A class of twenty-five pupils consists of 15 girls and 10 boys. At the beginning of the year four pupils are to be chosen at random to form an interim class committee comprising of "Chairperson", "Vice-Chairperson", "Treasurer" and "Secretary". Find

  1. (i)

    the probability that exactly two girls are chosen,

  2. (ii)

    the probability that the Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson are of opposite sex,

  3. (iii)

    the probability that the Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson are both boys given that the Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex.

  4. State with a reason whether or not the events 'Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson are both boys' and 'Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex' are independent.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Set up the expression for the probability using combinations.

P(exactly 2 girls)=15C2×10C225C4P(\text{exactly 2 girls}) = \frac{{}^{15}C_2 \times {}^{10}C_2}{{}^{25}C_4}

2. Evaluate the combinations to find the final probability.

=105×4512650=472512650=189506 = \frac{105 \times 45}{12650} \\ = \frac{4725}{12650} \\ = \frac{189}{506}
Answer

189506\frac{189}{506}

10(ii)

1. Calculate the probability of choosing a girl as Chairperson and a boy as Vice-Chairperson.

P(Girl then Boy)=1525×1024=14P(\text{Girl then Boy}) = \frac{15}{25} \times \frac{10}{24} = \frac{1}{4}

2. Calculate the probability of choosing a boy as Chairperson and a girl as Vice-Chairperson, and sum the probabilities to find the final answer.

P(Boy then Girl)=1025×1524=14P(\text{Boy then Girl}) = \frac{10}{25} \times \frac{15}{24} = \frac{1}{4}

P(Opposite sex)=P(Girl then Boy)+P(Boy then Girl)P(\text{Opposite sex}) = P(\text{Girl then Boy}) + P(\text{Boy then Girl})
P(Opposite sex)=14+14=12P(\text{Opposite sex}) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{1}{2}

Answer

12\frac{1}{2}

10(iii)

1. Identify the reduced pool of available students given the condition.

The condition states that the Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex. This means exactly 11 boy and 11 girl have been chosen from the class for these two specific roles.

Remaining total pupils =25−2=23= 25 - 2 = 23
Remaining boys =10−1=9= 10 - 1 = 9
Remaining girls =15−1=14= 15 - 1 = 14

2. Set up the probability expression for choosing two boys from the remaining pool.

We need to find the probability that the remaining two roles (Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson) are filled by boys. Since the slots are filled uniformly at random, this is equivalent to drawing 22 boys from the remaining pool of 2323 students without replacement.

P(both are boys∣condition)=923×822P(\text{both are boys} \mid \text{condition}) = \frac{9}{23} \times \frac{8}{22}

3. Simplify the probability to obtain the final fraction.

P(both are boys∣condition)=923×411=36253P(\text{both are boys} \mid \text{condition}) = \frac{9}{23} \times \frac{4}{11} = \frac{36}{253}

Answer

36253\frac{36}{253}

10[3]

1. Calculate the conditional probability $P(A|B)$ as required from part (iii).

Let AA be the event 'Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson are both boys'.
Let BB be the event 'Treasurer and Secretary are of opposite sex'.
By symmetry, the unconditional probability of BB depends only on the two positions:
P(B)=P(T is boy, S is girl)+P(T is girl, S is boy)P(B) = P(\text{T is boy, S is girl}) + P(\text{T is girl, S is boy})
P(B)=(1025×1524)+(1525×1024)=12P(B) = \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{15}{24}\right) + \left(\frac{15}{25} \times \frac{10}{24}\right) = \frac{1}{2}

To find P(A∣B)P(A|B), we first find P(A∩B)P(A \cap B), which requires C and VC to be boys, and T and S to be of opposite sex:
P(A∩B)=P(B, B, B, G)+P(B, B, G, B)P(A \cap B) = P(\text{B, B, B, G}) + P(\text{B, B, G, B})
P(A∩B)=(1025×924×823×1522)+(1025×924×1523×822)=18253P(A \cap B) = \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} \times \frac{8}{23} \times \frac{15}{22}\right) + \left(\frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} \times \frac{15}{23} \times \frac{8}{22}\right) = \frac{18}{253}

From (iii), the conditional probability is:
P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=18/2531/2=36253P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{18/253}{1/2} = \frac{36}{253}

2. Calculate the unconditional probability $P(A)$ and compare it with $P(A|B)$ to check for independence.

The unconditional probability of event AA is:
P(A)=P(C is boy)×P(VC is boy)=1025×924=320P(A) = P(\text{C is boy}) \times P(\text{VC is boy}) = \frac{10}{25} \times \frac{9}{24} = \frac{3}{20}

For events AA and BB to be independent, the condition P(A∣B)=P(A)P(A|B) = P(A) must hold.
Since 36253≠320\frac{36}{253} \neq \frac{3}{20} (or roughly 0.142≠0.1500.142 \neq 0.150), P(A∣B)≠P(A)P(A|B) \neq P(A).
Thus, the events are not independent.

Answer

Not independent, since P(A∣B)=36253≠320=P(A)P(A|B) = \frac{36}{253} \neq \frac{3}{20} = P(A), where AA and BB are the respective events.

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