一位研究人员正在对一种新栽培品种的土豆进行试验。一块田地里有 20 行新栽培品种的土豆植株,每行有 80 株。研究人员打算挖出 8 株并测量每株植株产出的土豆质量。

  1. (i)

    描述他如何能从单行 80 株植株中抽取一个含有 8 株植株的系统抽样样本,并说明这种抽样方法的优点。

  2. (ii)

    该研究人员声称这种新栽培品种土豆的平均质量至少为 150g。新栽培品种土豆的质量记为 XX 克。80 个新栽培品种土豆随机样本的质量汇总如下:

    ∑(x−150)=−160,∑(x−150)2=5520.\sum(x-150) = -160, \quad \sum(x-150)^2 = 5520.

    计算总体均值和方差的无偏估计。

  3. (iii)

    在 1% 的显著性水平下,检验该研究人员的声称是否有效。

  4. (iv)

    结合本题背景,解释你对“在 1% 的显著性水平下”这一表述的理解。

  5. (v)

    选取的另一个包含 8 个土豆的随机样本,其平均质量为 148.5g,标准差为 kk g。求 kk 的取值范围,使得在 1% 的显著性水平下,该样本会表明研究人员的声称是无效的。

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完整解法

10(i)

1. Calculate the sampling interval and specify the random starting point.

Number the plants in the single row from 11 to 8080.
The sampling interval k=Nn=808=10k = \frac{N}{n} = \frac{80}{8} = 10.
Randomly select a starting integer, rr, between 11 and 1010 inclusive (using a random number generator).

2. Describe how the remaining plants in the sample are selected.

Select the rr-th plant, and then pick every 1010-th plant thereafter. The plants chosen will be those numbered r,r+10,r+20,…,r+70r, r+10, r+20, \dots, r+70.

3. State an advantage of systematic sampling in this context.

An advantage is that the selected plants are evenly spread out across the entire row, which ensures a more representative sample if there are gradual trends in environmental conditions (such as soil fertility or moisture) along the row. Furthermore, it is easier and quicker to conduct physically in the field than simple random sampling.

答案

Number the plants in the row from 11 to 8080. Calculate the sampling interval k=808=10k = \frac{80}{8} = 10. Randomly select an integer rr between 11 and 1010 inclusive using a random number generator. Select the rr-th plant, and then pick every 1010-th plant thereafter (i.e., select the plants numbered r,r+10,r+20,…,r+70r, r+10, r+20, \dots, r+70).

Advantage: The sample is evenly spread out across the row, which ensures the sample is representative and accounts for any gradual variations in the field's conditions (e.g. soil fertility, sunlight) along the row. It is also easier and more practical to implement in the field compared to simple random sampling.

10(ii)

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean using the coded data summary.

Let the unbiased estimate of the population mean be xˉ\bar{x}.
xˉ=a+∑(x−a)n\bar{x} = a + \frac{\sum(x-a)}{n}
Substituting a=150a = 150 and n=80n = 80:
xˉ=150+−16080\bar{x} = 150 + \frac{-160}{80}
xˉ=150−2=148\bar{x} = 150 - 2 = 148

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance using the coded data summary.

Let the unbiased estimate of the population variance be s2s^2.
s2=1n−1(∑(x−a)2−(∑(x−a))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum(x-a)^2 - \frac{(\sum(x-a))^2}{n} \right)
s2=180−1(5520−(−160)280)s^2 = \frac{1}{80-1} \left( 5520 - \frac{(-160)^2}{80} \right)
s2=179(5520−2560080)s^2 = \frac{1}{79} \left( 5520 - \frac{25600}{80} \right)
s2=179(5520−320)s^2 = \frac{1}{79} (5520 - 320)
s2=520079≈65.823s^2 = \frac{5200}{79} \approx 65.823
s2≈65.8 (to 3 s.f.)s^2 \approx 65.8 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

Unbiased estimate of the population mean =148= 148 g
Unbiased estimate of the population variance =65.8= 65.8 g2^2 (to 3 s.f.)

