In a school canteen, the number of people joining the noodle stall queue in a period of 30 seconds is a random variable with the distribution Po(1.5).

  1. (i)

    Find the probability that, in a period of 5 minutes, at least 10 people join the queue.

  2. (ii)

    The number of people leaving the same queue in a period of 30 seconds is a random variable with distribution Po(1.9). In a period of 5 minutes, find the probability that at least 10 people left the queue. (You may assume that there are more than 10 people in the queue.)

  3. (iii)

    Using appropriate approximations, find the probability that a queue of 20 people will be left with 5 people at the end of 10 minutes.

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Worked solution

9(i)

1. Find the mean number of people joining the queue in a 5-minute period.

A 5-minute period contains 5×6030=10\frac{5 \times 60}{30} = 10 periods of 30 seconds.
The new mean is λ=1.5×10=15\lambda = 1.5 \times 10 = 15.

2. Calculate the probability of at least 10 people joining the queue.

Let XX be the number of people joining the queue in 5 minutes.
X∼Po(15)X \sim \text{Po}(15)
We need to find P(X≥10)P(X \ge 10):
P(X≥10)=1−P(X≤9)=1−0.06985≈0.930 (to 3 s.f.)\begin{aligned} P(X \ge 10) &= 1 - P(X \le 9) \\ &= 1 - 0.06985 \\ &\approx 0.930 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)} \end{aligned}

Answer

0.9300.930

9(ii)

1. Find the mean rate for the 5-minute period and define the random variable.

Let YY be the number of people leaving the queue in a 5-minute period.
Since 5 minutes is 10×3010 \times 30 seconds, the mean rate must be scaled by 10.
λ=1.9×10=19\lambda = 1.9 \times 10 = 19
Y∼Po(19)Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(19)

2. Calculate the probability that at least 10 people left using the complement method.

We want to find P(Y≥10)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10). Using the complement probability:
P(Y≥10)=1−P(Y≤9)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(Y \le 9)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(Y≥10)≈1−0.008832=0.991168\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) \approx 1 - 0.008832 = 0.991168
P(Y≥10)≈0.991 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 10) \approx 0.991 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.9910.991

9(iii)

1. Determine the parameters for the number of people joining and leaving in 10 minutes.

Let XX be the number of people joining the queue in 10 minutes, and YY be the number of people leaving the queue in 10 minutes.
Since there are 2020 periods of 30 seconds in 10 minutes:
X∼Po(1.5×20)  ⟹  X∼Po(30)X \sim \text{Po}(1.5 \times 20) \implies X \sim \text{Po}(30)
Y∼Po(1.9×20)  ⟹  Y∼Po(38)Y \sim \text{Po}(1.9 \times 20) \implies Y \sim \text{Po}(38)

2. Find the distribution of the net change in the number of people using a Normal approximation.

Let W=X−YW = X - Y be the net change in the number of people in the queue.
Since λX>10\lambda_X > 10 and λY>10\lambda_Y > 10, we can approximate XX and YY with Normal distributions.
E(W)=E(X)−E(Y)=30−38=−8\text{E}(W) = \text{E}(X) - \text{E}(Y) = 30 - 38 = -8
Var(W)=Var(X)+Var(Y)=30+38=68\text{Var}(W) = \text{Var}(X) + \text{Var}(Y) = 30 + 38 = 68
Therefore, W∼N(−8,68)W \sim \text{N}(-8, 68) approximately.

3. Formulate the required probability with a continuity correction.

The final queue size is given by 20+W20 + W.
We are given that the final queue size is 55:
20+W=5  ⟹  W=−1520 + W = 5 \implies W = -15
Because WW is a discrete random variable approximated by a continuous Normal distribution, we apply a continuity correction:
P(W=−15)≈P(−15.5<W<−14.5)\text{P}(W = -15) \approx \text{P}(-15.5 < W < -14.5)

4. Calculate the final probability.

Using W∼N(−8,68)W \sim \text{N}(-8, 68):
P(−15.5<W<−14.5)=P(−15.5−(−8)68<Z<−14.5−(−8)68)\text{P}(-15.5 < W < -14.5) = \text{P}\left(\frac{-15.5 - (-8)}{\sqrt{68}} < Z < \frac{-14.5 - (-8)}{\sqrt{68}}\right)
=P(−7.568<Z<−6.568)= \text{P}\left(-\frac{7.5}{\sqrt{68}} < Z < -\frac{6.5}{\sqrt{68}}\right)
≈P(−0.9095<Z<−0.7882)\approx \text{P}(-0.9095 < Z < -0.7882)
≈0.0337 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.0337 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.03370.0337

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