在可再生自然资源的采收中,理想的情况是制定政策以允许最大程度地采收自然资源,同时又不使资源消耗到可持续水平以下。针对太平洋某一特定区域野生鲑鱼种群数量变化率,设计了一个简化的采收模型,公式如下:
dPdt=P(4−P)−h,\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = P(4 - P) - h,
其中 PP 是时间为 tt 年时野生鲑鱼的种群数量(以百万为单位),hh 是恒定的采收率(以百万为单位)。

  1. (i)

    绘制出 dPdt\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} 关于 PP 的函数图象,用 hh 表示出转折点。

  2. (ii)

    最大持续产量(MSY)是指在不造成长期损耗的情况下,允许对野生鲑鱼进行可持续采收的最大采收率 hh。指出该野生鲑鱼的最大持续产量(MSY)。

  3. (iii)

    已知2015年该地区野生鲑鱼的种群数量为 3.2 百万,且恒定采收率为 3 百万。求在任意时间 tt 时 PP 的表达式。

    由此求出2016年该地区野生鲑鱼的种群数量。

  4. (iv)

    简述你在计算中做出的一个假设。

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完整解法

4(i)

1. Express the given differential equation as a quadratic in completed square form to identify the turning point.

dPdt=4P−P2−h\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = 4P - P^2 - h
=−(P2−4P)−h= -(P^2 - 4P) - h
=−[(P−2)2−4]−h= -[(P - 2)^2 - 4] - h
=−(P−2)2+4−h= -(P - 2)^2 + 4 - h
Since the coefficient of (P−2)2(P-2)^2 is negative, the graph has a maximum turning point at (2,4−h)(2, 4 - h).

2. Identify the shape and $y$-intercept for the graph sketch.

The equation describes an inverted parabola.
When P=0P = 0, dPdt=−h\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = -h.
The required sketch should display this parabolic shape passing through (0,−h)(0, -h) on the vertical axis, reaching a peak at (2,4−h)(2, 4-h).

答案

A sketch of an inverted (concave down) parabola plotted on dPdt\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} (vertical axis) against PP (horizontal axis):

  • The maximum turning point is labelled at (2,4−h)(2, 4 - h).
  • The vertical intercept is at (0,−h)(0, -h).

4(ii)

1. Use the maximum value of the rate of change to deduce the condition for sustainable harvest.

For the population to not face long-term depletion, there must be at least one value of PP where the population is not decreasing, meaning dPdt≥0\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} \ge 0.
From part (i), the expression dPdt=−(P−2)2+4−h\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = -(P - 2)^2 + 4 - h has a maximum value of 4−h4 - h.
4−h≥04 - h \ge 0
h≤4h \le 4
The largest sustainable harvest rate hh is therefore 44.

答案

44 million

4(iii)

1. Formulate the separable differential equation with the given constant harvest rate.

Substitute h=3h = 3 into the given differential equation:
dPdt=P(4−P)−3\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = P(4 - P) - 3
dPdt=−P2+4P−3\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = -P^2 + 4P - 3
dPdt=−(P2−4P+3)\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = -(P^2 - 4P + 3)

2. Separate the variables and prepare for integration by completing the square.

Separating the variables yields:
∫1P2−4P+3 dP=∫−1 dt\int \frac{1}{P^2 - 4P + 3} \, \text{d}P = \int -1 \, \text{d}t
Completing the square for the quadratic denominator:
∫1(P−2)2−12 dP=∫−1 dt\int \frac{1}{(P - 2)^2 - 1^2} \, \text{d}P = \int -1 \, \text{d}t

(Note: Using partial fractions 1P2−4P+3=1/2P−3−1/2P−1\frac{1}{P^2 - 4P + 3} = \frac{1/2}{P-3} - \frac{1/2}{P-1} is an equally valid method to prepare for integration).

3. Integrate both sides using the standard formula.

Using the standard integration result ∫1x2−a2 dx=12aln⁡∣x−ax+a∣\int \frac{1}{x^2 - a^2} \, \text{d}x = \frac{1}{2a}\ln\left|\frac{x-a}{x+a}\right|:
12(1)ln⁡∣(P−2)−1(P−2)+1∣=−t+C\frac{1}{2(1)} \ln \left| \frac{(P - 2) - 1}{(P - 2) + 1} \right| = -t + C
12ln⁡∣P−3P−1∣=−t+C\frac{1}{2} \ln \left| \frac{P - 3}{P - 1} \right| = -t + C

4. Apply the initial condition to determine the arbitrary constant $C$.

Let t=0t = 0 represent the year 2015. We are given that P=3.2P = 3.2 when t=0t = 0:
12ln⁡∣3.2−33.2−1∣=−(0)+C\frac{1}{2} \ln \left| \frac{3.2 - 3}{3.2 - 1} \right| = -(0) + C
C=12ln⁡(0.22.2)=12ln⁡(111)C = \frac{1}{2} \ln \left( \frac{0.2}{2.2} \right) = \frac{1}{2} \ln \left( \frac{1}{11} \right)

5. Rearrange to make $P$ the subject of the formula.

Substitute CC back into the integrated equation:
12ln⁡∣P−3P−1∣=−t+12ln⁡(111)\frac{1}{2} \ln \left| \frac{P - 3}{P - 1} \right| = -t + \frac{1}{2} \ln \left( \frac{1}{11} \right)
Multiply by 22:
ln⁡∣P−3P−1∣=−2t+ln⁡(111)\ln \left| \frac{P - 3}{P - 1} \right| = -2t + \ln \left( \frac{1}{11} \right)
Since P=3.2>3P = 3.2 > 3, the fraction P−3P−1>0\frac{P - 3}{P - 1} > 0. We can thus drop the absolute value signs.
P−3P−1=e−2t+ln⁡(1/11)=111e−2t\frac{P - 3}{P - 1} = e^{-2t + \ln(1/11)} = \frac{1}{11} e^{-2t}
11(P−3)=(P−1)e−2t11(P - 3) = (P - 1)e^{-2t}
11P−33=Pe−2t−e−2t11P - 33 = P e^{-2t} - e^{-2t}
P(11−e−2t)=33−e−2tP(11 - e^{-2t}) = 33 - e^{-2t}
P=33−e−2t11−e−2tP = \frac{33 - e^{-2t}}{11 - e^{-2t}}
(Note: An equivalent and equally valid algebraic form is P=33e2t−111e2t−1P = \frac{33e^{2t} - 1}{11e^{2t} - 1})

6. Calculate the population of the wild salmon in the year 2016.

The year 2016 corresponds to t=1t = 1.
P=33−e−2(1)11−e−2(1)P = \frac{33 - e^{-2(1)}}{11 - e^{-2(1)}}
P=33−e−211−e−2≈3.0249P = \frac{33 - e^{-2}}{11 - e^{-2}} \approx 3.0249
The population in 2016 is approximately 3.023.02 million.

答案

P=33−e−2t11−e−2tP = \frac{33 - e^{-2t}}{11 - e^{-2t}}

The population of the wild salmon in 2016 is approximately 3.023.02 million.

4(iv)

1. State a valid assumption required for the differential equation model to hold

For the mathematical model dPdt=P(4−P)−h\frac{\text{d}P}{\text{d}t} = P(4 - P) - h to accurately predict the population, we assume that the population changes solely due to the natural birth/death rate modelled and the specified harvesting. This means there are no sudden external environmental changes, disease outbreaks, or migration.

答案

It is assumed that there is no migration of wild salmon into or out of the region, and no other external factors such as diseases affecting the population.

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