A sample of nn observations was taken from a population of mean μ\mu and variance 10. Find the least sample size required such that the probability of the sample mean lying between μ−0.5\mu - 0.5 and μ+0.5\mu + 0.5 is more than 0.89. State an assumption that you have to make in order to proceed with this calculation.

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Worked solution

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1. Identify the distribution of the sample mean and formulate the probability inequality.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the sample mean.
Assuming the population is normally distributed, Xˉ∼N(μ,10n)\bar{X} \sim \text{N}\left(\mu, \frac{10}{n}\right).

We require:
P(μ−0.5<Xˉ<μ+0.5)>0.89\text{P}(\mu - 0.5 < \bar{X} < \mu + 0.5) > 0.89

2. Standardise the probability statement.

Standardising to the standard normal variable Z∼N(0,1)Z \sim \text{N}(0, 1):
P(μ−0.5−μ10/n<Z<μ+0.5−μ10/n)>0.89\text{P}\left( \frac{\mu - 0.5 - \mu}{\sqrt{10/n}} < Z < \frac{\mu + 0.5 - \mu}{\sqrt{10/n}} \right) > 0.89
P(−0.510/n<Z<0.510/n)>0.89\text{P}\left( -\frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} < Z < \frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} \right) > 0.89

3. Relate the symmetric interval to a single tail probability.

By the symmetry of the standard normal distribution:
2 P(Z<0.510/n)−1>0.892\,\text{P}\left( Z < \frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} \right) - 1 > 0.89
2 P(Z<0.510/n)>1.892\,\text{P}\left( Z < \frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} \right) > 1.89
P(Z<0.510/n)>0.945\text{P}\left( Z < \frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} \right) > 0.945

4. Use the inverse normal function to find the critical value and set up an inequality for $n$.

From the GC, the critical zz-value for an area of 0.9450.945 is approximately 1.598191.59819.
0.510/n>1.59819\frac{0.5}{\sqrt{10/n}} > 1.59819
0.5n10>1.59819\frac{0.5\sqrt{n}}{\sqrt{10}} > 1.59819

5. Solve for $n$ and deduce the least integer sample size.

n>1.59819×100.5\sqrt{n} > \frac{1.59819 \times \sqrt{10}}{0.5}
n>10.1079\sqrt{n} > 10.1079
n>102.169n > 102.169
Since the sample size nn must be an integer, the least sample size required is 103103.

6. State the necessary assumption for the calculations to be valid.

Assumption: We assume that the population follows a normal distribution.
(Note: Since nn is initially unknown, we cannot guarantee n≥30n \ge 30 to invoke the Central Limit Theorem upfront, making this assumption necessary to proceed.)

Answer

Least sample size: 103103

Assumption: The population follows a normal distribution.

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