两个家庭计划一起去徒步旅行。李家有 10 人,包括 3 对已婚夫妇、3 名单身男性和 1 名单身女性。陈家有 14 人,包括 4 对已婚夫妇、1 名单身男性和 5 名单身女性。随机挑选两人来组织这次徒步旅行。

  1. (a)

    证明他们都来自李家的概率为 1592\dfrac{15}{92}。

  2. (b)

    求他们是来自同一个家庭的一男一女的概率。

  3. (c)

    在已知他们是来自同一个家庭的一男一女的前提下,求他们是夫妻的概率。

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完整解法

9(a)

1. Determine the total number of people available to be chosen.

Total people=10+14=24\text{Total people} = 10 + 14 = 24

2. Calculate the probability of selecting two people from the Lee family using the multiplication rule for dependent events.

P(both from Lee family)=1024×923=1592 (shown)\text{P(both from Lee family)} = \frac{10}{24} \times \frac{9}{23} = \frac{15}{92} \text{ (shown)}

答案

\frac{15}{92}

9(b)

1. Determine the number of men and women in each family.

A married couple consists of 11 man and 11 woman.
Lee family:
Men = 33 married +3+ 3 single =6= 6
Women = 33 married +1+ 1 single =4= 4
Tan family:
Men = 44 married +1+ 1 single =5= 5
Women = 44 married +5+ 5 single =9= 9
Total people =10+14=24= 10 + 14 = 24.

2. Calculate the probability of randomly selecting a man and a woman from the Lee family.

This selection can happen in two mutually exclusive orders: (Man, then Woman) or (Woman, then Man).
P(Lee man, Lee woman)=(624×423)+(424×623)=48552P(\text{Lee man, Lee woman}) = \left(\frac{6}{24} \times \frac{4}{23}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{24} \times \frac{6}{23}\right) = \frac{48}{552}

3. Calculate the probability for the Tan family and find the total combined probability.

P(Tan man, Tan woman)=(524×923)+(924×523)=90552P(\text{Tan man, Tan woman}) = \left(\frac{5}{24} \times \frac{9}{23}\right) + \left(\frac{9}{24} \times \frac{5}{23}\right) = \frac{90}{552}
The total probability is the sum of the probabilities of these mutually exclusive events:
P(man and woman from same family)=48552+90552=138552=14P(\text{man and woman from same family}) = \frac{48}{552} + \frac{90}{552} = \frac{138}{552} = \frac{1}{4}

答案

\frac{1}{4}

9(c)

1. Calculate the probability of choosing a man and a woman from the same family (as required by part b).

Let AA be the event that a man and a woman from the same family are chosen.
From the family compositions, the Lee family has 3+3=63+3=6 men and 3+1=43+1=4 women, while the Tan family has 4+1=54+1=5 men and 4+5=94+5=9 women.
P(A)=6×4+5×924C2=24+45276=69276P(A) = \frac{6 \times 4 + 5 \times 9}{^{24}C_2} = \frac{24 + 45}{276} = \frac{69}{276}

2. Find the probability of choosing a married couple.

Let BB be the event that a married couple is chosen. Since all married couples consist of a man and a woman from the same family, BB is a subset of AA, meaning A∩B=BA \cap B = B.
Total number of married couples = 3 (Lee)+4 (Tan)=73 \text{ (Lee)} + 4 \text{ (Tan)} = 7.
P(A∩B)=P(B)=7276P(A \cap B) = P(B) = \frac{7}{276}

3. Calculate the conditional probability.

P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A)=727669276=769P(B \mid A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{\frac{7}{276}}{\frac{69}{276}} = \frac{7}{69}

答案

769\frac{7}{69}

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