EastHam 是一家处于竞争激烈联赛中的足球俱乐部。研究发现,EastHam 在比赛中攻入首球的平均时间为 50 分钟。教练试验了一种新的战术,并在该赛季中随机抽取了 35 场比赛,记录了攻入首球所需的时间 (分钟)。结果发现总用时为 1650 分钟,且时间的方差为 。 教练想要检验在实施新战术后,攻入首球的平均用时是否有所减少。
- (a)
解释为什么教练在不对攻入首球用时的分布做出任何假设的情况下,仍能够进行假设检验。
- (b)
求总体均值和方差的无偏估计。保留三位小数。
- (c)
在 10% 的显著性水平下进行检验。你应该陈述你的假设并定义你所使用的任何符号。
- (d)
该联赛中另一家俱乐部 NewPalace 的一位球迷声称,NewPalace 在比赛中攻入首球的平均时间为 40 分钟。可以假设 NewPalace 攻入首球的用时服从正态分布,方差为 。
随机抽取 50 场比赛样本,并对该球迷的声称是否成立进行假设检验。求使得该球迷的声称在 10% 的显著性水平下被拒绝的样本平均时间的取值范围。
它不会直接告诉你答案,而是问你卡在哪一步看看 AI 是怎么陪你一步步弄懂这道题的
完整解法
11(a)
1. State the relevant condition and theorem that justifies the hypothesis test
Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed.
Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal. Hence, no assumption about the population distribution is needed.
11(b)
1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.
2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance using the given sample variance.
The given variance is the biased sample variance (). The unbiased estimate is found by multiplying by :
Unbiased estimate of population mean =
Unbiased estimate of population variance =
11(c)
1. State the hypotheses and define the population mean.
Let be the population mean time taken by EastHam to score their first goal.
2. State the test statistic and its distribution under $H_0$.
Under , since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed. The test statistic is:
3. Calculate the sample statistics and use the graphing calculator to find the $z$-value and $p$-value.
From the given data (and worked in part (b)):
Using a 1-tailed -test on the graphing calculator with , , and :
4. Compare the $p$-value against the significance level and state the conclusion in context.
Level of significance, .
Since , we do not reject .
There is insufficient evidence at the level of significance to conclude that the average time taken by EastHam to score their first goal has decreased with the implementation of the new play tactic.
Since , we do not reject . There is insufficient evidence at the level of significance to conclude that the average time taken to score the first goal has decreased.
11(d)
1. State the hypotheses for the test.
Let be the population mean time taken by NewPalace to score the first goal.
2. Identify the distribution of the sample mean under the null hypothesis.
Under , the sample mean is normally distributed with mean and variance .
3. Determine the critical value and formulate the rejection region in terms of the test statistic.
For a two-tailed test at level of significance, the critical -values are .
We reject if the test statistic falls in the critical region:
4. Solve for the range of values of the sample mean $\bar{x}$.
Substituting the expression for :
To 3 significant figures, the fan's claim would be rejected if .
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