A virus is spreading in a country. The number of infected cases, II, after tt days, can be modelled by I=ab+220−tI = \frac{a}{b + 2^{20-t}}, where aa and bb are constants. The number of infected cases was 3600 after 16 days. Four days later, the number of infected cases increased to 9000.

  1. (a)

    Show that a=90000a = 90000 and b=9b = 9.

  2. (b)

    Given that the number of infected cases first exceeds 100 after nn days, where nn is an integer, find the value of nn.

  3. (c)

    Describe what happens to the number of infected cases in the long run.

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Worked solution

2(a)

1. Form the first equation using the data for $t = 16$.

When t=16t = 16, I=3600I = 3600.
3600=ab+220−163600 = \frac{a}{b + 2^{20-16}}
3600=ab+243600 = \frac{a}{b + 2^4}
3600=ab+163600 = \frac{a}{b + 16}
a=3600(b+16)a = 3600(b + 16)

2. Form the second equation using the data for $t = 20$.

Four days later, t=16+4=20t = 16 + 4 = 20, and I=9000I = 9000.
9000=ab+220−209000 = \frac{a}{b + 2^{20-20}}
9000=ab+209000 = \frac{a}{b + 2^0}
9000=ab+19000 = \frac{a}{b + 1}
a=9000(b+1)a = 9000(b + 1)

3. Solve the simultaneous equations to find $a$ and $b$.

Equating the expressions for aa:
3600(b+16)=9000(b+1)3600(b + 16) = 9000(b + 1)
3600b+57600=9000b+90003600b + 57600 = 9000b + 9000
5400b=486005400b = 48600
b=9b = 9
Substitute b=9b = 9 into a=9000(b+1)a = 9000(b + 1):
a=9000(9+1)=90000a = 9000(9 + 1) = 90000
Thus, a=90000a = 90000 and b=9b = 9.

Answer

Shown.

2(b)

1. Set up the inequality using the given model and constants from part (a)

900009+220−t>100\frac{90000}{9 + 2^{20-t}} > 100

2. Rearrange the inequality to isolate the exponential term

90000>100(9+220−t)90000 > 100(9 + 2^{20-t})
900>9+220−t900 > 9 + 2^{20-t}
891>220−t891 > 2^{20-t}

3. Use logarithms to solve for t

ln⁡(891)>ln⁡(220−t)\ln(891) > \ln(2^{20-t})
ln⁡(891)>(20−t)ln⁡2\ln(891) > (20-t)\ln 2
20−t<ln⁡891ln⁡220 - t < \frac{\ln 891}{\ln 2}
20−t<9.79920 - t < 9.799
t>10.201t > 10.201

4. Determine the smallest integer value for n

Since t>10.201t > 10.201 and nn is an integer, the number of infected cases first exceeds 100 after 11 days.
n=11n = 11

Answer

n=11n = 11

2(c)

1. Determine the behaviour of the exponential term as $t$ becomes very large

In the long run, t→∞t \to \infty.
As t→∞t \to \infty, 20−t→−∞20 - t \to -\infty, so 220−t→02^{20-t} \to 0.

2. Calculate the limiting value of $I$

I→900009+0=10000I \to \frac{90000}{9 + 0} = 10000
Therefore, the number of infected cases approaches 10000.

Answer

The number of infected cases approaches 10000.

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