A factory manufactures paperweights consisting of glass mounted on a wooden base. The volume of glass, in cm3\text{cm}^3, in a randomly chosen paperweight has a normal distribution with mean 56.5 and standard deviation 2.9. The volume of wood, in cm3\text{cm}^3, has an independent normal distribution with mean 38.4 and standard deviation σ\sigma. The probability that the total volume of a randomly chosen paperweight exceeds 100 cm3100\text{ cm}^3 is 0.05. Show that σ\sigma is 1.10, correct to 3 significant figures.

  1. (i)

    Find the probability that the mean volume of glass per paperweight in a random sample of 20 paperweights is less than 57.1 cm357.1\text{ cm}^3.

  2. (ii)

    Find the probability that two paperweights selected at random have volumes of wood which differ by at least 0.07 cm30.07\text{ cm}^3.

  3. (iii)

    The glass weighs 3.1 grams per cm3\text{cm}^3 and the wood weighs 0.8 grams per cm3\text{cm}^3.

    Find the probability that the total mass of a randomly chosen paperweight is between 200 and 220 grams.

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Worked solution

12(i)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean for the volume of glass.

Let GG be the volume of glass in a paperweight and Gˉ\bar{G} be the sample mean of 20 paperweights.
Since G∼N(56.5,2.92)G \sim \mathrm{N}(56.5, 2.9^2), the sample mean is exactly normally distributed:
Gˉ∼N(56.5,2.9220)\bar{G} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(56.5, \frac{2.9^2}{20}\right)

2. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is less than 57.1.

P(Gˉ<57.1)≈0.82259\mathrm{P}(\bar{G} < 57.1) \approx 0.82259

Answer

0.823

12(ii)

1. Define the random variable for the difference in volume of wood between two paperweights and find its distribution.

Let W1W_1 and W2W_2 be the volumes of wood in two randomly chosen paperweights.
E(W1−W2)=38.4−38.4=0\mathrm{E}(W_1 - W_2) = 38.4 - 38.4 = 0
Var(W1−W2)=σ2+σ2=2(1.10)2=2.42\mathrm{Var}(W_1 - W_2) = \sigma^2 + \sigma^2 = 2(1.10)^2 = 2.42
∴W1−W2∼N(0,2.42)\therefore W_1 - W_2 \sim \mathrm{N}(0, 2.42)
(Note: Using the more precise unrounded value σ2≈1.2036\sigma^2 \approx 1.2036 from the previous part gives Var(W1−W2)≈2.407\mathrm{Var}(W_1 - W_2) \approx 2.407)

2. Formulate the required probability.

The probability that the volumes differ by at least 0.07 cm30.07\text{ cm}^3 is given by:
P(∣W1−W2∣≥0.07)=1−P(−0.07<W1−W2<0.07)\mathrm{P}(|W_1 - W_2| \ge 0.07) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(-0.07 < W_1 - W_2 < 0.07)

3. Calculate the probability using a graphing calculator.

Using a graphing calculator:
P(∣W1−W2∣≥0.07)=1−0.03590…\mathrm{P}(|W_1 - W_2| \ge 0.07) = 1 - 0.03590 \dots
=0.96410…= 0.96410 \dots
≈0.964 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.964 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.9640.964

12(iii)

1. Formulate the random variable for the total mass of the paperweight.

Let GG be the volume of glass and WW be the volume of wood in a paperweight.
Let the total mass of the paperweight be MM.
Since mass is density multiplied by volume, we can express MM as a linear combination of GG and WW:
M=3.1G+0.8WM = 3.1G + 0.8W

2. Calculate the expected value of the total mass.

Since GG and WW are independent normally distributed variables, their linear combination MM is also normally distributed.
E(M)=3.1E(G)+0.8E(W)\mathrm{E}(M) = 3.1\mathrm{E}(G) + 0.8\mathrm{E}(W)
E(M)=3.1(56.5)+0.8(38.4)=175.15+30.72=205.87\mathrm{E}(M) = 3.1(56.5) + 0.8(38.4) = 175.15 + 30.72 = 205.87

3. Calculate the variance of the total mass.

Using the stated result σ=1.10\sigma = 1.10 from the problem stem:
Var(M)=3.12Var(G)+0.82Var(W)\mathrm{Var}(M) = 3.1^2\mathrm{Var}(G) + 0.8^2\mathrm{Var}(W)
Var(M)=3.12(2.92)+0.82(1.102)\mathrm{Var}(M) = 3.1^2(2.9^2) + 0.8^2(1.10^2)
Var(M)=9.61(8.41)+0.64(1.21)\mathrm{Var}(M) = 9.61(8.41) + 0.64(1.21)
Var(M)=80.8181+0.7744=81.5925\mathrm{Var}(M) = 80.8181 + 0.7744 = 81.5925

4. Calculate the probability that the total mass is between 200 and 220 grams.

We have M∼N(205.87,81.5925)M \sim \mathrm{N}(205.87, 81.5925).
We need to find P(200<M<220)\mathrm{P}(200 < M < 220).
Using a graphing calculator:
P(200<M<220)≈0.68326\mathrm{P}(200 < M < 220) \approx 0.68326
P(200<M<220)=0.683 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(200 < M < 220) = 0.683 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6830.683

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