事件 AA 和 BB 满足 P(A)=a\text{P}(A) = a 且 P(B)=b\text{P}(B) = b。 AA 和 BB 是互斥事件。

  1. (i)

    求 P(A′∩B′)\text{P}(A' \cap B') 的表达式。

  2. (ii)

    画一个韦恩图来阐明 A′A' 和 B′B' 也是互斥事件的情况。并由此给出一个关于 aa 和 bb 的等式。

  3. (iii)

    在问题的其余部分, A′A' 和 B′B' 不是互斥事件。事件 CC 满足 P(C)=c\text{P}(C) = c。AA 和 CC 是独立事件。已知 a=0.2a = 0.2,b=0.3b = 0.3 且 P(B∩C)=0.14\text{P}(B \cap C) = 0.14。

    求 P(A∪B∪C)\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) 的表达式。

  4. (iv)

    求 P(A′∩B′∩C)\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) 的表达式。

  5. (v)

    利用第 (iii) 和第 (iv) 部分的答案,求出 cc 的取值范围。

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完整解法

8(i)

1. Relate $\text{P}(A' \cap B')$ to the union of events $A$ and $B$.

P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B)\text{P}(A' \cap B') = 1 - \text{P}(A \cup B)

2. Apply the mutually exclusive property to substitute probabilities in terms of $a$ and $b$.

Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive events, P(A∩B)=0\text{P}(A \cap B) = 0.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=a+b\text{P}(A \cup B) = \text{P}(A) + \text{P}(B) = a + b
Therefore,
P(A′∩B′)=1−(a+b)\text{P}(A' \cap B') = 1 - (a + b)

答案

1−a−b1 - a - b

8(ii)

1. Describe the required Venn diagram for the given conditions

Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive, their regions do not overlap. Since A′A' and B′B' are mutually exclusive, A′∩B′=∅A' \cap B' = \emptyset, meaning the region outside AA and BB is empty.
The Venn diagram should be a rectangular universal set box, divided entirely into two disjoint sections by a line, labelling one section AA and the other BB. (Alternatively, two disjoint circles for AA and BB can be drawn inside the rectangle, with the region outside the circles explicitly labelled as 00 or ∅\emptyset).

2. State the equation relating $a$ and $b$

Since A′A' and B′B' are mutually exclusive, P(A′∩B′)=0\text{P}(A' \cap B') = 0.
From the properties of mutually exclusive sets AA and BB, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=a+b\text{P}(A \cup B) = \text{P}(A) + \text{P}(B) = a + b.
Since P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B)\text{P}(A' \cap B') = 1 - \text{P}(A \cup B):
1−(a+b)=01 - (a + b) = 0
a+b=1a + b = 1

答案

Venn diagram: A rectangle representing the universal set, partitioned into two non-overlapping regions labelled AA and BB.
Equation: a+b=1a + b = 1

8(iii)

1. Determine the probabilities of intersection and union for the basic events using independence and mutual exclusivity.

Since AA and CC are independent:
P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)=0.2c\text{P}(A \cap C) = \text{P}(A)\text{P}(C) = 0.2c

Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=0.2+0.3=0.5\text{P}(A \cup B) = \text{P}(A) + \text{P}(B) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5

2. Apply the addition rule to find $\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C)$.

Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive, (A∩C)(A \cap C) and (B∩C)(B \cap C) are also mutually exclusive. Hence:
P((A∪B)∩C)=P(A∩C)+P(B∩C)=0.2c+0.14\text{P}((A \cup B) \cap C) = \text{P}(A \cap C) + \text{P}(B \cap C) = 0.2c + 0.14

Using the addition rule for the events (A∪B)(A \cup B) and CC:
P(A∪B∪C)=P(A∪B)+P(C)−P((A∪B)∩C)\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) = \text{P}(A \cup B) + \text{P}(C) - \text{P}((A \cup B) \cap C)
P(A∪B∪C)=0.5+c−(0.2c+0.14)\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) = 0.5 + c - (0.2c + 0.14)
P(A∪B∪C)=0.36+0.8c\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) = 0.36 + 0.8c

答案

0.36+0.8c0.36 + 0.8c

8(iv)

1. Express the required probability by subtracting the overlaps with $A$ and $B$ from the total probability of $C$.

The event A′∩B′∩CA' \cap B' \cap C represents the outcome where CC occurs, but neither AA nor BB occurs. Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive, their intersections with CC do not overlap.
P(A′∩B′∩C)=P(C)−P(A∩C)−P(B∩C)\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) = \text{P}(C) - \text{P}(A \cap C) - \text{P}(B \cap C)

2. Use the independence of $A$ and $C$ and substitute the given values to simplify the expression.

Since AA and CC are independent events, P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)=0.2c\text{P}(A \cap C) = \text{P}(A)\text{P}(C) = 0.2c.
We are given P(C)=c\text{P}(C) = c and P(B∩C)=0.14\text{P}(B \cap C) = 0.14.
P(A′∩B′∩C)=c−0.2c−0.14\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) = c - 0.2c - 0.14
=0.8c−0.14= 0.8c - 0.14

答案

0.8c−0.140.8c - 0.14

8(v)

1. Concisely obtain the expression for part (iii) and use the maximum probability bound to find an upper limit for $c$.

First, we determine the expression for P(A∪B∪C)\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) as required in (iii). Using the inclusion-exclusion principle and the independence of AA and CC (so P(A∩C)=0.2c\text{P}(A \cap C) = 0.2c):
P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−P(A∩B)−P(B∩C)−P(A∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) = \text{P}(A) + \text{P}(B) + \text{P}(C) - \text{P}(A \cap B) - \text{P}(B \cap C) - \text{P}(A \cap C) + \text{P}(A \cap B \cap C)
Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive, P(A∩B)=0\text{P}(A \cap B) = 0 and consequently P(A∩B∩C)=0\text{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = 0.
P(A∪B∪C)=0.2+0.3+c−0−0.14−0.2c+0=0.36+0.8c\text{P}(A \cup B \cup C) = 0.2 + 0.3 + c - 0 - 0.14 - 0.2c + 0 = 0.36 + 0.8c
Since the maximum possible value for any probability is 11, we have:
0.36+0.8c≤10.36 + 0.8c \le 1
0.8c≤0.64  ⟹  c≤0.80.8c \le 0.64 \implies c \le 0.8

2. Concisely obtain the expression for part (iv) and use the minimum probability bound to find a lower limit for $c$.

Next, we determine the expression for P(A′∩B′∩C)\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) as required in (iv). This event represents occurring in CC but not in AA nor BB:
P(A′∩B′∩C)=P(C)−P(C∩(A∪B))\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) = \text{P}(C) - \text{P}(C \cap (A \cup B))
Since AA and BB are mutually exclusive, P(C∩(A∪B))=P(A∩C)+P(B∩C)\text{P}(C \cap (A \cup B)) = \text{P}(A \cap C) + \text{P}(B \cap C).
P(A′∩B′∩C)=c−(0.2c+0.14)=0.8c−0.14\text{P}(A' \cap B' \cap C) = c - (0.2c + 0.14) = 0.8c - 0.14
Since probabilities cannot be negative, we have:
0.8c−0.14≥00.8c - 0.14 \ge 0
0.8c≥0.14  ⟹  c≥0.1750.8c \ge 0.14 \implies c \ge 0.175

3. Combine the bounds to state the full range of values for $c$.

Combining the inequalities gives the complete range:
0.175≤c≤0.80.175 \le c \le 0.8

答案

0.175≤c≤0.80.175 \le c \le 0.8

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