一位教师顾老师怀疑,学生每天使用手机的平均时间为 μ0\mu_0 分钟。他随机抽取了该校 97 名拥有手机的学生,并记录了每位学生在随机选择的一天中玩手机的时间。结果如下表所示。
每天所花时间(精确到分钟)60657290110180
人数11203218106

  1. (i)

    计算学生每天使用手机时间的总体均值和方差的无偏估计。

  2. (ii)

    在 5% 的显著性水平下,对“学生每天使用手机的平均时间为 μ0\mu_0 分钟”的原假设进行检验,备择假设为“学生每天使用手机的平均时间不等于 μ0\mu_0 分钟”。

    确定拒绝原假设时 μ0\mu_0 的取值范围。

  3. (iii)

    结合本题背景,解释“在 5% 的显著性水平下”的含义。

  4. (iv)

    如果在 (ii) 中在 5% 的显著性水平下拒绝了原假设,那么我们是否可以在 1% 的显著性水平下拒绝该原假设?解释你的答案。

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完整解法

8(i)

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.

From the frequency table, we can compute the total number of students (nn), ∑fx\sum fx, and ∑fx2\sum fx^2:
n=11+20+32+18+10+6=97n = 11 + 20 + 32 + 18 + 10 + 6 = 97
∑fx=11(60)+20(65)+32(72)+18(90)+10(110)+6(180)=8064\sum fx = 11(60) + 20(65) + 32(72) + 18(90) + 10(110) + 6(180) = 8064

xˉ=∑fxn=806497≈83.1 (to 3 s.f.)\bar{x} = \frac{\sum fx}{n} = \frac{8064}{97} \approx 83.1 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.

Calculate the sum of squares, ∑fx2\sum fx^2:
∑fx2=11(602)+20(652)+32(722)+18(902)+10(1102)+6(1802)=751188\sum fx^2 = 11(60^2) + 20(65^2) + 32(72^2) + 18(90^2) + 10(110^2) + 6(180^2) = 751188

s2=1n−1(∑fx2−(∑fx)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum fx^2 - \frac{(\sum fx)^2}{n} \right)
s2=196(751188−8064297)s^2 = \frac{1}{96} \left( 751188 - \frac{8064^2}{97} \right)
s2=653095776≈842 (to 3 s.f.)s^2 = \frac{653095}{776} \approx 842 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

Unbiased estimate of mean =83.1= 83.1 minutes
Unbiased estimate of variance =842 minutes2= 842 \text{ minutes}^2

8(ii)

1. Calculate the sample mean ($\bar{x}$) and unbiased estimate of the population variance ($s^2$) as required from part (i).

∑x=11(60)+20(65)+32(72)+18(90)+10(110)+6(180)=8064\sum x = 11(60) + 20(65) + 32(72) + 18(90) + 10(110) + 6(180) = 8064

∑x2=11(602)+20(652)+32(722)+18(902)+10(1102)+6(1802)=751188\sum x^2 = 11(60^2) + 20(65^2) + 32(72^2) + 18(90^2) + 10(110^2) + 6(180^2) = 751188

xˉ=806497≈83.1340\bar{x} = \frac{8064}{97} \approx 83.1340

s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)=196(751188−8064297)≈841.6035s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n} \right) = \frac{1}{96} \left( 751188 - \frac{8064^2}{97} \right) \approx 841.6035

2. Formulate the test statistic and state the rejection criteria for a two-tailed test at the 5% significance level.

H0:μ=μ0H_0: \mu = \mu_0
H1:μ≠μ0H_1: \mu \neq \mu_0

Since n=97≥30n = 97 \ge 30, by the Central Limit Theorem, Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed.
The standardized test statistic is:
Z=Xˉ−μ0s/n∼N(0,1) approximatelyZ = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}} \sim N(0, 1) \text{ approximately}

For a two-tailed test at the 5% level of significance, the critical value is z0.025≈1.960z_{0.025} \approx 1.960.
We reject H0H_0 if Z≤−1.960Z \le -1.960 or Z≥1.960Z \ge 1.960.

3. Substitute the calculated values and solve the inequalities to find the range of $\mu_0$.

83.1340−μ0841.6035/97≤−1.960or83.1340−μ0841.6035/97≥1.960\frac{83.1340 - \mu_0}{\sqrt{841.6035 / 97}} \le -1.960 \quad \text{or} \quad \frac{83.1340 - \mu_0}{\sqrt{841.6035 / 97}} \ge 1.960

83.1340−μ02.9456≤−1.960or83.1340−μ02.9456≥1.960\frac{83.1340 - \mu_0}{2.9456} \le -1.960 \quad \text{or} \quad \frac{83.1340 - \mu_0}{2.9456} \ge 1.960

83.1340−μ0≤−5.773or83.1340−μ0≥5.77383.1340 - \mu_0 \le -5.773 \quad \text{or} \quad 83.1340 - \mu_0 \ge 5.773

μ0≥88.907orμ0≤77.361\mu_0 \ge 88.907 \quad \text{or} \quad \mu_0 \le 77.361

Therefore, to 3 significant figures, H0H_0 is rejected if μ0≤77.4\mu_0 \le 77.4 or μ0≥88.9\mu_0 \ge 88.9.

答案

μ0≤77.4 or μ0≥88.9\mu_0 \le 77.4 \text{ or } \mu_0 \ge 88.9

8(iii)

1. State the meaning of the level of significance (probability of making a Type I error) in the context of the problem.

The level of significance is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. In this context, it means there is a 5%5\% probability of incorrectly concluding that the average time a student spends on his or her mobile phone per day differs from μ0\mu_0 minutes, when the average time is actually μ0\mu_0 minutes.

答案

There is a 5% probability of concluding that the average time a student spends on his or her mobile phone per day differs from μ0\mu_0 minutes, when in fact it is exactly μ0\mu_0 minutes.

8(iv)

1. Relate the rejection of the null hypothesis at the 5% level to the p-value.

Rejecting H0H_0 at the 5% significance level means that the pp-value is less than 0.050.05.

2. Compare with the condition required for the 1% level of significance and state the conclusion.

To reject H0H_0 at the 1% significance level, we would need the pp-value to be strictly less than 0.010.01. Because the pp-value could be in the range 0.01≤p-value<0.050.01 \le p\text{-value} < 0.05, we cannot conclude for certain that H0H_0 will be rejected at the 1% level.

答案

Not necessarily. Rejecting H0H_0 at the 5% significance level implies that the pp-value <0.05< 0.05. Since it is possible that 0.01≤p-value<0.050.01 \le p\text{-value} < 0.05, we cannot be certain that H0H_0 will be rejected at the 1% level of significance.

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