一个由25名学生组成的班级有15名女生和10名男生。学年初,将随机挑选4名学生组成临时班委会,包括“主席”、“副主席”、“财务”和“秘书”。求:

  1. (i)

    恰好选中两名女生的概率,

  2. (ii)

    “主席”和“副主席”为异性的概率,

  3. (iii)

    在“财务”和“秘书”为异性的条件下,“主席”和“副主席”均为男生的概率。

  4. 说明并给出理由,事件“主席和副主席均为男生”与“财务和秘书为异性”是否相互独立。

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完整解法

10(i)

1. Set up the expression for the probability using combinations.

P(exactly 2 girls)=15C2×10C225C4P(\text{exactly 2 girls}) = \frac{{}^{15}C_2 \times {}^{10}C_2}{{}^{25}C_4}

2. Evaluate the combinations to find the final probability.

=105×4512650=472512650=189506 = \frac{105 \times 45}{12650} \\ = \frac{4725}{12650} \\ = \frac{189}{506}
答案

189506\frac{189}{506}

10(ii)

1. Calculate the probability of choosing a girl as Chairperson and a boy as Vice-Chairperson.

P(Girl then Boy)=1525×1024=14P(\text{Girl then Boy}) = \frac{15}{25} \times \frac{10}{24} = \frac{1}{4}

2. Calculate the probability of choosing a boy as Chairperson and a girl as Vice-Chairperson, and sum the probabilities to find the final answer.

P(Boy then Girl)=1025×1524=14P(\text{Boy then Girl}) = \frac{10}{25} \times \frac{15}{24} = \frac{1}{4}

P(Opposite sex)=P(Girl then Boy)+P(Boy then Girl)P(\text{Opposite sex}) = P(\text{Girl then Boy}) + P(\text{Boy then Girl})
P(Opposite sex)=14+14=12P(\text{Opposite sex}) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{1}{2}

答案

12\frac{1}{2}

10(iii)

1. Identify the reduced pool of available students given the condition.

The condition states that the Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex. This means exactly 11 boy and 11 girl have been chosen from the class for these two specific roles.

Remaining total pupils =25−2=23= 25 - 2 = 23
Remaining boys =10−1=9= 10 - 1 = 9
Remaining girls =15−1=14= 15 - 1 = 14

2. Set up the probability expression for choosing two boys from the remaining pool.

We need to find the probability that the remaining two roles (Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson) are filled by boys. Since the slots are filled uniformly at random, this is equivalent to drawing 22 boys from the remaining pool of 2323 students without replacement.

P(both are boys∣condition)=923×822P(\text{both are boys} \mid \text{condition}) = \frac{9}{23} \times \frac{8}{22}

3. Simplify the probability to obtain the final fraction.

P(both are boys∣condition)=923×411=36253P(\text{both are boys} \mid \text{condition}) = \frac{9}{23} \times \frac{4}{11} = \frac{36}{253}

答案

36253\frac{36}{253}

10[3]

1. Calculate the conditional probability $P(A|B)$ as required from part (iii).

Let AA be the event 'Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson are both boys'.
Let BB be the event 'Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex'.
By symmetry, the unconditional probability of BB depends only on the two positions:
P(B)=P(T is boy, S is girl)+P(T is girl, S is boy)P(B) = P(\text{T is boy, S is girl}) + P(\text{T is girl, S is boy})
P(B)=(1025×1524)+(1525×1024)=12P(B) = \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{15}{24}\right) + \left(\frac{15}{25} \times \frac{10}{24}\right) = \frac{1}{2}

To find P(A∣B)P(A|B), we first find P(A∩B)P(A \cap B), which requires C and VC to be boys, and T and S to be of opposite sex:
P(A∩B)=P(B, B, B, G)+P(B, B, G, B)P(A \cap B) = P(\text{B, B, B, G}) + P(\text{B, B, G, B})
P(A∩B)=(1025×924×823×1522)+(1025×924×1523×822)=18253P(A \cap B) = \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} \times \frac{8}{23} \times \frac{15}{22}\right) + \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} \times \frac{15}{23} \times \frac{8}{22}\right) = \frac{18}{253}

From (iii), the conditional probability is:
P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=18/2531/2=36253P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{18/253}{1/2} = \frac{36}{253}

2. Calculate the unconditional probability $P(A)$ and compare it with $P(A|B)$ to check for independence.

The unconditional probability of event AA is:
P(A)=P(C is boy)×P(VC is boy)=1025×924=320P(A) = P(\text{C is boy}) \times P(\text{VC is boy}) = \frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} = \frac{3}{20}

For events AA and BB to be independent, the condition P(A∣B)=P(A)P(A|B) = P(A) must hold.
Since 36253≠320\frac{36}{253} \neq \frac{3}{20} (or roughly 0.142≠0.1500.142 \neq 0.150), P(A∣B)≠P(A)P(A|B) \neq P(A).
Thus, the events are not independent.

答案

Not independent, since P(A∣B)=36253≠320=P(A)P(A|B) = \frac{36}{253} \neq \frac{3}{20} = P(A), where AA and BB are the respective events.

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