在一家百货公司,单张收据消费超过 $1000 的顾客有权获得一份免费礼品。在整个促销期间,每位顾客最多只能领取一份免费礼品。平均而言,每周有 8 份免费礼品被领取。 指出一周内领取的免费礼品数量的分布。

  1. ((i))

    求在周初必须储备的免费礼品的最少数量,以确保有至少 95% 的把握在这一周内免费礼品不会送罄。

  2. ((ii))

    由于预算限制,百货公司经理计划将促销期限制在 mm 周,使得领取的免费礼品超过 50 份的概率不超过 0.1。通过使用合适的近似,求 mm 的最大整数值。指出 mm 为使该近似合适而满足的一个不等式。

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完整解法

7((i))

1. Identify the distribution of the random variable from the context.

Let XX be the number of free gifts claimed in one week.
From the question context, average claims per week is 8, so X∼Po(8)X \sim \text{Po}(8).

2. Formulate the probability inequality for the stock not running out.

Let kk be the number of free gifts kept in stock at the start of the week.
For the stock not to run out, the number of claims XX must be at most kk.
We require P(X≤k)≥0.95\mathrm{P}(X \le k) \ge 0.95.

3. Use a graphing calculator to find the least integer $k$ satisfying the inequality.

Using the cumulative probability function on a graphing calculator:
When k=12k = 12, P(X≤12)≈0.9362<0.95\mathrm{P}(X \le 12) \approx 0.9362 < 0.95
When k=13k = 13, P(X≤13)≈0.9658≥0.95\mathrm{P}(X \le 13) \approx 0.9658 \ge 0.95
Thus, the least number of free gifts that must be kept in stock is 13.

答案

13

7((ii))

1. Define the distribution for the number of free gifts claimed in $m$ weeks and state its Normal approximation.

Let WW be the number of free gifts claimed in mm weeks.
Since X∼Po(8)X \sim \text{Po}(8) for one week, W∼Po(8m)W \sim \text{Po}(8m).
For a large mean (typically λ>10\lambda > 10), the Poisson distribution can be approximated by a Normal distribution. Thus, W∼N(8m,8m)W \sim \text{N}(8m, 8m) approximately.

2. Formulate the probability inequality with continuity correction.

We are given P(W>50)≤0.1\mathrm{P}(W > 50) \le 0.1.
Applying continuity correction for the discrete to continuous approximation (since W>50W > 50 translates to the discrete values W≥51W \ge 51):
P(Wcont>50.5)≤0.1\mathrm{P}(W_{\text{cont}} > 50.5) \le 0.1

3. Standardise the Normal variable and form an inequality using the inverse Normal distribution.

P(Z>50.5−8m8m)≤0.1\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{50.5 - 8m}{\sqrt{8m}}\right) \le 0.1
From the standard Normal distribution, the critical ZZ-value for an upper tail probability of 0.10.1 is approximately 1.281551.28155.
To ensure the probability does not exceed 0.10.1, the standardised value must be greater than or equal to this critical value:
50.5−8m8m≥1.28155\frac{50.5 - 8m}{\sqrt{8m}} \ge 1.28155

4. Solve the resulting inequality to find the largest integer value of $m$.

Rearranging the inequality yields a quadratic in terms of 8m\sqrt{8m}:
8m+1.281558m−50.5≤08m + 1.28155\sqrt{8m} - 50.5 \le 0
Let y=8my = \sqrt{8m}.
y2+1.28155y−50.5≤0y^2 + 1.28155y - 50.5 \le 0
Solving the equation y2+1.28155y−50.5=0y^2 + 1.28155y - 50.5 = 0 gives y≈6.494y \approx 6.494 (rejecting the negative root).
Therefore, 8m≤6.494  ⟹  8m≤42.17  ⟹  m≤5.27\sqrt{8m} \le 6.494 \implies 8m \le 42.17 \implies m \le 5.27
The largest integer value satisfying this is m=5m = 5.

5. State the inequality satisfied by $m$ for the Normal approximation to be suitable.

For the Normal approximation to a Poisson distribution to be suitable, the mean λ\lambda must be greater than 1010.
Therefore, the inequality is:
8m>10  ⟹  m>1.258m > 10 \implies m > 1.25

答案

m=5m = 5

Inequality for approximation: 8m>108m > 10 (or m>1.25m > 1.25)

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