某种病毒正在一个国家传播。 天后,感染病例数 可以用模型 来表示,其中 和 是常数。16 天后,感染病例数为 3600。4 天后,感染病例数增加到 9000。
- (a)
证明 且 。
- (b)
已知在 天后(其中 为整数),感染病例数首次超过 100,求 的值。
- (c)
描述从长期来看,感染病例数会发生什么变化。
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完整解法
2(a)
1. Form the first equation using the data for $t = 16$.
When , .
2. Form the second equation using the data for $t = 20$.
Four days later, , and .
3. Solve the simultaneous equations to find $a$ and $b$.
Equating the expressions for :
Substitute into :
Thus, and .
Shown.
2(b)
1. Set up the inequality using the given model and constants from part (a)
2. Rearrange the inequality to isolate the exponential term
3. Use logarithms to solve for t
4. Determine the smallest integer value for n
Since and is an integer, the number of infected cases first exceeds 100 after 11 days.
2(c)
1. Determine the behaviour of the exponential term as $t$ becomes very large
In the long run, .
As , , so .
2. Calculate the limiting value of $I$
Therefore, the number of infected cases approaches 10000.
The number of infected cases approaches 10000.
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