10(iii)

1. State the population parameter and hypotheses

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of the new variety of potato, in grams.
H0:μ=150H_0: \mu = 150
H1:μ<150H_1: \mu < 150

2. Determine the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance (from part ii)

xˉ=150+−16080=148\bar{x} = 150 + \frac{-160}{80} = 148
s2=180−1(5520−(−160)280)=179(5520−320)=520079≈65.823s^2 = \frac{1}{80-1} \left( 5520 - \frac{(-160)^2}{80} \right) = \frac{1}{79}(5520 - 320) = \frac{5200}{79} \approx 65.823

3. Calculate the test statistic and $p$-value

Under H0H_0, since the sample size n=80n = 80 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is approximately normally distributed.
Test statistic, z=xˉ−μ0s/n=148−150520079×80≈−2.205z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}} = \frac{148 - 150}{\sqrt{\frac{5200}{79 \times 80}}} \approx -2.205
Using a GC (Z-Test):
p-value=P(Z<−2.20489)≈0.0137p\text{-value} = P(Z < -2.20489) \approx 0.0137

4. State the statistical conclusion in the context of the question

Since the pp-value =0.0137>0.01= 0.0137 > 0.01, we do not reject H0H_0.
There is insufficient evidence at the 1% significance level to conclude that the population mean mass is less than 150g. Hence, the researcher's claim that the average mass is at least 150g is valid.

答案

H0:μ=150H_0: \mu = 150, H1:μ<150H_1: \mu < 150
p-value=0.0137>0.01p\text{-value} = 0.0137 > 0.01
Do not reject H0H_0. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the population mean mass is less than 150g, so the researcher's claim is valid.

10(iv)

1. State the definition of the significance level in the context of the hypotheses.

The significance level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.

In this context, it means there is a 1% probability of incorrectly concluding that the average mass of the new variety of potato is less than 150g (rejecting H0H_0), when the true average mass is actually 150g (H0H_0 is true).

答案

There is a 1% probability of concluding that the average mass of the new variety of potato is less than 150g, when the true average mass is actually 150g.

10(v)

1. State the hypotheses and identify the appropriate test distribution.

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of the new variety of potato.
H0:μ=150H_0: \mu = 150
H1:μ<150H_1: \mu < 150
Since the sample size n=8n=8 is small and the population variance is unknown, we must assume that the mass of the potatoes is normally distributed to use a tt-test.

2. Express the test statistic $T$ in terms of $k$.

Given the sample standard deviation is kk (i.e. sn=ks_n = k), the unbiased estimate of the population variance is:
s2=nn−1sn2=87k2s^2 = \frac{n}{n-1}s_n^2 = \frac{8}{7}k^2
The test statistic is:
T=xˉ−μs/n=148.5−15087k2/8=−1.5k/7=−1.57kT = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s / \sqrt{n}} = \frac{148.5 - 150}{\sqrt{\frac{8}{7}k^2} / \sqrt{8}} = \frac{-1.5}{k/\sqrt{7}} = -\frac{1.5\sqrt{7}}{k}

3. State the critical region and solve the inequality to find the range of $k$.

For a 1-tailed test at the 1%1\% level of significance with ν=8−1=7\nu = 8 - 1 = 7 degrees of freedom, the critical value is t7,0.01=−2.9979t_{7, 0.01} = -2.9979.
For the sample to indicate that the claim is invalid, we must reject H0H_0, which requires the test statistic to fall in the critical region:
T≤−2.9979T \le -2.9979
−1.57k≤−2.9979-\frac{1.5\sqrt{7}}{k} \le -2.9979
Since kk is a standard deviation, k>0k > 0. Multiplying by kk and dividing by −2.9979-2.9979 (which reverses the inequality sign) gives:
k≤1.572.9979k \le \frac{1.5\sqrt{7}}{2.9979}
k≤1.3238k \le 1.3238
Hence, the range of values for kk is 0<k≤1.320 < k \le 1.32 (to 3 s.f.).

(Note: If kk is interpreted strictly as the unbiased estimate of the standard deviation rather than the sample standard deviation, s=ks=k, leading to T=−1.5k/8≤−2.9979  ⟹  k≤1.42T = \frac{-1.5}{k/\sqrt{8}} \le -2.9979 \implies k \le 1.42.)

答案

0<k≤1.320 < k \le 1.32

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