{200}{1000} = 0.2

2. Test the condition for independence and conclude.

P(C)×P(M)=0.45×0.4=0.18\text{P}(C) \times \text{P}(M) = 0.45 \times 0.4 = 0.18

Since P(C∩M)≠P(C)×P(M)\text{P}(C \cap M) \neq \text{P}(C) \times \text{P}(M) (as 0.2≠0.180.2 \neq 0.18), the events CC and MM are not independent.

答案

Since P(C∩M)≠P(C)×P(M)\text{P}(C \cap M) \neq \text{P}(C) \times \text{P}(M), the events CC and MM are not independent.

6(v)

1. Calculate the total number of students taking each subject.

n(Chemistry)=200+250=450n(\text{Chemistry}) = 200 + 250 = 450
n(Physics)=130+300=430n(\text{Physics}) = 130 + 300 = 430
n(Biology)=70+50=120n(\text{Biology}) = 70 + 50 = 120

2. Calculate the number of international students in each subject and find the overall total.

n(Int. Chemistry)=0.20×450=90n(\text{Int. Chemistry}) = 0.20 \times 450 = 90
n(Int. Physics)=0.30×430=129n(\text{Int. Physics}) = 0.30 \times 430 = 129
n(Int. Biology)=0.05×120=6n(\text{Int. Biology}) = 0.05 \times 120 = 6
Total Int. Students=90+129+6=225\text{Total Int. Students} = 90 + 129 + 6 = 225

3. Calculate the conditional probability that the student studies Chemistry given they are an international student.

P(Chemistry∣Int.)=n(Int. Chemistry)n(Total Int. Students)\text{P}(\text{Chemistry} \mid \text{Int.}) = \frac{n(\text{Int. Chemistry})}{n(\text{Total Int. Students})}
=90225= \frac{90}{225}
=25= \frac{2}{5}

答案

25\frac{2}{5}

6(vi)

1. Find the number of international students studying Physics and the total number of students.

Total number of students =200+250+130+300+70+50=1000= 200 + 250 + 130 + 300 + 70 + 50 = 1000
Total number of Physics students =130+300=430= 130 + 300 = 430
Number of international Physics students =0.30×430=129= 0.30 \times 430 = 129

2. Calculate the probability of choosing exactly one international Physics student out of three.

Number of students who are NOT international Physics students =1000−129=871= 1000 - 129 = 871

The probability of choosing exactly one such student in three draws (without replacement) requires accounting for the 3 different possible orders (e.g., Yes-No-No, No-Yes-No, No-No-Yes):
P(exactly 1)=3×(1291000×871999×870998)\text{P(exactly 1)} = 3 \times \left( \frac{129}{1000} \times \frac{871}{999} \times \frac{870}{998} \right)
=48876165166167000≈0.29414≈0.294 (to 3 s.f.)= \frac{48876165}{166167000} \approx 0.29414 \approx 0.294 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.2940.294

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