事件 A、B 和 C 满足 P(A) = 0.8,P(B) = 0.2 且 P(C) = 0.6。已知 P(A∩B)=P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(B) 且 P(B∩C)=0.1P(B \cap C) = 0.1。

  1. (a)

    精确求出以下式子的最大和最小可能值:

    1. (i)

      P(A∩Bc∩C)P(A \cap B^c \cap C)。

    2. (ii)

      P(A∩Bc∩C  ∣  A∪C)P(A \cap B^c \cap C \;|\; A \cup C).

  2. (b)

    进一步已知 A 和 C 相互独立,求 P(A∩Bc∩C)P(A \cap B^c \cap C) 的值。

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完整解法

6(a)(i)

1. Determine the probability of $A \cap B \cap C$ using the given conditions.

Given P(A∩B)=P(B)=0.2\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = \mathrm{P}(B) = 0.2, all outcomes of BB must lie entirely within AA (i.e. B⊆AB \subseteq A). This means P(Ac∩B)=0\mathrm{P}(A^c \cap B) = 0.
Since BB is a subset of AA, the intersection B∩CB \cap C is identical to A∩B∩CA \cap B \cap C.
Therefore, P(A∩B∩C)=P(B∩C)=0.1\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = \mathrm{P}(B \cap C) = 0.1.

2. Form an inequality to find the maximum possible value by partitioning $C$.

Let x=P(A∩Bc∩C)x = \mathrm{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C).
We can partition the set CC into four mutually exclusive regions:
P(C)=P(A∩B∩C)+P(A∩Bc∩C)+P(Ac∩B∩C)+P(Ac∩Bc∩C)\mathrm{P}(C) = \mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) + \mathrm{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C) + \mathrm{P}(A^c \cap B \cap C) + \mathrm{P}(A^c \cap B^c \cap C)
0.6=0.1+x+0+P(Ac∩Bc∩C)0.6 = 0.1 + x + 0 + \mathrm{P}(A^c \cap B^c \cap C)
P(Ac∩Bc∩C)=0.5−x\mathrm{P}(A^c \cap B^c \cap C) = 0.5 - x
Since all probabilities must be non-negative, we require:
0.5−x≥0  ⟹  x≤0.50.5 - x \ge 0 \implies x \le 0.5
Thus, the maximum possible value is 0.50.5.

3. Form an inequality to find the minimum possible value using the addition rule.

The total probability of the union of AA and CC cannot exceed 11, so P(A∪C)≤1\mathrm{P}(A \cup C) \le 1.
Using the addition rule for probabilities:
P(A∪C)=P(A)+P(C)−P(A∩C)\mathrm{P}(A \cup C) = \mathrm{P}(A) + \mathrm{P}(C) - \mathrm{P}(A \cap C)
We can express P(A∩C)\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) as the sum of its mutually exclusive parts:
P(A∩C)=P(A∩B∩C)+P(A∩Bc∩C)=0.1+x\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) = \mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) + \mathrm{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C) = 0.1 + x
Substituting this into the union inequality:
0.8+0.6−(0.1+x)≤10.8 + 0.6 - (0.1 + x) \le 1
1.4−0.1−x≤11.4 - 0.1 - x \le 1
1.3−x≤1  ⟹  x≥0.31.3 - x \le 1 \implies x \ge 0.3
Thus, the minimum possible value is 0.30.3.

答案

Maximum =0.5= 0.5, Minimum =0.3= 0.3

6(a)(ii)

1. Determine the valid range for $\text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C)$ (required context from part a(i)).

Since P(A∩B)=P(B)=0.2\text{P}(A \cap B) = \text{P}(B) = 0.2, event BB is a subset of AA. This implies P(A∩B∩C)=P(B∩C)=0.1\text{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = \text{P}(B \cap C) = 0.1.
Let y=P(A∩Bc∩C)y = \text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C). The intersection A∩CA \cap C is partitioned into A∩B∩CA \cap B \cap C and A∩Bc∩CA \cap B^c \cap C, so P(A∩C)=0.1+y\text{P}(A \cap C) = 0.1 + y.
Using the addition rule, P(A∪C)=P(A)+P(C)−P(A∩C)=0.8+0.6−(0.1+y)=1.3−y\text{P}(A \cup C) = \text{P}(A) + \text{P}(C) - \text{P}(A \cap C) = 0.8 + 0.6 - (0.1 + y) = 1.3 - y.
To find the valid range for yy, we consider boundary probabilities:

  • P(A∪C)≤1  ⟹  1.3−y≤1  ⟹  y≥0.3\text{P}(A \cup C) \le 1 \implies 1.3 - y \le 1 \implies y \ge 0.3.
  • P(A∩C)≤P(C)  ⟹  0.1+y≤0.6  ⟹  y≤0.5\text{P}(A \cap C) \le \text{P}(C) \implies 0.1 + y \le 0.6 \implies y \le 0.5.
    Thus, 0.3≤y≤0.50.3 \le y \le 0.5.

