在学校食堂中,30 秒内排队购买面条的人数是一个服从分布 Po(1.5) 的随机变量。

  1. (i)

    求在 5 分钟内,至少有 10 人加入排队的概率。

  2. (ii)

    在 30 秒内离开该队伍的人数是一个服从分布 Po(1.9) 的随机变量。求在 5 分钟内,至少有 10 人离开队伍的概率。(你可以假设队伍中有多于 10 人。)

  3. (iii)

    使用适当的近似方法,求一个有 20 人的队伍在 10 分钟后只剩下 5 人的概率。

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完整解法

9(i)

1. Find the mean number of people joining the queue in a 5-minute period.

A 5-minute period contains 5×6030=10\frac{5 \times 60}{30} = 10 periods of 30 seconds.
The new mean is λ=1.5×10=15\lambda = 1.5 \times 10 = 15.

2. Calculate the probability of at least 10 people joining the queue.

Let XX be the number of people joining the queue in 5 minutes.
X∼Po(15)X \sim \text{Po}(15)
We need to find P(X≥10)P(X \ge 10):
P(X≥10)=1−P(X≤9)=1−0.06985≈0.930 (to 3 s.f.)\begin{aligned} P(X \ge 10) &= 1 - P(X \le 9) \\ &= 1 - 0.06985 \\ &\approx 0.930 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)} \end{aligned}

答案

0.9300.930

9(ii)

1. Find the mean rate for the 5-minute period and define the random variable.

Let YY be the number of people leaving the queue in a 5-minute period.
Since 5 minutes is 10×3010 \times 30 seconds, the mean rate must be scaled by 10.
λ=1.9×10=19\lambda = 1.9 \times 10 = 19
Y∼Po(19)Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(19)

2. Calculate the probability that at least 10 people left using the complement method.

We want to find P(Y≥10)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10). Using the complement probability:
P(Y≥10)=1−P(Y≤9)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(Y \le 9)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(Y≥10)≈1−0.008832=0.991168\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) \approx 1 - 0.008832 = 0.991168
P(Y≥10)≈0.991 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) \approx 0.991 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.9910.991

9(iii)

1. Determine the parameters for the number of people joining and leaving in 10 minutes.

Let XX be the number of people joining the queue in 10 minutes, and YY be the number of people leaving the queue in 10 minutes.
Since there are 2020 periods of 30 seconds in 10 minutes:
X∼Po(1.5×20)  ⟹  X∼Po(30)X \sim \text{Po}(1.5 \times 20) \implies X \sim \text{Po}(30)
Y∼Po(1.9×20)  ⟹  Y∼Po(38)Y \sim \text{Po}(1.9 \times 20) \implies Y \sim \text{Po}(38)

2. Find the distribution of the net change in the number of people using a Normal approximation.

Let W=X−YW = X - Y be the net change in the number of people in the queue.
Since λX>10\lambda_X > 10 and λY>10\lambda_Y > 10, we can approximate XX and YY with Normal distributions.
E(W)=E(X)−E(Y)=30−38=−8\text{E}(W) = \text{E}(X) - \text{E}(Y) = 30 - 38 = -8
Var(W)=Var(X)+Var(Y)=30+38=68\text{Var}(W) = \text{Var}(X) + \text{Var}(Y) = 30 + 38 = 68
Therefore, W∼N(−8,68)W \sim \text{N}(-8, 68) approximately.

3. Formulate the required probability with a continuity correction.

The final queue size is given by 20+W20 + W.
We are given that the final queue size is 55:
20+W=5  ⟹  W=−1520 + W = 5 \implies W = -15
Because WW is a discrete random variable approximated by a continuous Normal distribution, we apply a continuity correction:
P(W=−15)≈P(−15.5<W<−14.5)\text{P}(W = -15) \approx \text{P}(-15.5 < W < -14.5)

4. Calculate the final probability.

Using W∼N(−8,68)W \sim \text{N}(-8, 68):
P(−15.5<W<−14.5)=P(−15.5−(−8)68<Z<−14.5−(−8)68)\text{P}(-15.5 < W < -14.5) = \text{P}\left(\frac{-15.5 - (-8)}{\sqrt{68}} < Z < \frac{-14.5 - (-8)}{\sqrt{68}}\right)
=P(−7.568<Z<−6.568)= \text{P}\left(-\frac{7.5}{\sqrt{68}} < Z < -\frac{6.5}{\sqrt{68}}\right)
≈P(−0.9095<Z<−0.7882)\approx \text{P}(-0.9095 < Z < -0.7882)
≈0.0337 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.0337 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.03370.0337

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