在某厂家生产的一盒芝士圈中,钠的质量 XX 毫克(mg)是一个连续随机变量,其均值为 μ0\mu_0。在改变生产链后,对随机抽取的 15 盒芝士圈进行了分析。各盒中钠的质量(以 mg 为单位)汇总如下: ∑(x−1180)=17.5 ,∑(x−1180)2=190.5\displaystyle \sum (x-1180)=17.5\,,\qquad \displaystyle \sum (x-1180)^2=190.5。

  1. (i)

    已知 μ0=1183\mu_0=1183,在 5% 的显著性水平下,检验一盒芝士圈中钠的平均质量是否发生了变化。你应该清楚地说明在进行检验时需要做出的任何必要假设。

  2. (ii)

    已知一盒芝士圈中钠质量的标准差为 6.8 毫克,若基于同一组数据的检验得出的结论是在 5% 显著性水平下钠的质量有所增加,求 μ0\mu_0 的取值范围。简要解释第 (i) 部分中做出的假设是否仍然必要。

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完整解法

9(i)

1. Calculate the sample mean $\bar{x}$ and the unbiased estimate of the population variance $s^2$.

Let y=x−1180y = x - 1180. Given n=15n = 15, ∑y=17.5\sum y = 17.5 and ∑y2=190.5\sum y^2 = 190.5.

Sample mean,
xˉ=1180+∑yn=1180+17.515=70876≈1181.17\bar{x} = 1180 + \frac{\sum y}{n} = 1180 + \frac{17.5}{15} = \frac{7087}{6} \approx 1181.17 (to 2 d.p.)

Unbiased estimate of population variance,
s2=1n−1(∑y2−(∑y)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1}\left(\sum y^2 - \frac{(\sum y)^2}{n}\right)
s2=114(190.5−17.5215)=2041168≈12.1488s^2 = \frac{1}{14}\left(190.5 - \frac{17.5^2}{15}\right) = \frac{2041}{168} \approx 12.1488

2. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of sodium in a box of cheese rings, in mg.

H0:μ=1183H_0: \mu = 1183
H1:μ≠1183H_1: \mu \neq 1183

Level of significance: 5%5\%

3. State the necessary assumption for the hypothesis test.

Assumption:
Since the sample size (n=15n=15) is small, we must assume that the mass of sodium in a box of cheese rings follows a normal distribution.

4. Identify the test statistic and calculate the p-value using a t-test.

Since the population variance is unknown and nn is small, we use a tt-test.
Under H0H_0, the test statistic is T=Xˉ−1183S/15∼t(14)T = \frac{\bar{X} - 1183}{S/\sqrt{15}} \sim t(14).

Using a graphing calculator with μ0=1183\mu_0 = 1183, xˉ=1181.1667\bar{x} = 1181.1667, sx=2041168≈3.4855s_x = \sqrt{\frac{2041}{168}} \approx 3.4855, and n=15n = 15:

t=−2.037t = -2.037
p-value=0.0611p\text{-value} = 0.0611 (to 3 s.f.)

5. State the conclusion based on the p-value.

Since the p-value=0.0611>0.05p\text{-value} = 0.0611 > 0.05, we do not reject H0H_0.

There is insufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level of significance to conclude that the mean mass of sodium in a box of cheese rings has changed from 1183 mg1183\text{ mg}.

答案

Do not reject H0H_0. There is insufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level to conclude that the mean mass of sodium has changed.

9(ii)

1. Calculate the sample mean $\bar{x}$ from the given summary data.

xˉ=∑(x−1180)15+1180=17.515+1180=118116≈1181.167\bar{x} = \frac{\sum (x-1180)}{15} + 1180 = \frac{17.5}{15} + 1180 = 1181\frac{1}{6} \approx 1181.167

2. Set up the inequality for rejecting $H_0$ in a 1-tailed test.

For the test to conclude that the mass has increased (H1:μ>μ0H_1: \mu > \mu_0) at the 5% significance level, the test statistic ZZ must fall in the critical region Z>1.64485Z > 1.64485.

Z=xˉ−μ0σn>1.64485Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}} > 1.64485

3. Substitute the values and solve for $\mu_0$.

1181.1667−μ06.815>1.64485\frac{1181.1667 - \mu_0}{\frac{6.8}{\sqrt{15}}} > 1.64485
1181.1667−μ01.75573>1.64485\frac{1181.1667 - \mu_0}{1.75573} > 1.64485
1181.1667−μ0>2.88791181.1667 - \mu_0 > 2.8879
μ0<1178.2788\mu_0 < 1178.2788
μ0<1178.3 (to 1 d.p.)\mu_0 < 1178.3 \text{ (to 1 d.p.)}

4. Explain whether the normality assumption from part (i) is still necessary.

Yes, the assumption is still necessary. Since the sample size n=15n = 15 is small (less than 30), the Central Limit Theorem cannot be used to approximate the distribution of the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X}. We must assume the population is normally distributed for the sample mean to follow a normal distribution.

答案

μ0<1178.3\mu_0 < 1178.3
Yes, the assumption is still necessary as the sample size of 1515 is small, so the Central Limit Theorem cannot be applied.

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