2. Apply the conditional probability formula and simplify the intersection.

By the conditional probability formula:
P(A∩Bc∩C∣A∪C)=P((A∩Bc∩C)∩(A∪C))P(A∪C)\text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C \mid A \cup C) = \frac{\text{P}((A \cap B^c \cap C) \cap (A \cup C))}{\text{P}(A \cup C)}
Since A∩Bc∩CA \cap B^c \cap C is a subset of A∩CA \cap C, which is a subset of A∪CA \cup C, the intersection simplifies to just the event A∩Bc∩CA \cap B^c \cap C:
P(A∩Bc∩C∣A∪C)=P(A∩Bc∩C)P(A∪C)\text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C \mid A \cup C) = \frac{\text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C)}{\text{P}(A \cup C)}

3. Express the conditional probability strictly in terms of $y$.

Substitute the expressions derived in Step 1 into the simplified fraction:
P(A∩Bc∩C∣A∪C)=y1.3−y\text{P}(A \cap B^c \cap C \mid A \cup C) = \frac{y}{1.3 - y}
Let f(y)=y1.3−yf(y) = \frac{y}{1.3 - y}.

4. Determine the maximum and minimum values of the rational function over the domain of $y$.

To find the extreme values over 0.3≤y≤0.50.3 \le y \le 0.5, rewrite f(y)f(y):
f(y)=−(1.3−y)+1.31.3−y=1.31.3−y−1f(y) = \frac{-(1.3 - y) + 1.3}{1.3 - y} = \frac{1.3}{1.3 - y} - 1
As yy increases, the denominator (1.3−y)(1.3 - y) decreases, causing the fraction to strictly increase.

  • Minimum value (at y=0.3y=0.3):
    f(0.3)=0.31.3−0.3=0.3f(0.3) = \frac{0.3}{1.3 - 0.3} = 0.3
  • Maximum value (at y=0.5y=0.5):
    f(0.5)=0.51.3−0.5=0.50.8=58f(0.5) = \frac{0.5}{1.3 - 0.5} = \frac{0.5}{0.8} = \frac{5}{8}
答案

Maximum: 58\frac{5}{8}, Minimum: 0.30.3 (or 310\frac{3}{10})

6(b)

1. Calculate $P(A \cap C)$ using the independence of $A$ and $C$.

Since AA and CC are independent,
P(A∩C)=P(A)×P(C)P(A \cap C) = P(A) \times P(C)
P(A∩C)=0.8×0.6=0.48P(A \cap C) = 0.8 \times 0.6 = 0.48

2. Determine $P(A \cap B \cap C)$ using the given condition $P(A \cap B) = P(B)$.

We are given P(A∩B)=P(B)=0.2P(A \cap B) = P(B) = 0.2.
Since P(Ac∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.2−0.2=0P(A^c \cap B) = P(B) - P(A \cap B) = 0.2 - 0.2 = 0, event BB only occurs within event AA (i.e. B⊂AB \subset A).
Therefore, A∩B=BA \cap B = B, which means:
P(A∩B∩C)=P(B∩C)=0.1P(A \cap B \cap C) = P(B \cap C) = 0.1

3. Calculate $P(A \cap B^c \cap C)$ using the partition of $A \cap C$.

The intersection A∩CA \cap C can be split into two mutually exclusive parts: those inside BB and those outside BB.
P(A∩C)=P(A∩B∩C)+P(A∩Bc∩C)P(A \cap C) = P(A \cap B \cap C) + P(A \cap B^c \cap C)
0.48=0.1+P(A∩Bc∩C)0.48 = 0.1 + P(A \cap B^c \cap C)
P(A∩Bc∩C)=0.48−0.1=0.38P(A \cap B^c \cap C) = 0.48 - 0.1 = 0.38

答案

0.380.38

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