Students seeking admission to Kingdom University and Island University are required to apply using their national examination scores. The scores of the prospective applicants for each university can be modelled by independent normal distributions with means and standard deviations as shown in the table.

  1. ((i))

    Kingdom University only admits the top 30% of its prospective applicants. Find the minimum score that a student must achieve in order to gain admission into this university.

  2. ((ii))

    A random sample of 5 prospective applicants of Kingdom University and a random sample of 5 prospective applicants of Island University are chosen.

    Find the probability that the difference in mean scores between the prospective students of the two universities exceeds 50,

  3. ((iii))

    Find the probability that the minimum score of these 10 prospective students is at least 500,

  4. ((iv))

    Find the probability that the total score of the 5 prospective students of Island University is more than 5 times the score of a randomly chosen prospective student of Kingdom University.

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Worked solution

13((i))

1. Define the random variable and formulate the equation for the top $30\%$.

Let XX be the score of a prospective applicant for Kingdom University.
X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \text{N}(500, 100^2)
Let kk be the minimum score required for admission.
P(X≥k)=0.30\text{P}(X \ge k) = 0.30

2. Solve for the minimum score using the inverse normal function.

P(X<k)=1−0.30=0.70\text{P}(X < k) = 1 - 0.30 = 0.70
Using a graphing calculator, k=552.440...k = 552.440...
k≈552 (to 3 s.f.)k \approx 552 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

552552

13((ii))

1. Formulate the distributions of the sample mean scores for both universities.

Let XX and YY be the scores of prospective applicants for Kingdom University and Island University respectively.
X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \text{N}(500, 100^2) and Y∼N(480,602)Y \sim \text{N}(480, 60^2)
For random samples of size 55, the sample means Xˉ\bar{X} and Yˉ\bar{Y} are distributed as:
Xˉ∼N(500,10025)  ⟹  Xˉ∼N(500,2000)\bar{X} \sim \text{N}\left(500, \frac{100^2}{5}\right) \implies \bar{X} \sim \text{N}(500, 2000)
Yˉ∼N(480,6025)  ⟹  Yˉ∼N(480,720)\bar{Y} \sim \text{N}\left(480, \frac{60^2}{5}\right) \implies \bar{Y} \sim \text{N}(480, 720)

2. Determine the distribution of the difference between the two sample means.

Let W=Xˉ−YˉW = \bar{X} - \bar{Y} be the difference in the mean scores.
E(W)=E(Xˉ)−E(Yˉ)=500−480=20\text{E}(W) = \text{E}(\bar{X}) - \text{E}(\bar{Y}) = 500 - 480 = 20
Var(W)=Var(Xˉ)+Var(Yˉ)=2000+720=2720\text{Var}(W) = \text{Var}(\bar{X}) + \text{Var}(\bar{Y}) = 2000 + 720 = 2720
Thus, W∼N(20,2720)W \sim \text{N}(20, 2720).

3. Find the probability that the absolute difference exceeds 50.

We require P(∣W∣>50)\text{P}(|W| > 50).
P(∣W∣>50)=P(W>50)+P(W<−50)\text{P}(|W| > 50) = \text{P}(W > 50) + \text{P}(W < -50)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(W>50)≈0.28257\text{P}(W > 50) \approx 0.28257
P(W<−50)≈0.08976\text{P}(W < -50) \approx 0.08976
P(∣W∣>50)≈0.28257+0.08976=0.37233\text{P}(|W| > 50) \approx 0.28257 + 0.08976 = 0.37233
P(∣W∣>50)≈0.372 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(|W| > 50) \approx 0.372 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.3720.372

13((iii))

1. Evaluate the probability that a single applicant from each university scores at least 500.

Let X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \mathrm{N}(500, 100^2) be the score of a Kingdom University applicant and Y∼N(480,602)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(480, 60^2) be the score of an Island University applicant.

For the minimum score of all 10 students to be at least 500, every single student in the sample must score at least 500.
P(X≥500)=0.5P(X \ge 500) = 0.5
P(Y≥500)=P(Z≥500−48060)=P(Z≥13)≈0.36944P(Y \ge 500) = P\left(Z \ge \frac{500 - 480}{60}\right) = P\left(Z \ge \frac{1}{3}\right) \approx 0.36944

2. Calculate the combined probability for all 10 independent students.

Since the sample students' scores are independent, we multiply their individual probabilities:
Required probability=[P(X≥500)]5×[P(Y≥500)]5\text{Required probability} = [P(X \ge 500)]^5 \times [P(Y \ge 500)]^5
=(0.5)5×(0.36944)5= (0.5)^5 \times (0.36944)^5
≈0.00021503\approx 0.00021503
≈0.000215 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.000215 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.0002150.000215

13((iv))

1. Define the random variable representing the difference between the total score of 5 Island University students and 5 times the score of a Kingdom University student, and find its expectation.

Let I∼N(480,602)I \sim \mathrm{N}(480, 60^2) and K∼N(500,1002)K \sim \mathrm{N}(500, 100^2).
Let the combined random variable be X=(I1+I2+I3+I4+I5)−5KX = (I_1 + I_2 + I_3 + I_4 + I_5) - 5K.
E(X)=5E(I)−5E(K)=5(480)−5(500)=2400−2500=−100\begin{aligned}\mathrm{E}(X) &= 5\mathrm{E}(I) - 5\mathrm{E}(K)\\&= 5(480) - 5(500)\\&= 2400 - 2500 \\&= -100\end{aligned}

2. Calculate the variance of the linear combination.

Var(X)=5Var(I)+52Var(K)=5(602)+25(1002)=5(3600)+25(10000)=18000+250000=268000\begin{aligned}\mathrm{Var}(X) &= 5\mathrm{Var}(I) + 5^2\mathrm{Var}(K)\\&= 5(60^2) + 25(100^2)\\&= 5(3600) + 25(10000)\\&= 18000 + 250000 \\&= 268000\end{aligned}

3. State the distribution of the linear combination and calculate the required probability.

Since the individual distributions are independent normal distributions, X∼N(−100,268000)X \sim \mathrm{N}(-100, 268000).
The required probability is P(X>0)\mathrm{P}(X > 0).
Using a graphing calculator:
P(X>0)≈0.42342\mathrm{P}(X > 0) \approx 0.42342
P(X>0)=0.423 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(X > 0) = 0.423 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.4230.423

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